Impacts of social innovation on local energy transitions: Diffusion of solar PV and alternative fuel vehicles in Sweden

Local energy transitions are gaining widespread attention through their contribution to sustainability, notably to climate change mitigation. Social innovation (SI) in local energy transitions have been scrutinized in multiple works, but the impact of SI on the local energy transitions is an under-studied field. The objective of this study is to put forward a method to model SI in local energy transitions. This is done using System Dynamics modelling (SDM) of the local energy transitions processes. The SDM method is to study a broad spectrum of socio-techno-natural phenomena, generally. In this study, SDM is used to capture the endogenous factors which underpin the transition processes. This study is based on two cases: solar photovoltaics (PV) diffusion in Sk\ue5ne, and transition to alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) in Dalsland, Sweden. The transitions are modelled with the municipality actors providing input. Two simulation runs of the local transitions are executed, namely the Base run and No SI run. The Base run has the municipality actors’ co-creation actions. Results show that the co-creation actions induce a significant increase in the diffusion of electric vehicles in Dalsland and higher diffusion of solar PV in Sk\ue5ne. The main outcome of this study is a model to assess the possible impacts of SI on local energy transitions. Ultimately, we hope to contribute to methods of quantitatively assessing the impact of SI in local energy transitions

Determining the factors of household energy transitions: A multi-domain study

Energy transitions at the household level are important because there are so many households, and motives and barriers to these transitions processes are not well understood. The objective of this paper is to investigate explanatory variables of household energy transitions. We select papers investigating explanatory variables underpinning household energy transitions in three domains: adoption of solar photovoltaics (PV) in households, adoption/transition to sustainable residential heating systems (RHS) and adoption/transition to alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). In all three domains the chosen literature employ a wide variety of quantitative analyses such as discrete choice models ranging from multinomial logit models and principal component analysis to qualitative assessment of the answers through inductive analysis. The explanatory variables are categorized in six superordinate explanatory variable categories of economic factors, environmental factors, personal preferences and values, social factors, household characteristics and market and policy factors. In total we identify 31 explanatory variables which have been investigated in the 38 articles chosen, falling under the six categories. Investment cost is an important explanatory variable for all three domains, but a policy variable such as government subsidy could mitigate the former explanatory variable. We propose a conceptual framework as an initial step towards understanding the interactions and impacts of the explanatory variables with each other

Understanding social innovation in local energy transitions processes: A multi-case study

Social innovation (SI) in local energy transitions is gaining focus in current times but energy transitions have not yet been explicitly analysed in the context of SI. Our objective is to characterize SI in co-created local energy transitions processes through the study of three distinct cases based on energy transitions in localities in Sweden (Sk\ue5ne and Dalsland) and Denmark (Hj\uf8rring). In these localities, municipality actors (MA) are engaged in increasing the adoption of solar PV systems, uptake of EV and biogas cars, and phasing out oil-burners, respectively. We analyse the three cases by following the work of the MAs and through the frame of Transformative Social Innovation (TSI), which consists of four shades; social innovation, system innovation, game-changers, and narratives of change. Subsequently, we use causal loop diagrams to characterize the SI in the oil-burner phase-out case. We see shades of SI and system innovation but there are no ‘game changers’ or ‘narratives of change’ yet in any of the cases

Integrating the urban planning process into energy systems models for future urban heating system planning: A participatory approach

For local governments and municipalities, both urban and energy planning are required to make the transition to more energy efficient cities with lower carbon emissions. However, energy planning and urban planning are usually under the responsibility of different departments and have their own planning processes. When dealing with energy plans, this separation could lead to a less effective impact on cities in reaching climate goals since a lack of coordination may result in different strategies set out by the two plans. In consideration of the fact that space heating dominates the energy use in buildings, this study has a focus on urban heating systems in the building sector. We propose an integrative municipal heat planning methodology investigating which features of the urban planning process that could be integrated into a spatially explicit energy systems model and how. The proposed methodology is then applied to a specific case: the heating system in the municipality of Lyngby-Taarbaek, Denmark. The inclusion of stakeholders from both the heat and urban planning departments in the case study enabled us to reflect on their preferences and expectations for the future heating system. Finally, the applicability of the methodology and the application results are discussed and compared to other methods

The Impact of Local Climate Policy on District Heating Development in a Nordic city – a Dynamic Approach

On a national level, Sweden has announced plans to have no net emissions of greenhouse gases in 2045. Furthermore, Gothenburg, a city in southwestern Sweden, has plans to phase out the use of fossil fuels in its heat and electricity production by 2030. Given that the development of a district heating (DH) system under dynamic and different climate policies and climate goals is a nontrivial problem, this study investigates two different policies of phasing out fossil fuels, either by introducing a fossil fuel ban, or by increasing the carbon tax to phase out the fossil fuel use in 2030 or 2045. The effects of the different phase out strategies on the future development of the existing DH system in Gothenburg has been investigated. The study is based on a system-wide approach covering both the supply and demand side developments. A TIMES system cost optimization model representing the DH system of Gothenburg was developed and applied for calculations. The results show that the total amount of heat supplied by the DH system is unaffected by the phase out policies. The amount of natural gas used to supply the DH system is however dependent on what kind of phase out policy is implemented. A yearly linearly increasing carbon tax policy introduced in 2021 phases out fossil fuel use earlier than the target year, while a ban phases out the fossil fuel only from the actual target year

Communal or individual – Exploring cost-efficient heating of new city-level housing in a systems perspective

As cities expand, new buildings are constructed and they require heating. With increasing integration of the heating and electricity sectors and forecasts of rapid growth in electricity demand, heating choices become critical for the sustainability transition. The main heating options are communal or individual, where the communal option is represented by district heating (DH) and the individual option mainly by heat pumps or biomass heating. Which option is best from the cost perspective depends on the building type and on the energy system development. Thus, this paper investigates cost-efficient heating of new city-level housing in a systems perspective under various scenarios. The investigation was carried out using an energy systems optimization model based on a case representing Swedish conditions. A dynamic approach was used to investigate cost-efficient development of the supply side and demand side simultaneously. The results indicate that the most cost-efficient heating systems are: DH for apartment buildings; and individual heating options for single-family housing with low heat demands. For large single-family housing with high heat demands, the cost-efficient solution depends on the heat demand profile. Higher heat use during winter favors DH and individual biomass boilers, but diminishes the economic feasibility of individual heat pumps

Determining the causal loops in a local energy transition process: the Dalsland case

We aim to determine the underlying causal loops in the local energy transition process, namely transition in the transport sector, from fossil-fuel cars to electric and biogas cars in Dalsland, Sweden, and identify the impact of the co-creation efforts taken by the municipality actors. Subsequently, we are aiming to theorize and conceptually frame co-creation in the context of local energy transitions, and qualitatively determine its impact on the transitions process. Local energy transitions and co-creation have not been analysed together, especially in the context of systems thinking. We want to fill this gap, given the importance social welfare states place on co-creation. We use causal loop diagramming. We use the CLDs as a tool in our semi-structured interviews with the municipality actors. We use the interview method to question the municipality actors about the representation of the transitions processes and factors, and question them about their co-creation actions, and the impacts they have witnessed. The determination of the underlying feedback loops in the local transitions case is an iterative process, with multiple interviews with the municipality actors. Thus, we are trying to incorporate a participatory modeling framework into our methodology, in determining the causal loops in the AFVs transition process

Exploring synergies between climate and electrification goals – the cases of Ethiopia, Kenya and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Partners to the UNFCCC have been asked to make their pledges and contribute to climate change mitigation through Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Funds have been allocated to support developing countries implement climate mitigation and adaptation measures. Meanwhile, the global sustainable development agenda has also been approved, including energy and climate goals. In other words, we would expect that INDCs explore the synergies between climate and development agendas. In 2012, Ethiopia, Kenya and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) had electrification levels of 26.6%, 23% and 18% respectively. This also means the three countries had populations of 70 million, 35 million and 60 million with no access to electricity. The electricity access targets of Ethiopia, Kenya and the DRC for 2030 are 75%. The objective of this paper is to analyze how these countries improve energy access in a context of climate change mitigation. The analysis explores (i) the electricity mix aimed for, (ii) the expected GHG emissions from electricity generation until 2030, and (iii) electrification and related metrics. Ultimately, we aim at a better understanding of what these countries’ climate and development strategies encompass in terms of emissions reductions as well as electrification goals, as per reflected in their INDCs. Given the bottom-up process inherent in the INDCs and the climate agreement mechanism, the paper gives insights on how these countries have used the INDCs to prioritize sustainable electricity access. The electrification goals are achieved by increasing generation in these countries for domestic use and enabling access to generated electricity. The INDCs are an ideal platform to achieve this if generation capacity is increased by catalyzing climate finance if the expansion falls under the category of climate-appropriate technologies. The BAU case electricity generation has been computed using a simple regression model. It has been compared with targets given by the countries or multilateral organizations. The regression model’s independent variable is the GDP/capita for each individual country. These GDP/capita forecasts are also an underpinning assumption of their submitted INDCs, and thus it is reasonable to use them in the regression model to forecast electricity generation. The diversity of the power mix is calculated using the Shannon-Weiner Index. The percentage of renewable energy sources are calculated along with their share in the total potential available in each country. The results show that the three countries have different storylines as to their sustainable electricity access targets and their INDCs. Ethiopia aims at nearly 100% renewables for power in 2030, while Kenya’s renewables only generate 54% of the total electricity provided in 2030.  In the case of DRC, the renewables are very high, but the per capita electricity use is very low and it will become a power exporter. Although the climate mitigation goals for the energy sector as defined in the INDCs of the three countries are ambitious, they still have a long way to go in translating the electricity access ambitions into feasible domestic electricity use.QC 20160620</p

The role of multilateral climate funds in urban transitions between 1994 and 2014

The developing world is currently undergoing fast urbanization, and urban infrastructure systems built today are likely to influence global greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption patterns for decades to come. This study draws on the analysis of 1994–2014 climate finance investments by five major multilateral climate funds that have a record of directly supporting urban climate mitigation and adaptation actions in cities across developing countries. The analysis indicates that the administered funds provided very limited support to urban climate finance across the developing world. In middle-income countries mitigation projects within transport sector dominated both urban multilateral climate finance and co-finance. Cities in low-income countries attracted non-considerable amounts of urban climate finance, most of which were supporting urban adaptation efforts. The study concludes by outlining that multilateral climate funds should give higher priority to urban climate finance on their investment portfolios with a particular emphasis on rapidly urbanizing cities in low-income countries