Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data

Ice-melt and annual CO2-evasion of arctic lakes

<p>Dataset to the article: "<i>Ice-melt period dominates annual carbon dioxide evasion from clear-water Arctic lakes</i>".</p><p>The data concern the physicochemical parameters and CO2 evasion for the 14 studied lakes (sheet 1) Furthermore, ice-melt CO2 evasion, annual CO2 evasion and the ratio ice-melt:annual evasion, and DOC for the 14 studied and additional lakes from earlier publications is given (sheet 2).</p&gt

Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called 'early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data. © 2012 Dakos et al.Peer Reviewe