Novel methods for estimating the instantaneous and overall COVID-19 case fatality risk among care home residents in England

The COVID-19 pandemic has had high mortality rates in the elderly and frail worldwide, particularly in care homes. This is driven by the difficulty of isolating care homes from the wider community, the large population sizes within care facilities (relative to typical households), and the age/frailty of the residents. To quantify the mortality risk posed by disease, the case fatality risk (CFR) is an important tool. This quantifies the proportion of cases that result in death. Throughout the pandemic, CFR amongst care home residents in England has been monitored closely. To estimate CFR, we apply both novel and existing methods to data on deaths in care homes, collected by Public Health England and the Care Quality Commission. We compare these different methods, evaluating their relative strengths and weaknesses. Using these methods, we estimate temporal trends in the instantaneous CFR (at both daily and weekly resolutions) and the overall CFR across the whole of England, and dis-aggregated at regional level. We also investigate how the CFR varies based on age and on the type of care required, dis-aggregating by whether care homes include nursing staff and by age of residents. This work has contributed to the summary of measures used for monitoring the UK epidemic

Risk and protective factors for self-harm and suicide in children and adolescents: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol.

INTRODUCTION Self-harm and suicide are major public health concerns among children and adolescents. Many risk and protective factors for suicide and self-harm have been identified and reported in the literature. However, the capacity of these identified risk and protective factors to guide assessment and management is limited due to their great number. This protocol describes an ongoing systematic review and meta-analysis which aims to examine longitudinal studies of risk factors for self-harm and suicide in children and adolescents, to provide a comparison of the strengths of association of the various risk factors for self-harm and suicide and to shed light on those that require further investigation. METHODS AND ANALYSIS We perform a systematic search of the literature using the databases EMBASE, PsycINFO, Medline, CINAHL and HMIC from inception up to 28 October 2020, and the search will be updated before the systematic review publication. Additionally, we will contact experts in the field, including principal investigators whose peer-reviewed publications are included in our systematic review as well as investigators from our extensive research network, and we will search the reference lists of relevant reviews to retrieve any articles that were not identified in our search. We will extract relevant data and present a narrative synthesis and combine the results in meta-analyses where there are sufficient data. We will assess the risk of bias for each study using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and present a summary of the quantity and the quality of the evidence for each risk or protective factor. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION Ethical approval will not be sought as this is a systematic review of the literature. Results will be published in mental health journals and presented at conferences focused on suicide prevention. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42021228212

Novel methods for estimating the instantaneous and overall COVID-19 case fatality risk among care home residents in England.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had high mortality rates in the elderly and frail worldwide, particularly in care homes. This is driven by the difficulty of isolating care homes from the wider community, the large population sizes within care facilities (relative to typical households), and the age/frailty of the residents. To quantify the mortality risk posed by disease, the case fatality risk (CFR) is an important tool. This quantifies the proportion of cases that result in death. Throughout the pandemic, CFR amongst care home residents in England has been monitored closely. To estimate CFR, we apply both novel and existing methods to data on deaths in care homes, collected by Public Health England and the Care Quality Commission. We compare these different methods, evaluating their relative strengths and weaknesses. Using these methods, we estimate temporal trends in the instantaneous CFR (at both daily and weekly resolutions) and the overall CFR across the whole of England, and dis-aggregated at regional level. We also investigate how the CFR varies based on age and on the type of care required, dis-aggregating by whether care homes include nursing staff and by age of residents. This work has contributed to the summary of measures used for monitoring the UK epidemic

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. METHODS: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. FINDINGS: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96-1·28). INTERPRETATION: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme

Replacement of non-heme Fe(II) with Cu(II) in the alpha-ketoglutarate dependent DNA repair enzyme AlkB: spectroscopic characterization of the active site

The bacterial DNA repair enzyme AlkB is an alpha-ketoglutarate (alphaKG) dependent non-heme Fe(II) containing dioxygenase. Here we describe, for the first time, the preparation of a Cu(II)-reconstituted form of AlkB in various complexes. Spectroscopic characterization showed correct AlkB folding upon incorporation of Cu(II) in the active site. The Cu site was classified as a type 2 site by EPR spectroscopy. The accessibility of the active site metal was studied using imidazole as a probe. Although addition of imidazole did not change the EPR spectrum of the AlkB-Cu-alphaKG complex, the spectrum of the AlkB-Cu-succinate complex clearly changed, indicating binding of imidazole at the Cu site. Binding of substrate (methylated DNA) to the AlkB-Cu-alphaKG complex did not induce changes in the EPR spectrum, demonstrating that the substrate does not bind in the immediate vicinity of the metal centre. This work provides a basis for advanced EPR approaches aimed at studying the interactions and dynamics of AlkB complexes in solutio

Dynamic states of the DNA repair enzyme AlkB regulate product release

The 2-oxoglutarate (2OG)- and Fe2+-dependent dioxygenase AlkB couples the demethylation of modified DNA to the decarboxylation of 2OG. Extensive crystallographic analyses have shown no evidence of significant structural differences between complexes binding either 2OG or succinate. By using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, we have shown that the AlkB–succinate and AlkB–2OG complexes have significantly different dynamic properties in solution. 2OG makes the necessary contacts between the metal site and the large β-sheet to maintain a fully folded conformation. Oxidative decarboxylation of 2OG to succinate leads to weakening of a main contact with the large β-sheet, resulting in an enhanced dynamic state. These conformational fluctuations allow for the replacement of succinate in the central core of the protein and probably contribute to the effective release of unmethylated DNA. We also propose that the inherent dynamics of the co-product complex and the subsequent increased molecular ordering of the co-substrate complex have a role in DNA damage recognition