An alternative framework for studying the effects of family policies on fertility in the absence of individual-level data: a spatial analysis with small-scale macro data on Germany

For studying both individual-level and small-scale contextual influences on the effects of family policies on fertility, Multilevel Event History methods are the state-of-the-art. But in many countries, these methods cannot be applied because the available individual-level data are inadequate. This paper uses an alternative methodological framework that can be of help in these cases. It utilizes small-scale macro data, which is analyzed with Exploratory Data, Cluster, and Spatial Panel Model Analysis techniques. In a case study on the western German city of Bremen, the potential of this approach, as well as its limitations, are investigated. The study analyzes the impact of the parental leave reform of 1986 and the child benefit reform of 1996 on fertility levels in different city quarters (Stadtteile) of Bremen. The results indicate that both family policy reforms had, at least in the short-term, a significant impact on fertility levels. These positive effects were stronger in economically disadvantaged quarters. The findings also suggest that the reforms affected the timing more than the quantum of fertility. With regard to the methodological framework, we can conclude that the Spatial Analysis with small-scale macro data is a useful alternative when there is no individual-level data available for carrying out a Multilevel Event History Analysis.Bremen, Germany, family policies, fertility trends, methodology, spatial analysis

Culture revisited: a geographic analysis of fertility decline in Prussia

In this paper, we re-introduce geography into the analysis of fertility decline in the first demographic transition in Europe. We reanalyze Galloway et al.'s (1994) Prussian data, fitting structural models similar to those of Galloway et al. to the data and to map the residuals. Our findings give evidence both of the predictive effect of economic as well as cultural variables. However, although testing different non-spatial model specifications, a significant unexplained geographic clustering of fertility decline always remains. Indeed, adjacency to an area of large fertility decline and location along communication and transport corridors seem to be important predictors of fertility decline beyond what one would expect from structural models. This gives support to the cultural diffusion hypothesis of the Princeton European Fertility Project.German Empire, culture, diffusion of innovations, economics, fertility decline, spatial analysis

Entwicklung und Transformation im ländlichen Raum der Zentralukraine - Nachhaltige Lebenssicherungsanalyse in einer ehemals zuckerwirtschaftlichen Sowchose in der Oblast Poltava

Empirische Untersuchungen über die Auswirkungen der Transformation im ländlichen Alltagsleben der Ukraine sind nur selten zu finden. Makroökonomische und finanzpolitische Betrachtungen dominieren die Fachliteratur. Daher ist das Bild über die Veränderungen im ländlichen Raum auch noch stark von situationsbedingten Einzeleindrücken geprägt. Um diese Lücke etwas zu verringern, hat sich das Osteuropa-Institut entschlossen, eine vom Autor gekürzte Fassung der Diplomarbeit von Herrn Sebastian Klüsener, die er an der Universität Heidelberg (Prof. H.-G. Bohle) und Freiburg (Prof. J. Stadelbauer) vorlegte, in seine Veröffentlichungen mit aufzunehmen, obwohl sich diese Arbeit von den sonst in der Reihe vor allem veröffentlichten Gutachten für Ministerien deutlich unterscheidet. Die vorliegende Fallstudie beschreibt die Veränderungen der Lebensverhältnisse in einer ehemaligen Zuckerkolchose in der Zentralukraine in den letzten zehn Jahren. Sie kann für die Zentralukraine als typisch angesehen werden, selbst wenn anzunehmen ist, dass die Entwicklung in den einzelnen Gemeinden in erheblichem Umfang auch von den jeweils vor Ort agierenden Personen geprägt wird. Daher vermitteln die beschriebenen Vorgänge einen durchaus generalisierbaren Einblick in die Strukturen der ländlichen ukrainischen Gesellschaft, in ihren Wandel und die sich daraus ergebenden Probleme. Die Ergebnisse der Fallstudie sind nicht nur wissenschaftlich interessant, sondern auch für die Gestaltung von Kooperationsprojekten bedeutsam.

Towards an Integrated Understanding of Demographic Change and its Spatio-Temporal Dimensions: Concepts, Data Needs and Case Studies

Demographic change is a macro-phenomenon, driven by decisions and events at the individual level. However, individual-level events are often influenced by the spatial socioeconomic context in which the actors are embedded. This context usually changes slowly over time which suggests that the present circumstances depend to a large extent on past developments. In this paper, we outline how a GIS-based empirical research approach can deepen our understanding of the spatio-temporal dimensions of demographic change. This approach can benefit from the concepts and methods of at least three disciplines: demography, geography and historical sciences. In addition, we describe the recent improvements in the (geo-)data infrastructure, with the goal of overcoming data limitations that have so far restricted research in this field. Three case studies illustrate the potential of such an approach

Regional Mortality Disparities in Germany

While regional mortality inequalities in Germany tend to be relatively stable in the short run, over the course of the past century marked changes have occurred in the country’s regional mortality patterns. These changes include not only the re-emergence of stark differences between eastern and western Germany after 1970, which have almost disappeared again in the decades after the reunification of Germany in 1990; but also substantial changes in the disparities between northern and southern Germany. At the beginning of the twentieth century, the northern regions in Germany had the highest life expectancy levels, while the southern regions had the lowest. Today, this mortality pattern is reversed. In this paper, we study these long-term trends in spatial mortality disparities in Germany since 1910, and link them with theoretical considerations and existing research on the possible determinants of these patterns. Our findings support the view that the factors which contributed to shape spatial mortality variation have changed substantially over time, and suggest that the link between regional socioeconomic conditions and recorded mortality levels strengthened over the last 100 years

Spatial Variation of Sub-national Fertility Trends in Austria, Germany and Switzerland

Räumliche Unterschiede in der subnationalen Fertilitätsentwicklung sind für Politiker und Raumplaner von hoher Relevanz. Ziel dieses Artikels ist es, politischen Entscheidungsträgern ein theoretisches und empirisches Bezugssystem zu vermitteln. Dabei berücksichtigen wir sowohl historische und aktuelle Fertilitätstrends als auch theoretische Erklärungsansätze für die beobachteten Entwicklungen. Ein derartiges Bezugssystem ist unserer Ansicht nach wesentlich, um Aussagen über zukünftige Trends und politische Einflussmöglichkeiten geben zu können.Der theoretische Teil des Artikels beschäftigt sich mit Faktoren, die einen Einfluss auf räumliche Fertilitätsunterschiede haben können. Dies umfasst sowohl Entscheidungen und Entwicklungen in Lebensverläufen auf individueller Ebene als auch kontextuell wirkende sozioökonomische Makrophänomene, die auf unterschiedlichen geografischen Maßstabsebenen operieren können (lokal, regional, national, global). Der anschließende empirische Teil nimmt Bezug auf Eurostat-Veröffentlichungen zu räumlichen Fertilitätsunterschieden in Europa. Die Aussagekraft dieser Eurostat-Analysen ist begrenzt, da es ihnen an geografischem Detail mangelt und nur eine kurze Zeitspanne betrachtet wird. Diese Beschränkungen versuchen wir zu überwinden, indem wir für Österreich, Deutschland und die Schweiz lange Zeitreihen mit möglichst hohem geografischen Detail untersuchen. Hierfür verwenden wir historische Daten aus dem Princeton European Fertility Project und anderen Quellen, die uns erlauben, komparative räumliche Fertilitätszeitreihen für die letzten 150 Jahre zu konstruieren. Darüber hinaus präsentieren wir eine Fallstudie zu lokalen Fertilitätsentwicklungen in den Städten und Samtgemeinden des deutschen Bundeslandes Niedersachsen und den Stadtteilen der deutschen Stadt Bremen.In unserer Analyse kommen wir zu dem Ergebnis, dass die jüngst beobachtete Angleichung subnationaler Fertilitätsunterschiede – insbesondere auf makro-regionaler Ebene – sehr bemerkenswert ist. Allerdings können wir in der Langzeitbetrachtung über die letzten 150 Jahre einige Phasen identifizieren, in denen räumliche Fertilitätsunterschiede eine divergierende Entwicklung nahmen. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass das derzeitige Bild nicht notwendigerweise das Ende der Geschichte (Fukuyamas „end of history“) für die kommenden Jahrzehnte darstellt. Außerdem zeigt die Analyse der Daten auf kleinräumiger Ebene, dass, im Gegensatz zu den in allen drei Staaten beobachteten makro-regionalen Konvergenztrends, innerhalb der Stadt Bremen auf der Ebene der Stadtteile ein divergierender Trend bei den räumlichen Fertilitätsunterschieden zu erkennen ist. Dies demonstriert, dass lokale Divergenztrends parallel zu makro-regionalen Konvergenztrends ablaufen können.Sub-national trends in fertility are of great importance for policy makers and regional planners. This paper aims to provide a theoretical and empirical framework for policy makers, taking into account past and present trends in fertility, as well as their theoretical underpinnings. These will, we argue, be crucial in determining future trajectories and potential political responses to them.The theoretical part of the paper deals with the factors that may influence fertility differences at the sub-national level, including decisions and life course trajectories at the individual level, as well as contextual socio-economic phenomena operating at different geographical levels (local, regional, national, global). This is followed by an empirical section, which takes the Eurostat publications on spatial fertility differences inEuropeas a starting point. In an attempt to overcome the limitations of these reports – both in terms of the lack of geographic detail and the short time span covered – we provide more thorough overviews for Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Using historical data from the Princeton European Fertility Project and other sources, we have been able to reconstruct comparative regional fertility time series for the past 150 years. Finally, we present a case study on local fertility development in the municipalities and unified rural communities of the German state ofLower Saxonyand the districts of the German city ofBremen.Based on the results of this analysis, we conclude that the recent degree of fertility convergence between regions within countries – particularly at the macro-regional level – is, indeed, striking. However, taking a long-term perspective, we are able to identify some substantial time periods over the last 150 years in which regional fertility levels diverged. This implies that the current picture must not necessarily constitute Fukuyama’s “end of history” over the coming decades. Moreover, the study of local-level data reveals that, in contrast to the overall macro-regional fertility convergence process in all three countries, a trend towards divergence can be observed within the city of Bremen. This demonstrates that local divergence can run parallel to overall regional convergence

Adjusting Inter-censal Population Estimates for Germany 1987-2011: Approaches and Impact on Demographic Indicators

To derive reliable demographic indicators, appropriate data on population exposures are needed. Access to such data is becoming increasingly challenging in many countries due to factors such as the growing diversity of international migration patterns and the trend towards replacing full censuses with register-based censuses. Germany represents a particularly challenging case in this respect. Before Germany implemented its first register-based census in 2011, the country had not conducted a census for more than two decades. This census revealed that the number of people living in Germany in 2011 was about 1.5 million lower than the previous official post-censal population estimates for that year indicated. It is likely that a large portion of this discrepancy had existed for quite some time prior to 2011. Due to the long inter-censal period, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany decided not to produce backward-adjusted population estimates by single-year ages and sex for the whole period. The main aim of this paper is thus to make such detailed adjusted inter-censal population estimates available. While we have to take the peculiarities of the German case into account, our evaluation of different strategies offers important insights for developing a generalised methodology to adjust inter-censal population estimates for globalised countries that face challenges in ensuring the proper registration of migration events. We discuss four alternative approaches for deriving adjusted inter-censal population estimates. The results suggest that even for a rather complicated case like Germany, a relatively simple approach seems to work reasonably well. Finally, we demonstrate to what extent the implemented adjustments affect mortality indicators. The adjusted inter-censal population estimates for Germany and its federal states are provided in the online data appendix

Spatial variation in fertility across Europe : patterns and determinants

This study investigates spatial variation in fertility in Europe. We analyze spatial variation in total fertility rates using small-scale geographical data from twenty-one European countries for 2010, and investigate the role economic, sociocultural, and spatial factors play in regional fertility levels. We compare the performance of conventional OLS regression and multilevel modeling with that of different spatial regression models and show that the spatial approach is superior for modeling regional fertility variation. The analysis shows that fertility levels in a region are strongly related to GDP per capita and the share of divorced individuals in the region, and fertility levels in neighboring regions, supporting that all three realms of fertility determinants – economic sociocultural, and spatial – are relevant for understanding modern fertility variation.PostprintPeer reviewe

The extension of late working life in Germany: trends, inequalities, and the East-West divide

The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. Here, we use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onwards for the 1941-1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours, and present results for western and eastern Germany by gender, education, and occupation. While working life expectancy has increased across cohorts, we find strong regional and socioeconomic disparities. Decomposition analyses show that among males, socioeconomic differences are predominantly driven by variation in employment rates; whereas among women, variation in working hours is also highly relevant. Older eastern German women have longer working lives than older western German women, which is likely attributable to the GDR legacy of high female employment

The extension of late working life in Germany : trends, inequalities, and the East-West divide

The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. Here, we use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onwards for the 1941-1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours, and present results for western and eastern Germany by gender, education, and occupation. While working life expectancy has increased across cohorts, we find strong regional and socioeconomic disparities. Decomposition analyses show that among males, socioeconomic differences are predominantly driven by variation in employment rates; whereas among women, variation in working hours is also highly relevant. Older eastern German women have longer working lives than older western German women, which is likely attributable to the GDR legacy of high female employment