Having the Second Leg At Home - Advantage in the UEFA Champions League Knockout Phase?

In soccer knockout ties which are played in a two-legged format the team having the return match at home is usually seen as advantaged. For checking this common belief, we analyzed matches of the UEFA Champions League knockout phase since 1995. It is shown that the observed differences in frequencies of winning between teams first playing away and those which are first playing at home can be completely explained by their performances on the group stage and - more importantly - by the teams' general strength

Persistence in fluctuating environments

Understanding under what conditions interacting populations, whether they be plants, animals, or viral particles, coexist is a question of theoretical and practical importance in population biology. Both biotic interactions and environmental fluctuations are key factors that can facilitate or disrupt coexistence. To better understand this interplay between these deterministic and stochastic forces, we develop a mathematical theory extending the nonlinear theory of permanence for deterministic systems to stochastic difference and differential equations. Our condition for coexistence requires that there is a fixed set of weights associated with the interacting populations and this weighted combination of populations' invasion rates is positive for any (ergodic) stationary distribution associated with a subcollection of populations. Here, an invasion rate corresponds to an average per-capita growth rate along a stationary distribution. When this condition holds and there is sufficient noise in the system, we show that the populations approach a unique positive stationary distribution. Moreover, we show that our coexistence criterion is robust to small perturbations of the model functions. Using this theory, we illustrate that (i) environmental noise enhances or inhibits coexistence in communities with rock-paper-scissor dynamics depending on correlations between interspecific demographic rates, (ii) stochastic variation in mortality rates has no effect on the coexistence criteria for discrete-time Lotka-Volterra communities, and (iii) random forcing can promote genetic diversity in the presence of exploitative interactions.Comment: 25 page

Correlating Cell Behavior with Tissue Topology in Embryonic Epithelia

Measurements on embryonic epithelial tissues in a diverse range of organisms have shown that the statistics of cell neighbor numbers are universal in tissues where cell proliferation is the primary cell activity. Highly simplified non-spatial models of proliferation are claimed to accurately reproduce these statistics. Using a systematic critical analysis, we show that non-spatial models are not capable of robustly describing the universal statistics observed in proliferating epithelia, indicating strong spatial correlations between cells. Furthermore we show that spatial simulations using the Subcellular Element Model are able to robustly reproduce the universal histogram. In addition these simulations are able to unify ostensibly divergent experimental data in the literature. We also analyze cell neighbor statistics in early stages of chick embryo development in which cell behaviors other than proliferation are important. We find from experimental observation that cell neighbor statistics in the primitive streak region, where cell motility and ingression are also important, show a much broader distribution. A non-spatial Markov process model provides excellent agreement with this broader histogram indicating that cells in the primitive streak may have significantly weaker spatial correlations. These findings show that cell neighbor statistics provide a potentially useful signature of collective cell behavior.Comment: PLoS one 201

Coping with dating errors in causality estimation

We consider the problem of estimating causal influences between observed processes from time series possibly corrupted by errors in the time variable (dating errors) which are typical in palaeoclimatology, planetary science and astrophysics. "Causality ratio" based on the Wiener-Granger causality is proposed and studied for a paradigmatic class of model systems to reveal conditions under which it correctly indicates directionality of unidirectional coupling. It is argued that in the case of a priori known directionality, the causality ratio allows a characterization of dating errors and observational noise. Finally, we apply the developed approach to palaeoclimatic data and quantify the influence of solar activity on tropical Atlantic climate dynamics over the last two millennia. A stronger solar influence in the first millennium A.D. is inferred. The results also suggest a dating error of about 20 years in the solar proxy time series over the same period