Integer-valued APARCH processes in the analysis of time series of counts

The Asymmetric Power Arch representation for the volatility was introduced by Ding et al.(1993) in order to account for asymmetric responses in the volatility in the analysis of continuous-valued financial time series like, for instance, the log-return series of foreign exchange rates, stock indices or share prices. As reported by Brannas and Quoreshi (2010), asymmetric responses in volatility are also observed in time series of counts such as the number of intra-day transactions in stocks. In this work, an asymmetric power autoregressive conditional Poisson model is introduced for the analysis of time series of counts exhibiting asymmetric overdispersion. Basic probabilistic and statistical properties are summarized and parameter estimation is discussed. A simulation study is presented to illustrate the proposed model. Finally, an empirical application to a set of data concerning the daily number of stock transactions is also presented to attest for its practical applicability in data analysis

Hierarchical classification with a posteriori distributions: a simulation study in HIV temporal patterns

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar diferentes abordagens para identificação de grupos de pacientes VIH com padrões temporais de evolução da doença similares. Foi considerado um sistema de equações diferenciais ordinárias para caracterizar a comportamento ao longo do tempo de um paciente VIH sob tratamento antiretroviral - TAR de longo prazo, com 5 parâmetros estimados a partir de metodologia Bayesiana. As distribuições a posteriori foram usadas para quantificar distâncias (univariadas) entre pacientes, através do valor médio da distribuição a posteriori, e considerando a distância entre as distribuições a posteriori para cada parâmetro. O resultado do agrupamento hierárquico obtido pelas duas abordagens sugere que o uso de uma distância que considere a distribuição a posteriori é preferível. Trabalho futuro irá considerar distâncias multivariadas em vez de distâncias univariadas

The ESC ACCA EAPCI EORP acute coronary syndrome ST-elevation myocardial infarction registry

Aims: The Acute Cardiac Care Association (ACCA)-European Association of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (EAPCI) Registry on ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) of the EurObservational programme (EORP) of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) registry aimed to determine the current state of the use of reperfusion therapy in ESC member and ESC affiliated countries and the adherence to ESC STEMI guidelines in patients with STEMI. Methods and results: Between 1 January 2015 and 31 March 2018, a total of 11 462 patients admitted with an initial diagnosis of STEMI according to the 2012 ESC STEMI guidelines were enrolled. Individual patient data were collected across 196 centres and 29 countries. Among the centres, there were 136 percutaneous coronary intervention centres and 91 with cardiac surgery on-site. The majority of centres (129/196) were part of a STEMI network. The main objective of this study was to describe the demographic, clinical, and angiographic characteristics of patients with STEMI. Other objectives include to assess management patterns and in particular the current use of reperfusion therapies and to evaluate how recommendations of most recent STEMI European guidelines regarding reperfusion therapies and adjunctive pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments are adopted in clinical practice and how their application can impact on patients' outcomes. Patients will be followed for 1 year after admission. Conclusion: The ESC ACCA-EAPCI EORP ACS STEMI registry is an international registry of care and outcomes of patients hospitalized with STEMI. It will provide insights into the contemporary patient profile, management patterns, and 1-year outcome of patients with STEMI

Evaluation of a quality improvement intervention to reduce anastomotic leak following right colectomy (EAGLE): pragmatic, batched stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized trial in 64 countries

Background Anastomotic leak affects 8 per cent of patients after right colectomy with a 10-fold increased risk of postoperative death. The EAGLE study aimed to develop and test whether an international, standardized quality improvement intervention could reduce anastomotic leaks. Methods The internationally intended protocol, iteratively co-developed by a multistage Delphi process, comprised an online educational module introducing risk stratification, an intraoperative checklist, and harmonized surgical techniques. Clusters (hospital teams) were randomized to one of three arms with varied sequences of intervention/data collection by a derived stepped-wedge batch design (at least 18 hospital teams per batch). Patients were blinded to the study allocation. Low- and middle-income country enrolment was encouraged. The primary outcome (assessed by intention to treat) was anastomotic leak rate, and subgroup analyses by module completion (at least 80 per cent of surgeons, high engagement; less than 50 per cent, low engagement) were preplanned. Results A total 355 hospital teams registered, with 332 from 64 countries (39.2 per cent low and middle income) included in the final analysis. The online modules were completed by half of the surgeons (2143 of 4411). The primary analysis included 3039 of the 3268 patients recruited (206 patients had no anastomosis and 23 were lost to follow-up), with anastomotic leaks arising before and after the intervention in 10.1 and 9.6 per cent respectively (adjusted OR 0.87, 95 per cent c.i. 0.59 to 1.30; P = 0.498). The proportion of surgeons completing the educational modules was an influence: the leak rate decreased from 12.2 per cent (61 of 500) before intervention to 5.1 per cent (24 of 473) after intervention in high-engagement centres (adjusted OR 0.36, 0.20 to 0.64; P < 0.001), but this was not observed in low-engagement hospitals (8.3 per cent (59 of 714) and 13.8 per cent (61 of 443) respectively; adjusted OR 2.09, 1.31 to 3.31). Conclusion Completion of globally available digital training by engaged teams can alter anastomotic leak rates. Registration number: NCT04270721 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov)

Reperfusion therapies and in-hospital outcomes for ST-elevation myocardial infarction in Europe: The ACVC-EAPCI EORP STEMI Registry of the European Society of Cardiology

Aims: The aim of this study was to determine the contemporary use of reperfusion therapy in the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) member and affiliated countries and adherence to ESC clinical practice guidelines in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Methods and results: Prospective cohort (EURObservational Research Programme STEMI Registry) of hospitalized STEMI patients with symptom onset <24 h in 196 centres across 29 countries. A total of 11 462 patients were enrolled, for whom primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) (total cohort frequency: 72.2%, country frequency range 0-100%), fibrinolysis (18.8%; 0-100%), and no reperfusion therapy (9.0%; 0-75%) were performed. Corresponding in-hospital mortality rates from any cause were 3.1%, 4.4%, and 14.1% and overall mortality was 4.4% (country range 2.5-5.9%). Achievement of quality indicators for reperfusion was reported for 92.7% (region range 84.8-97.5%) for the performance of reperfusion therapy of all patients with STEMI <12 h and 54.4% (region range 37.1-70.1%) for timely reperfusion. Conclusions: The use of reperfusion therapy for STEMI in the ESC member and affiliated countries was high. Primary PCI was the most frequently used treatment and associated total in-hospital mortality was below 5%. However, there was geographic variation in the use of primary PCI, which was associated with differences in in-hospital mortality

Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy (4th edition)

In 2008, we published the first set of guidelines for standardizing research in autophagy. Since then, this topic has received increasing attention, and many scientists have entered the field. Our knowledge base and relevant new technologies have also been expanding. Thus, it is important to formulate on a regular basis updated guidelines for monitoring autophagy in different organisms. Despite numerous reviews, there continues to be confusion regarding acceptable methods to evaluate autophagy, especially in multicellular eukaryotes. Here, we present a set of guidelines for investigators to select and interpret methods to examine autophagy and related processes, and for reviewers to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of reports that are focused on these processes. These guidelines are not meant to be a dogmatic set of rules, because the appropriateness of any assay largely depends on the question being asked and the system being used. Moreover, no individual assay is perfect for every situation, calling for the use of multiple techniques to properly monitor autophagy in each experimental setting. Finally, several core components of the autophagy machinery have been implicated in distinct autophagic processes (canonical and noncanonical autophagy), implying that genetic approaches to block autophagy should rely on targeting two or more autophagy-related genes that ideally participate in distinct steps of the pathway. Along similar lines, because multiple proteins involved in autophagy also regulate other cellular pathways including apoptosis, not all of them can be used as a specific marker for bona fide autophagic responses. Here, we critically discuss current methods of assessing autophagy and the information they can, or cannot, provide. Our ultimate goal is to encourage intellectual and technical innovation in the field