Optimal Survey Strategies and Predicted Planet Yields for the Korean Microlensing Telescope Network

The Korean Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet) will consist of three 1.6m telescopes each with a 4 deg^{2} field of view (FoV) and will be dedicated to monitoring the Galactic Bulge to detect exoplanets via gravitational microlensing. KMTNet's combination of aperture size, FoV, cadence, and longitudinal coverage will provide a unique opportunity to probe exoplanet demographics in an unbiased way. Here we present simulations that optimize the observing strategy for, and predict the planetary yields of, KMTNet. We find preferences for four target fields located in the central Bulge and an exposure time of t_{exp} = 120s, leading to the detection of ~2,200 microlensing events per year. We estimate the planet detection rates for planets with mass and separation across the ranges 0.1 <= M_{p}/M_{Earth} <= 1000 and 0.4 <= a/AU <= 16, respectively. Normalizing these rates to the cool-planet mass function of Cassan (2012), we predict KMTNet will be approximately uniformly sensitive to planets with mass 5 <= M_{p}/M_{Earth} <= 1000 and will detect ~20 planets per year per dex in mass across that range. For lower-mass planets with mass 0.1 <= M_{p}/M_{Earth} < 5, we predict KMTNet will detect ~10 planets per year. We also compute the yields KMTNet will obtain for free-floating planets (FFPs) and predict KMTNet will detect ~1 Earth-mass FFP per year, assuming an underlying population of one such planet per star in the Galaxy. Lastly, we investigate the dependence of these detection rates on the number of observatories, the photometric precision limit, and optimistic assumptions regarding seeing, throughput, and flux measurement uncertainties.Comment: 29 pages, 31 figures, submitted to ApJ. For a brief video explaining the key results of this paper, please visit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5rWVjiO26

Topographic Constraints on Magma Accumulations Below the Actively Uuplifting Uturuncu and Lazufre Volcanic Centers in the Central Andes

Geodetic surveys of Volcán Uturuncu and the Lazufre volcanic complex in the Central Andes of South America reveal sustained surface uplift from magmatic intrusion at depth. However, the decadal timescales of geodetic surveys are short relative to the timescales of magma chamber growth. Thus, from geodesy alone, it is difficult to infer the deformation and hence magma accumulation history of these volcanoes. Here we combine data from InSAR, long-wavelength topography, GPS and high-resolution topographic surveys of lake shorelines and rivers, and lava flow morphology to constrain the spatial and temporal evolution of magmatism at Uturuncu and Lazufre. Near Uturuncu, dated lake shorelines show no evidence of tilting since ca. 16 ka, and we find no evidence of deformation in the long-wavelength topography. A lack of net surface displacement suggests that uplift related to a rising diapir must be less than a century old, or, more likely, magmatic inflation at Uturuncu is transient over millennial timescales and is therefore not recorded in the topography. At Lazufre, we also find no evidence for sustained uplift recorded in Late Pleistocene lake shorelines. However, the orientations of multiple dated lava flows suggest that the long-wavelength dome at the center of Lazufre’s uplift has persisted since at least 400 ka. Additionally, we find that the radial distribution of volcanic vents at Lazufre, coupled with the presence of an apical graben, is consistent with experimental and theoretical predictions of magmatic doming. The dome’s longevity indicates significant magma storage at depth, and therefore Lazufre is likely a highly evolved pre-caldera magmatic system. These two case studies demonstrate that combining geomorphic and geophysical data sets to extend the geodetic record back in time can help determine the style and magnitude of magma transport in volcanic systems

Land use change in the river basins of the Great Barrier Reef, 1860 to 2019: a foundation for understanding environmental history across the catchment to reef continuum

Land use in the catchments draining to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon has changed considerably since the introduction of livestock grazing, various crops, mining and urban development. Together these changes have resulted in increased pollutant loads and impaired coastal water quality. This study compiled records to produce annual time-series since 1860 of human population, livestock numbers and agricultural areas at the scale of surface drainage river basins, natural resource management regions and the whole Great Barrier Reef catchment area. Cattle and several crops have experienced progressive expansion interspersed by declines associated with droughts and diseases. Land uses which have experienced all time maxima since the year 2000 include cattle numbers and the areas of sugar cane, bananas and cotton. A Burdekin Basin case study shows that sediment loads initially increased with the introduction of livestock and mining, remained elevated with agricultural development, and declined slightly with the Burdekin Falls Dam construction

Fine-suspended sediment and water budgets for a large, seasonally dry tropical catchment: Burdekin River catchment, Queensland, Australia

The Burdekin River catchment (~130,400 km2) is a seasonally dry tropical catchment located in north-east Queensland, Australia. It is the single largest source of suspended sediment to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Fine sediments are a threat to ecosystems on the GBR where they contribute to elevated turbidity (reduced light), sedimentation stress, and potential impacts from the associated nutrients. Suspended sediment data collected over a 5 year period were used to construct a catchment-wide sediment source and transport budget. The Bowen River tributary was identified as the major source of end-of-river suspended sediment export, yielding an average of 530 t km−2 yr−1 during the study period. Sediment trapping within a large reservoir (1.86 million ML) and the preferential transport of clays and fine silts downstream of the structure were also examined. The data reveal that the highest clay and fine silt loads—which are of most interest to environmental managers of the GBR—are not always sourced from areas that yield the largest total suspended sediment load (i.e., all size fractions). Our results demonstrate the importance of incorporating particle size into catchment sediment budget studies undertaken to inform management decisions to reduce downstream turbidity and sedimentation. Our data on sediment source, reservoir influence, and subcatchment and catchment yields will improve understandings of sediment dynamics in other tropical catchments, particularly those located in seasonally wet-dry tropical savannah/semiarid climates. The influence of climatic variability (e.g., drought/wetter periods) on annual sediment loads within large seasonally dry tropical catchments is also demonstrated by our data

Radii of 88 M subdwarfs and updated radius relations for low-metallicity M-dwarf stars

M subdwarfs are low-metallicity M dwarfs that typically inhabit the halo population of the Galaxy. Metallicity controls the opacity of stellar atmospheres; in metal-poor stars, hydrostatic equilibrium is reached at a smaller radius, leading to smaller radii for a given effective temperature. We compile a sample of 88 stars that span spectral classes K7 to M6 and include stars with metallicity classes from solar-metallicity dwarf stars to the lowest metallicity ultra subdwarfs to test how metallicity changes the stellar radius. We fit models to Palomar Double Spectrograph (DBSP) optical spectra to derive effective temperatures (T_ eff) and we measure bolometric luminosities (L_ bol) by combining broad wavelength-coverage photometry with Gaia parallaxes. Radii are then computed by combining the T_ eff and L_ bol using the Stefan–Boltzman law. We find that for a given temperature, ultra subdwarfs can be as much as five times smaller than their solar-metallicity counterparts. We present color-radius and color-surface brightness relations that extend down to [Fe/H] of −2.0 dex, in order to aid the radius determination of M subdwarfs, which will be especially important for the WFIRST exoplanetary microlensing survey.Published versio

Surveillance guidelines for disease elimination: a case study of canine rabies

Surveillance is a critical component of disease control programmes but is often poorly resourced, particularly in developing countries lacking good infrastructure and especially for zoonoses which require combined veterinary and medical capacity and collaboration. Here we examine how successful control, and ultimately disease elimination, depends on effective surveillance. We estimated that detection probabilities of &lt;0.1 are broadly typical of rabies surveillance in endemic countries and areas without a history of rabies. Using outbreak simulation techniques we investigated how the probability of detection affects outbreak spread, and outcomes of response strategies such as time to control an outbreak, probability of elimination, and the certainty of declaring freedom from disease. Assuming realistically poor surveillance (probability of detection &lt;0.1), we show that proactive mass dog vaccination is much more effective at controlling rabies and no more costly than campaigns that vaccinate in response to case detection. Control through proactive vaccination followed by 2 years of continuous monitoring and vaccination should be sufficient to guarantee elimination from an isolated area not subject to repeat introductions. We recommend that rabies control programmes ought to be able to maintain surveillance levels that detect at least 5% (and ideally 10%) of all cases to improve their prospects of eliminating rabies, and this can be achieved through greater intersectoral collaboration. Our approach illustrates how surveillance is critical for the control and elimination of diseases such as canine rabies and can provide minimum surveillance requirements and technical guidance for elimination programmes under a broad-range of circumstances

Increased Adherence and Expression of Virulence Genes in a Lineage of Escherichia coli O157:H7 Commonly Associated with Human Infections

Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) O157:H7, a food and waterborne pathogen, can be classified into nine phylogenetically distinct lineages, as determined by single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping. One lineage (clade 8) was found to be associated with hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS), which can lead to kidney failure and death in some cases, particularly young children. Another lineage (clade 2) differs considerably in gene content and is phylogenetically distinct from clade 8, but caused significantly fewer cases of HUS in a prior study. Little is known, however, about how these two lineages vary with regard to phenotypic traits important for disease pathogenesis and in the expression of shared virulence genes.Here, we quantified the level of adherence to and invasion of MAC-T bovine epithelial cells, and examined the transcriptomes of 24 EHEC O157:H7 strains with varying Shiga toxin profiles from two common lineages. Adherence to epithelial cells was >2-fold higher for EHEC O157:H7 strains belonging to clade 8 versus clade 2, while no difference in invasiveness was observed between the two lineages. Whole-genome 70-mer oligo microarrays, which probe for 6088 genes from O157:H7 Sakai, O157:H7 EDL 933, pO157, and K12 MG1655, detected significant differential expression between clades in 604 genes following co-incubation with epithelial cells for 30 min; 186 of the 604 genes had a >1.5 fold change difference. Relative to clade 2, clade 8 strains showed upregulation of major virulence genes, including 29 of the 41 locus of enterocyte effacement (LEE) pathogenicity island genes, which are critical for adherence, as well as Shiga toxin genes and pO157 plasmid-encoded virulence genes. Differences in expression of 16 genes that encode colonization factors, toxins, and regulators were confirmed by qRT-PCR, which revealed a greater magnitude of change than microarrays.These findings demonstrate that the EHEC O157:H7 lineage associated with HUS expresses higher levels of virulence genes and has an enhanced ability to attach to epithelial cells relative to another common lineage

Mining Public Domain Data to Develop Selective DYRK1A Inhibitors

Kinases represent one of the most intensively pursued groups of targets in modern-day drug discovery. Often it is desirable to achieve selective inhibition of the kinase of interest over the remaining ∼500 kinases in the human kinome. This is especially true when inhibitors are intended to be used to study the biology of the target of interest. We present a pipeline of open-source software that analyzes public domain data to repurpose compounds that have been used in previous kinase inhibitor development projects. We define the dual-specificity tyrosine-regulated kinase 1A (DYRK1A) as the kinase of interest, and by addition of a single methyl group to the chosen starting point we remove glycogen synthase kinase β (GSK3β) and cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) inhibition. Thus, in an efficient manner we repurpose a GSK3β/CDK chemotype to deliver 8b, a highly selective DYRK1A inhibitor

Identification of Novel ERK2 substrates through use of an engineered kinase and ATP analogs

The mitogen-activated protein kinases are key regulators of cellular organization and function. To understand the mechanisms(s) by which these ubiquitous kinases affect specific cellular changes, it is necessary to identify their diverse and numerous substrates in different cell contexts and compartments. As a first step in achieving this goal, we engineered a mutant ERK2 in which a bulky amino acid residue in the ATP binding site (glutamine 103) is changed to glycine, allowing this mutant to utilize an analog of ATP (cyclopentyl ATP) that cannot be used by wild-type ERK2 or other cellular kinases. The mutation did not inhibit ERK2 kinase activity or substrate specificity in vitro or in vivo. This method allowed us to detect only ERK2-specific phosphorylations within a mixture of proteins. Using this ERK2 mutant/analog pair to phosphorylate ERK2-associated proteins in COS-1 cells, we identified the ubiquitin ligase EDD (E3 identified bydifferential display) and the nucleoporin Tpr (translocated promoter region) as two novel substrates of ERK2, in addition to the known ERK2 substrate Rsk1. To further validate the method, we present data that confirm that ERK2 phosphorylates EDD in vitro and in vivo. These results not only identify two novel ERK2 substrates but also provide a framework for the future identification of numerous cellular targets of this important signaling cascade