The Madden-Julian Oscillation: A Tool for Regional Seasonal Precipitation Outlooks?

Abstract: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an important intraseasonal climate signal which circles the global tropics, but also impacts extratropical weather regimes. Few studies have investigated whether the MJO is a source of regional seasonal climate predictability. The present objective is to determine the extent to which the season and phase (geographic location) of MJO contribute to the frequency of global rainfall anomalies in ensuing seasons. Indices of June-July-August and December-January-February MJO activity for each phase and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were correlated to three-month averages of rainfall up to a six-month lead time. Field significance was calculated and patterns of the relationships were described. In general, MJO shows some skill in regional seasonal precipitation prediction, but to a lesser extent than ENSO. However, the presence of MJO in the western Indian Ocean and near the date line did reveal a persistent and significant relationship with regional seasonal rainfall, especially over Northern Hemisphere land areas

Means and Long-Term Trends of Global Coastal Zone Precipitation

Precipitation in the coastal zone is important to the socio-economic and ecological well-being of the world. Meteorologically, precipitation is generated by unique mechanisms at the land-sea interface, which is why coastal zone precipitation is not well resolved by global climate models. Yet, to date, much more effort has been placed in analyzing global precipitation over the oceans and land. In this study, global coastal zone precipitation is quantified by selecting Global Precipitation Climatology Centre V2018 0.5° grid cells in 50 km zones from the shoreline into the interior. The transition from maritime to continental precipitation regimes is revealed in the long-term (1931–2010) average, as there is a pronounced coast-to-interior decline in rainfall from approximately 911.5 mm yr−1 within 50 km of the coast to 727.2 mm yr−1 from 100 to 150 km away from the coast. Globally, coastal zone precipitation peaks in boreal summer, extending into fall for precipitation at the coastline. Dividing the long-term record into early and late 40-year periods reveals an increasing trend in precipitation in the coastal zone, with the interior increasing faster than at the coastline. Averaging over 30-year climate normals from 1931–60 to 1981–2010 further confirms this result. A seasonal analysis reveals that the upward trends, and discrepancy between the coast and inland are maximized in the austral summer season. Interestingly, from May to September there is a declining trend in rainfall at the coastline, whereas the interior only shows minimal declines in August and September. Potential forcing mechanisms that could favor a wetter interior coastal zone include changes in the sea breeze circulation, urban heat island effect, or precipitation content associated with synoptic systems or monsoonal circulations

Lighting the fire : facilitating great book discussions

Presented April 10, 2014Using examples from Scott's experience facilitating book discussions, he provides a relatively straightforward approach to book discussions that has led to more of that sought-after "buzz" being associated with these events

Using thesauri to understand faculty research

Presentation to the UMKC Libraries PSP Forum, June 11, 2013Title from PDF, viewed on March 12, 201

Introduction to Effective Use of Library Services

UMKC Libraries and the UMKC Student Veterans Organizatio

The other Wes Moore : one name, two fates

Book Discussion Presentation for the 2013 Social Justice Lecture Series on October 9, 2013 in the iX Theatre of Miller Nichols LibraryThis presentation is a discussion of the book, The Other Wes Moore : One Name, Two Fates which chronicles the lives of two kids with the same name who were born blocks apart in the same decaying city within a few years of each other. One grew up to be a Rhodes Scholar, army officer, White House Fellow, and business leader. The other is serving a life sentence in prison.UMKC Division of Diversity Access and Equity, and UMKC Librarie

Synthesis and Characterization of Iron Pyrite Nanocrystals for Photovoltaic Devices

Iron pyrite nanocrystals have been synthesized using a hot-injection method with a variety of amines and characterized with properties necessary for photovoltaic devices. The iron pyrite nanocrystals were characterized using X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, optical absorption, micro-Raman, and micro-Photoluminescence. The optical absorbance spectra showed the large absorption in the visible and near infrared spectral range for the nanocrystals as well as to show the band gap. The face-centered cubic crystal structure of the iron pyrite nanocrystals was shown by matching the measured X-ray diffraction pattern to a face-centered cubic iron pyrite reference pattern. Using Bragg\u27s law and Scherrer\u27s formula helps to calculate the grain size and lattice spacing based upon the X-ray diffraction pattern. The scanning electron microscopy produces images that show the particle size of the nanocrystals while the transmission electron microscopy produced images that show the lattice spacing and grain size for the iron pyrite nanocrystals that are compared to the previously mentioned calculated grain size and lattice spacing. The micro-Raman and micro-Photoluminescence are used to compare the synthesized iron pyrite nanocrystals to natural-bulk iron pyrite. The micro-Photoluminescence is also used to calculate a band gap and compare this band gap to the one obtain by the optical absorbance spectra

A Neural Network Method for Mixture Estimation for Vegetation Mapping

While most forest maps identify only the dominant vegetation class in delineated stands, individual stands are often better characterized by a mix of vegetation types. Many land management applications, including wildlife habitat studies, can benefit from knowledge of mixes. This paper examines various algorithms that use data from the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite to estimate mixtures of vegetation types within forest stands. Included in the study are maximum likelihood classification and linear mixture models as well as a new methodology based on the ARTMAP neural network. Two paradigms are considered: classification methods, which describe stand-level vegetation mixtures as mosaics of pixels, each identified with its primary vegetation class; and mixture methods, which treat samples as blends of vegetation, even at the pixel level. Comparative analysis of these mixture estimation methods, tested on data from the Plumas National Forest, yields the following conclusions: (1) accurate estimates of proportions of hardwood and conifer cover within stands can be obtained, particularly when brush is not present in the understory; (2) ARTMAP outperforms statistical methods and linear mixture models in both the classification and the mixture paradigms; (3) topographic correction fails to improve mapping accuracy; and (4) the new ARTMAP mixture system produces the most accurate overall results. The Plumas data set has been made available to other researchers for further development of new mapping methods and comparison with the quantitative studies presented here, which establish initial benchmark standards.National Science Foundation (IRI 94-0165, SBR 95-13889); Office of Naval Research (N00014-95-1-0409, N00014-95-0657); Region 5 Remote Sensing Laboratory of the U.S. Forest Servic

Recovery and Reconstruction of Principles of Academic Debate as Dialectical Model: An Outline of a Procedural Model of Argumentative Rationality

Academic debate theory has developed over 125 years. According to debate theory, reasonable argumentation satisfies six obligations: (1) self-administration; (2) making prima facie/presumptively adequate moves; (3) clash; (4) meeting the burden of proof; (5) rejoinder/rebuttal; and (6) extension. These obligations define a kind of procedural rationality of argumentation distinct from the kinds of rationality elaborated by logical and rhetorical theories. Those obligations are grounded in the pragmatics of conversation and visible in debate practice