Impacto da pandemia de COVID-19 na micro e minigeração distribuída fotovoltaica no Brasil: seleção e análise de indicador representativo

Na busca pela sustentabilidade no setor energético, a energia solar fotovoltaica (FV) vem-se destacando como solução para promover o desenvolvimento sustentável. À medida que a tecnologia FV se expande, surge a necessidade de estudos para a avaliação de como o novo mercado se comporta diante de diferentes cenários, com a consequente elaboração de indicadores diversos. Seguindo uma abordagem interdisciplinar e baseado no paradigma epistemológico da Design Science, o objetivo do presente estudo foi analisar, após seleção e avaliação, indicadores que reflitam um possível impacto da pandemia de COVID-19 no mercado de Micro e Minigeração Distribuída Fotovoltaica no Brasil (MMGD) nos anos de 2020 e 2021. Para tanto, caracterizou-se, por meio de revisão sistemática da literatura (RSL), o estado da arte a respeito do impacto da pandemia de COVID-19 no mercado fotovoltaico e de indicadores aplicados a sistemas fotovoltaicos. Com subsídios da RSL e conforme a literatura de base sobre o assunto, selecionou-se o indicador Potência Mensal Instalada de sistemas fotovoltaicos. Efetuou-se então a análise deste por meio de alimentação do indicador, por meio de consulta em banco de dados abertos da Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL). Identificou-se que, com a sensibilização geral inicial causada pelo primeiro pico da pandemia de COVID-19, o mercado fotovoltaico sofreu redução na Potência Mensal Instalada; porém, passado esse momento inicial, observou-se a recuperação do indicador, o que sugere capacidade de resiliência e de adaptação desse mercado, superando as dificuldades e novos desafios encontrados e mantendo o ritmo de crescimento observado antes da pandemia.In the search for sustainability in the energy sector, photovoltaic solar energy (PV) has been highlighted as a solution to promote sustainable development. As PV technology expands, there is a need for studies to assess how the new market behaves in different scenarios with the consequent elaboration of different indicators. Following an interdisciplinary approach, and based on the epistemological paradigm of Design Science, the objective of this study was to analyse, preceded by selection and evaluation, indicators that reflect a possible impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Micro and Mini Photovoltaic Distributed Generation (MMDG) market in Brazil in 2020 and 2021. To do so, it was characterized through a systematic literature review - SLR, the state of the art about impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the photovoltaic market and photovoltaic systems indicators. Subsidized by RSL and supported by the core literature on the subject, the Photovoltaic Systems Monthly Installed Power Capacity indicator was selected. Then, the analysis of this was carried out, by means of feeding the indicator using a query in the open database of the brazilian National Electric Energy Agency - ANEEL. It was identified that with the initial general awareness, caused by the first peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the photovoltaic market suffered a reduction in the Monthly Installed Power Capacity, however, after this initial moment, the indicator recovered, suggesting a capacity for resilience and adaptation of this market, overcoming the difficulties and new challenges encountered, maintaining the pace of growth observed before the pandemic

Panorama of the insertion of grid connected photovoltaic generation supported by REN N° 482/2012 of ANEEL in Brazil, Parana and Curitiba

In the search for sustainable development, the energy issue is one of the main focuses, facing the difficulties of the paradigm of sustainable development, where it is necessary to reconcile the maintenance of the supply of energy inputs with the maintenance in the short and long term of environmental, social , ethical, cultural, economic, spatial and political needs of society. In this context, renewable sources of electricity generation are identified as a solution to promote sustainable development in the electric power generation sector. Photovoltaic generation, in turn, presents itself as an already consolidated way of implementing sustainable development in the energy sector. The unpredictability of the photovoltaic scenario, especially of micro and mini distributed generation supported by REN No. 482/2012 of ANEEL, makes difficult the elaboration of growth forecasts and consequently the planning of the sector. Thus, it is necessary to draw a panorama of how the insertion of this segment in the Brazilian territory and in several space cuts is identified, identifying the usual characteristics of these SFV and understanding how its process of dissemination and consolidation occurs in Brazil, thus making , the expansion of photovoltaic generation better understood and harnessed in its technical, urban and social aspects. The research showed the trend of increasing the participation of the centralized PV generation versus the distributed PV generation; the rapid evolution of distributed photovoltaic power installed in Brazil as well as in Paraná and Curitiba; the typical profile of a photovoltaic system installed in different classes of consumer units; that centralized generation systems are located near the sites with the highest solar irradiance, while distributed generation systems are concentrated in large urban centers; that most of the SFVCRs of distributed generation in the state of Paraná are located in the areas of greatest irradiation in the state; the regions with the highest power and amount of SFV per capta. Thus, this work allowed a broad understanding of different aspects of the expansion of the photovoltaic generation of micro and mini distributed generation in Brazil, the State of Paraná and the City of Curitiba.Na conjuntura de busca pelo desenvolvimento sustentável, a questão energética assume um dos focos principais, enfrentando as dificuldades do paradigma do desenvolvimento sustentável, onde é necessário conciliar a manutenção do fornecimento de insumos energéticos com a manutenção no curto e longo prazo das necessidades ambientais, sociais, éticas, culturais, econômicas, espaciais e políticas da sociedade. Neste contexto, as fontes renováveis de geração de energia elétrica se apresentam como uma solução de promover o desenvolvimento sustentável no setor de geração de energia elétrica. A geração fotovoltaica, por sua vez, se apresenta como uma já consolidada forma de se implementar o desenvolvimento sustentável no setor energético. A imprevisibilidade do cenário fotovoltaico, sobretudo de micro e minigeração distribuída amparada pela REN Nº 482/2012 da ANEEL, dificulta a elaboração de previsões de crescimento e consequentemente o planejamento do setor. Assim, faz-se necessário traçar um panorama de como se dá a inserção deste segmento no território brasileiro através de diversos recortes espaciais, identificando-se as características usuais destes SFV e entendendo como ocorre o seu processo de disseminação e consolidação no Brasil, tornando assim, a expansão da geração fotovoltaica melhor compreendida e aproveitada em seus aspectos técnicos, urbanos e sociais. A pesquisa mostrou a tendência de aumento da participação da geração FV centralizada frente à geração FV distribuída; a rápida evolução da potência fotovoltaica distribuída instalada tanto no Brasil quanto no Paraná e Curitiba; o perfil típico de um sistema fotovoltaico instalado em diferentes classes de unidades consumidoras; que os sistemas de geração centralizada estão localizados próximos aos locais de maior irradiação solar, ao passo que os sistemas de geração distribuída concentram-se nos grandes centros urbanos; que grande parte dos SFVCR de geração distribuída no estado do Paraná está localizada nas áreas de maior irradiação do estado; as regiões com maior potência e quantidade de SFV per capta. Assim, este trabalho permitiu compreender de forma ampla e sobre diferentes aspectos como está ocorrendo a expansão da geração fotovoltaica de micro e minigeração distribuída e centralizada no Brasil, no Estado do Paraná e na Cidade de Curitiba

Mapping and Characterization of the Grid-connected Photovoltaic Systems in the City of Curitiba: Preliminary Results

ABSTRACT This work presents the mapping of grid-connected photovoltaic systems supported by the Normative Resolution (NR) of the National Agency of Electric Energy (ANEEL) Nº 482/2012 in the city of Curitiba. Firstly, a brief introduction was made justifying the reasons that led to the development of this study, followed by the explanation about the methodology, procedures and criteria adopted in the study. A general mapping of all on-grid photovoltaic systems supported by NR Nº 482/2012 installed in the city of Curitiba, identified by class, is presented, indicating how the urban distribution of these photovoltaic systems occurs, and it is possible to observe in which regions the highest prevalence of installations occurs. From this, the general characterization of these photovoltaic systems is performed, classifying them by class, number of installed systems, power, number of modules, total occupied area, average power of modules and average efficiency of photovoltaic systems. Considerations are also raised regarding the reliability of the Database of Distributed Generation Consumer Units made available by ANEEL

Tocilizumab for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. The single-arm TOCIVID-19 prospective trial

BackgroundTocilizumab blocks pro-inflammatory activity of interleukin-6 (IL-6), involved in pathogenesis of pneumonia the most frequent cause of death in COVID-19 patients.MethodsA multicenter, single-arm, hypothesis-driven trial was planned, according to a phase 2 design, to study the effect of tocilizumab on lethality rates at 14 and 30 days (co-primary endpoints, a priori expected rates being 20 and 35%, respectively). A further prospective cohort of patients, consecutively enrolled after the first cohort was accomplished, was used as a secondary validation dataset. The two cohorts were evaluated jointly in an exploratory multivariable logistic regression model to assess prognostic variables on survival.ResultsIn the primary intention-to-treat (ITT) phase 2 population, 180/301 (59.8%) subjects received tocilizumab, and 67 deaths were observed overall. Lethality rates were equal to 18.4% (97.5% CI: 13.6-24.0, P=0.52) and 22.4% (97.5% CI: 17.2-28.3, P<0.001) at 14 and 30 days, respectively. Lethality rates were lower in the validation dataset, that included 920 patients. No signal of specific drug toxicity was reported. In the exploratory multivariable logistic regression analysis, older age and lower PaO2/FiO2 ratio negatively affected survival, while the concurrent use of steroids was associated with greater survival. A statistically significant interaction was found between tocilizumab and respiratory support, suggesting that tocilizumab might be more effective in patients not requiring mechanical respiratory support at baseline.ConclusionsTocilizumab reduced lethality rate at 30 days compared with null hypothesis, without significant toxicity. Possibly, this effect could be limited to patients not requiring mechanical respiratory support at baseline.Registration EudraCT (2020-001110-38); clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04317092)

Núcleos de Ensino da Unesp: artigos 2008

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq