A Convex Framework for Optimal Investment on Disease Awareness in Social Networks

We consider the problem of controlling the propagation of an epidemic outbreak in an arbitrary network of contacts by investing on disease awareness throughout the network. We model the effect of agent awareness on the dynamics of an epidemic using the SAIS epidemic model, an extension of the SIS epidemic model that includes a state of "awareness". This model allows to derive a condition to control the spread of an epidemic outbreak in terms of the eigenvalues of a matrix that depends on the network structure and the parameters of the model. We study the problem of finding the cost-optimal investment on disease awareness throughout the network when the cost function presents some realistic properties. We propose a convex framework to find cost-optimal allocation of resources. We validate our results with numerical simulations in a real online social network.Comment: IEEE GlobalSIP Symposium on Network Theor

Assessing Dengue Risk Globally Using Non-Markovian Models

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The worldwide spread of these mosquitoes and the increasing disease burden have emphasized the need for a spatio-temporal risk map capable of assessing dengue outbreak conditions and quantifying the outbreak risk. Given that the life cycle of Aedes mosquitoes is strongly influenced by habitat temperature, numerous studies have utilized temperature-dependent development rates of these mosquitoes to construct virus transmission and outbreak risk models. In this study, we advance existing research by developing a mechanistic model for the mosquito life cycle that accurately accounts for the non-Markovian nature of the process. By fitting the model to data on human dengue cases, we estimate several model parameters, allowing the development of a global spatiotemporal dengue risk map. This risk model employs temperature and precipitation data to assess the environmental suitability for dengue outbreaks in a given area. Furthermore, we demonstrate how to reduce the model to the corresponding differential equations, enabling us to utilize existing methods for analyzing the system and fitting the model to observations. This approach can be further applied to similar non-Markovian processes that are currently described with less accurate Markovian models

Estimation of swine movement network at farm level in the US from the Census of Agriculture data

Citation: Moon, S. A., Ferdousi, T., Self, A., & Scoglio, C. M. (2019). Estimation of swine movement network at farm level in the US from the Census of Agriculture data. Scientific Reports, 9(1), 6237. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-42616-wSwine movement networks among farms/operations are an important source of information to understand and prevent the spread of diseases, nearly nonexistent in the United States. An understanding of the movement networks can help the policymakers in planning effective disease control measures. The objectives of this work are: (1) estimate swine movement probabilities at the county level from comprehensive anonymous inventory and sales data published by the United States Department of Agriculture - National Agriculture Statistics Service database, (2) develop a network based on those estimated probabilities, and (3) analyze that network using network science metrics. First, we use a probabilistic approach based on the maximum information entropy method to estimate the movement probabilities among different swine populations. Then, we create a swine movement network using the estimated probabilities for the counties of the central agricultural district of Iowa. The analysis of this network has found evidence of the small-world phenomenon. Our study suggests that the US swine industry may be vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks because of the small-world structure of its movement network. Our system is easily adaptable to estimate movement networks for other sets of data, farm animal production systems, and geographic regions

Understanding the role of sexual transmission in the spread of ZIKA virus using an individual-based interconnected population model

Citation: Tanver, F., Lee, C., Mcvey, D., & Scoglio, S. (2018). Understanding the role of sexual transmission in the spread of ZIKA virus using an individual-based interconnected population model. Pre-Print, Unpublished Manuscript.Zika virus has affected the world as a long-term threat. Modeling its transmission is important in order to facilitate forecasts and control measures. We propose a novel node-based interconnected population model to simulate both vectored and sexual transmission of Zika virus. Using a sexual contact network, we incorporate heterogeneous mixing in the host population with stochastic transmission for realistic predictions. We also incorporate climatic variations in our model, which affect the mosquito vector population and consequently the arbovirus transmission. We perform extensive simulations to understand the effects of sexual transmission rate and network topology on the spreading of infections. Sexual transmission contributes to the epidemic spread and under certain conditions, can sustain it up to several months without vectors. This can potentially lead to recurrences once the mosquitoes overwinter. We also find that sexual transmission can have a stronger effect when vectored transmission is relatively weaker due to climatic conditions. Our results show that vectored and sexual transmission affect the disease dynamics differently

Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network

Citation: Ferdousi, T., Cohnstaedt, L. W., McVey, D. S., & Scoglio, C. M. (2019). Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network. Scientific Reports, 9(1), 7253. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-43651-3The recent outbreaks of the insect-vectored Zika virus have demonstrated its potential to be sexually transmitted, which complicates modeling and our understanding of disease dynamics. Autochthonous outbreaks in the US mainland may be a consequence of both modes of transmission, which affect the outbreak size, duration, and virus persistence. We propose a novel individual-based interconnected network model that incorporates both insect-vectored and sexual transmission of this pathogen. This model interconnects a homogeneous mosquito vector population with a heterogeneous human host contact network. The model incorporates the seasonal variation of mosquito abundance and characterizes host dynamics based on age group and gender in order to produce realistic projections. We use a sexual contact network which is generated on the basis of real world sexual behavior data. Our findings suggest that for a high relative transmissibility of asymptomatic hosts, Zika virus shows a high probability of sustaining in the human population for up to 3 months without the presence of mosquito vectors. Zika outbreaks are strongly affected by the large proportion of asymptomatic individuals and their relative transmissibility. The outbreak size is also affected by the time of the year when the pathogen is introduced. Although sexual transmission has a relatively low contribution in determining the epidemic size, it plays a role in sustaining the epidemic and creating potential endemic scenarios

Using GENI for experimental evaluation of Software Defined Networking in smart grids

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) envisions a smart grid that aggressively explores advance communication network solutions to facilitate real-time monitoring and dynamic control of the bulk electric power system. At the distribution level, the smart grid integrates renewable generation and energy storage mechanisms to improve the reliability of the grid. Furthermore, dynamic pricing and demand management provide customers an avenue to interact with the power system to determine the electricity usage that best satisfies their lifestyle. At the transmission level, efficient communication and a highly automated architecture provide visibility in the power system and as a result, faults are mitigated faster than they can propagate. However, such higher levels of reliability and efficiency rest on the supporting communication infrastructure. To date, utility companies are moving towards Multiprotocol Label Switching (MPLS) because it supports traffic engineering and virtual private networks (VPNs). Furthermore, it provides Quality of Service (QoS) guarantees and fail-over mechanisms in addition to meeting the requirement of non-routability as stipulated by NERC. However, these benefits come at a cost for the infrastructure that supports the fullMPLS specification. With this realization and given a two week implementation and deployment window in GENI, we explore the modularity and flexibility provided by the low cost OpenFlow Software Defined Networking (SDN) solution. In particular, we use OpenFlow to provide 1.) automatic fail-over mechanisms, 2.) a load balancing, and 3.) Quality of Service guarantees: all essential mechanisms for smart grid networks

Identifying Highly Connected Counties Compensates for Resource Limitations when Evaluating National Spread of an Invasive Pathogen

Surveying invasive species can be highly resource intensive, yet near-real-time evaluations of invasion progress are important resources for management planning. In the case of the soybean rust invasion of the United States, a linked monitoring, prediction, and communication network saved U.S. soybean growers approximately $200 M/yr. Modeling of future movement of the pathogen (Phakopsora pachyrhizi) was based on data about current disease locations from an extensive network of sentinel plots. We developed a dynamic network model for U.S. soybean rust epidemics, with counties as nodes and link weights a function of host hectarage and wind speed and direction. We used the network model to compare four strategies for selecting an optimal subset of sentinel plots, listed here in order of increasing performance: random selection, zonal selection (based on more heavily weighting regions nearer the south, where the pathogen overwinters), frequency-based selection (based on how frequently the county had been infected in the past), and frequency-based selection weighted by the node strength of the sentinel plot in the network model. When dynamic network properties such as node strength are characterized for invasive species, this information can be used to reduce the resources necessary to survey and predict invasion progress

Biologically Informed Individual-Based Network Model for Rift Valley Fever in the US and Evaluation of Mitigation Strategies

Citation: Scoglio, C. M., Bosca, C., Riad, M. H., Sahneh, F. D., Britch, S. C., Cohnstaedt, L. W., & Linthicum, K. J. (2016). Biologically Informed Individual-Based Network Model for Rift Valley Fever in the US and Evaluation of Mitigation Strategies. Plos One, 11(9), 26. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0162759Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease endemic in sub-Saharan Africa with periodic outbreaks in human and animal populations. Mosquitoes are the primary disease vectors; however, Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) can also spread by direct contact with infected tissues. The transmission cycle is complex, involving humans, livestock, and multiple species of mosquitoes. The epidemiology of RVFV in endemic areas is strongly affected by climatic conditions and environmental variables. In this research, we adapt and use a network-based modeling framework to simulate the transmission of RVFV among hypothetical cattle operations in Kansas, US. Our model considers geo-located livestock populations at the individual level while incorporating the role of mosquito populations and the environment at a coarse resolution. Extensive simulations show the flexibility of our modeling framework when applied to specific scenarios to quantitatively evaluate the efficacy of mosquito control and livestock movement regulations in reducing the extent and intensity of RVF outbreaks in the United States

Understanding the implementation of evidence-based care: A structural network approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Recent study of complex networks has yielded many new insights into phenomenon such as social networks, the internet, and sexually transmitted infections. The purpose of this analysis is to examine the properties of a network created by the 'co-care' of patients within one region of the Veterans Health Affairs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were obtained for all outpatient visits from 1 October 2006 to 30 September 2008 within one large Veterans Integrated Service Network. Types of physician within each clinic were nodes connected by shared patients, with a weighted link representing the number of shared patients between each connected pair. Network metrics calculated included edge weights, node degree, node strength, node coreness, and node betweenness. Log-log plots were used to examine the distribution of these metrics. Sizes of k-core networks were also computed under multiple conditions of node removal.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 4,310,465 encounters by 266,710 shared patients between 722 provider types (nodes) across 41 stations or clinics resulting in 34,390 edges. The number of other nodes to which primary care provider nodes have a connection (172.7) is 42% greater than that of general surgeons and two and one-half times as high as cardiology. The log-log plot of the edge weight distribution appears to be linear in nature, revealing a 'scale-free' characteristic of the network, while the distributions of node degree and node strength are less so. The analysis of the k-core network sizes under increasing removal of primary care nodes shows that about 10 most connected primary care nodes play a critical role in keeping the <it>k</it>-core networks connected, because their removal disintegrates the highest <it>k</it>-core network.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Delivery of healthcare in a large healthcare system such as that of the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) can be represented as a complex network. This network consists of highly connected provider nodes that serve as 'hubs' within the network, and demonstrates some 'scale-free' properties. By using currently available tools to explore its topology, we can explore how the underlying connectivity of such a system affects the behavior of providers, and perhaps leverage that understanding to improve quality and outcomes of care.</p