Convection in an African Easterly Wave over West Africa and the Eastern Atlantic: a Model Case Study of Hurricane Helene (2006) and its Interaction with the Saharan Air Layer

Convective systems over West Africa and the eastern Atlantic embedded in the African Easterly wave out of which Hurricane Helene (2006) developed are investigated by means of potential temperature and relative vorticity budgets. The tropical cyclogenesis of Helene was accompanied by several mineral dust outbreaks. The influence of the dust-radiation interaction on the processes leading to the formation of Helene is analysed. The study is based on COSMO and COSMO-ART model runs

Mid-Level Dry Air Intrusions over the southern Maritime Continent

Patterns in extreme precipitation across the Maritime Continent in southeast Asia are known to be modulated by many processes, from large-scale modes of variability such as the Madden–Julian oscillation, to finer-scale mechanisms such as the diurnal cycle. Transient mid-level dry air intrusions are an example of a feature not extensively studied over the Maritime Continent, which has the potential to influence rainfall patterns. Here, we show that these dry air intrusions originate from upper level disturbances along the subtropical jet. Mid-level cyclonic circulation anomalies northwest of Australia from December to February (DJF) intensify westerlies in the southern Maritime Continent, advecting dry air eastward. In contrast, mid-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies northwest of Australia from June to August (JJA) intensify southern Maritime Continent easterlies, advecting dry air westward. The resultant transport direction of associated air parcels is also dependent on the seasonal low-level monsoon circulation. Dry air intrusions are important in influencing low-level wind and rainfall patterns, suppressing rainfall over seas near the southern Maritime Continent in both seasons, as well as over southern Maritime Continent islands in DJF and the Indian Ocean in JJA. In both seasons there is enhanced rainfall to the east of the intrusion, where there is moist return flow to the extratropics. This study highlights the importance of synoptic-scale extratropical features in influencing meteorological patterns in the Tropics

A local-to-large scale view of Maritime Continent rainfall: control by ENSO, MJO, and equatorial waves

The canonical view of the Maritime Continent (MC) diurnal cycle is deep convection occurring over land during the afternoon and evening, tending to propagate offshore overnight. However, there is considerable day-to-day variability in the convection, and the mechanism of the offshore propagation is not well understood. We test the hypothesis that large-scale drivers such as ENSO, the MJO, and equatorial waves, through their modification of the local circulation, can modify the direction or strength of the propagation, or prevent the deep convection from triggering in the first place. Taking a local-to-large scale approach, we use in situ observations, satellite data, and reanalyses for five MC coastal regions, and show that the occurrence of the diurnal convection and its offshore propagation is closely tied to coastal wind regimes that we define using the k-means cluster algorithm. Strong prevailing onshore winds are associated with a suppressed diurnal cycle of precipitation, while prevailing offshore winds are associated with an active diurnal cycle, offshore propagation of convection, and a greater risk of extreme rainfall. ENSO, the MJO, equatorial Rossby waves, and westward mixed Rossby–gravity waves have varying levels of control over which coastal wind regime occurs, and therefore on precipitation, depending on the MC coastline in question. The large-scale drivers associated with dry and wet regimes are summarized for each location as a reference for forecasters

Impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation and equatorial waves on tracked mesoscale convective systems over southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is a region dominated by high-impact weather, but numerical weather prediction here is a challenge owing to the complex orography and interactions between small- and large-scale phenomena. Localised mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) can produce intense precipitation. Here, we track MCSs over a 5-year period in Himawari satellite data, characterise the distribution of MCSs in the region, and investigate how they are modulated by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and equatorial waves. Between 10°S and 10°N in southeast Asia, MCSs account for 45–70% of the precipitation during boreal extended winter (November–April). Over most of the region, the fractional MCS contribution to rainfall is higher than average on days with extreme rainfall (>55%). Long-lived (>12 hr) MCSs contribute disproportionately, providing 85% of the rainfall despite comprising only 34% of all MCSs. Variability in MCS rainfall accounts for >50% of the total rainfall variability during an MJO cycle, mostly due to larger numbers of MCSs in convectively active MJO phases. Variations in MCS size and mean rain rate due to shifts in the stratiform proportion provide compensating effects. In the west of the region, a shift to faster moving MCSs in active MJO phases and slower moving MCSs in inactive phases resulted in fast-moving MCSs having the greatest impact on the MJO-associated variability. Variability is larger in the west than in the east. Equatorial Kelvin waves modulate MCS rainfall, with MCSs accounting for 20–50% of local rainfall anomalies. This variability is again enhanced in the west. By contrast, rainfall anomalies due to westward-propagating mixed Rossby–gravity waves and Rossby-1 waves are dominated by tropical-cyclone-related rainfall. Skill at local scales may be extracted from forecasts of subseasonal drivers such as the MJO and Kelvin waves, by understanding how these modulate the number and characteristics of MCSs

Why is the tropical cyclone boundary layer not "well-mixed"?

Plausible diagnostics for the top of the tropical cyclone boundary layer include (i) the top of the layer of strong frictional inflow and (ii) the top of the “well-mixed” layer; that is, the layer over which potential temperature θ is approximately constant. Observations show that these two candidate definitions give markedly different results in practice, with the inflow layer being roughly twice the depth of the layer of nearly constant θ. Here, we will present an analysis of the thermodynamics of the tropical cyclone boundary layer derived from an axisymmetric model. We show that the marked dry static stability in the upper part of the inflow layer is due largely to diabatic effects. The radial wind varies strongly with height, and therefore so does radial advection of θ. This process also stabilizes the boundary layer, but to a lesser degree than diabatic effects. We also show that this differential vertical advection contributes to the observed superadiabatic layer adjacent to the ocean surface, where the vertical gradient of the radial wind is reversed, but that the main cause of this unstable layer is heating from turbulent dissipation. The top of the “well-mixed” layer is thus distinct from the top of the boundary layer in tropical cyclones. The top of the inflow layer is a better proxy for the top of the boundary layer, but is not without limitations. These results may have implications for boundary-layer parameterisations that diagnose the boundary layer depth from thermodynamic, or partly thermodynamic, criteria

Revisiting gradient wind balance in tropical cyclones using dropsonde observations

This study diagnoses the degree of gradient wind balance (GWB) in dropsonde observations of 30 tropical cyclones (TCs) divided into 91 intense observation periods. The diagnosed GWB in these observation periods are composited to investigate which characteristics of a TC are significantly related to departures from GWB. This analysis confirms that on average the flow above the boundary layer is approximately in GWB. Supergradient flow is more common near the radius of maximum wind (RMW) in the upper boundary layer than above in the free troposphere or outside the RMW and is also more common in strong storms than in weak storms. In contrast, the degree of GWB does not differ between intensifying, steady‐state and weakening storms. Storms with a peaked wind profile have a higher probability of showing supergradient winds than those with a flat wind profile. The comparison of two commonly used functions to fit observations shows that the diagnosing GWB from dropsonde observations is highly dependent on the analysis technique. The agradient wind magnitude and even sign is shown to depend on which of these functions is used to fit the observations. The use of a polynomial fit consistently diagnoses the presence of supergradient winds far more frequently than a piece‐wise function, and also shows a marked degree of imbalance above the boundary layer. Therefore, caution is warranted when determining the degree of GWB with a polynomial fit

Examining the dynamics of a Borneo vortex using a balance approximation tool

Cyclonic vortices that are weaker than tropical storm category can bring heavy precipitation as they propagate across the South China Sea and across surrounding countries. Here we investigate the structure and dynamics responsible for the intensification of a Borneo vortex that moved from the north of Borneo across the South China Sea and impacted Vietnam and Thailand in late October 2018. This case study is examined using Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) simulations 5 and an idealised semi-geotriptic (SGT) balance approximation tool. Satellite observations and a MetUM simulation with 4.4 km grid initialised at 12 UTC on 21 October 2018, show that the westward-moving vortex is characterised by a coherent maximum in total column water, and by a comma-shaped precipitation structure with the heaviest rainfall to the northwest of the circulation centre. The Borneo vortex is comprised of a low-level cyclonic circulation and a mid-level wave embedded in the background easterly shear flow, which strengthens with height up to around 7 km. Despite being in the Tropics at 6� N, the 10 low-level vortex and mid-level wave are well represented by SGT balance dynamics. The mid-level wave propagates along a vertical gradient in moist stability, i.e., the product between the specific humidity and the static stability, at 4.5 to 5 km and is characterised by a coherent signature in the potential vorticity, meridional wind, and balanced vertical velocity fields. The vertical motion is dominated by coupling with diabatic heating and in quadrature with the potential vorticity so that the diabatic wave propagates westwards, relative to the flow, at a rate consistent with prediction from moist semi-geostrophic theory. Initial 15 vortex development at low levels is consistent with baroclinic growth initiated by the mid-level diabatic Rossby wave, which propagates on baroclinic shear flow on the southern flank of a large-scale cold surge

The role of density currents and gravity waves in the offshore propagation of convection over Sumatra

The Maritime Continent experiences some of the world's most severe convective rainfall, with an intense diurnal cycle. A key feature is offshore propagation of convection overnight, having peaked over land during the evening. Existing hypotheses suggest this propagation is due to the nocturnal land breeze and environmental wind causing low-level convergence; and/or gravity waves triggering convection as they propagate. We use a convection-permitting configuration of the Met Office Unified Model over Sumatra to test these hypotheses, verifying against observations from the Japanese Years of the Maritime Continent field campaign. In selected case studies there is an organised squall line propagating wit the land breeze density current, possibly reinforced by convective cold pools, at approx. 3 m s-1 to around 150-300 km offshore. Propagation at these speeds is also seen in a composite diurnal cycle. The density current is verified by observations, with offshore low-level wind and virtual potential temperature showing a rapid decrease consistent with a density current front, accompanied by rainfall. Gravity waves are identified in the model with a typical phase speed of 16 m s-1. They trigger isolated cells of convection, usually further offshore and with much weaker precipitation than the squall line. Occasionally, the isolated convection may deepen and the rainfall intensify, if the gravity wave interacts with a substational pre-existing perturbation such as shallow cloud. The localised convection triggered by gravity waves does not generally propagate at the wave's own speed, but this phenomemon may appear as propagation along a wave trajectory in a composite that averages over many days of the diurnal cycle

The African SWIFT project: growing science capability to bring about a revolution in weather prediction

Africa is poised for a revolution in the quality and relevance of weather predictions, with potential for great benefits in terms of human and economic security. This revolution will be driven by recent international progress in nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, theoretical tropical dynamics and forecast communication, but will depend on suitable scientific investment being made. The commercial sector has recognized this opportunity and new forecast products are being made available to African stakeholders. At this time, it is vital that robust scientific methods are used to develop and evaluate the new generation of forecasts. The GCRF African SWIFT project represents an international effort to advance scientific solutions across the fields of nowcasting, synoptic and short-range severe weather prediction, subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, user engagement and forecast evaluation. This paper describes the opportunities facing African meteorology and the ways in which SWIFT is meeting those opportunities and identifying priority next steps. Delivery and maintenance of weather forecasting systems exploiting these new solutions requires a trained body of scientists with skills in research and training; modelling and operational prediction; communications and leadership. By supporting partnerships between academia and operational agencies in four African partner countries, the SWIFT project is helping to build capacity and capability in African forecasting science. A highlight of SWIFT is the coordination of three weather-forecasting “Testbeds” – the first of their kind in Africa – which have been used to bring new evaluation tools, research insights, user perspectives and communications pathways into a semi-operational forecasting environment