Approaches towards practical adaptive management options for selected water-related sectors in South Africa in a context of climate change

As a point of departure, the South African water-related sector is placed within the broader climate change context. Following on brief explanations of the terms adaptation, adaptive management and adaptive capacity, a summary of recent (2011) findings on projections of climate change effects on hydrological responses over South Africa is presented as the scientific cornerstone to practical adaptive management options. These options are based on the identification of major categories and subcategories in which adaptive capacity can be enhanced, the identification of 17 sectors within the broader South African water-related community which are likely to be impacted by climate change and the identification of the range of foreseen changes that these various sectors are likely to have to cope with, and adapt to, as a consequence of projected changes in climate drivers and hydrological responses. Five sectors are then selected for detailed case studies on adaptive management options, viz. national water planners, municipalities, rain-fed (dryland) agriculture, the insurance industry and aquatic ecosystems. The paper concludes by stressing the importance of adaptation to climate change and briefly outlines further plans of action in this field.Keywords: climate change, South Africa, water sector, adaptation option

Development of a framework for an integrated time-varying agrohydrological forecast system for Southern Africa: Initial results for seasonal forecasts

Uncertainty about hydro-climatic conditions in the immediate future (today), as well as the near (up to one week) and more distant futures (up to one season) remains a fundamental problem challenging decision makers in the fields such as water resources, agriculture, and many other water-sensitive sectors in Southern Africa. Currently many institutions, such as the SA Weather Service, provide weather and climate forecasts with lead times ranging from 1 d to one season. However, disconnects exist between the weather/climate forecasts and their links to agrohydrological models, and in the applications of forecast information for targeted agricultural and water-related decision-making. The skills level of the current weather and climate forecasts, and the mismatch in scales between the output from weather/climate models and the spatial scales at which hydrological models are applied, as well as the format of seasonal forecasts in that they cannot be used directly in agrohydrological models, are some of the problems identified in this study and are being addressed. This has necessitated the development of a GIS-based framework in which the ‘translation’ of weather and climate forecasts into more tangible agrohydrological forecasts such as streamflows, reservoir levels or crop yields is facilitated for all the inter-linked quaternary catchments for enhanced economic, environmental and societal decision making over South Africa in general, and in selected catchments in particular. For monthly and seasonal (i.e. 3-month lead time) forecasts, two methods, viz. the Historical Sequence Method and the Ensemble Re-Ordering Method have been developed to translate the triplet of forecast rainfall probabilities (i.e. above, near and below normal) into daily quantitative values of rainfall for use in hydrological models. The first method was applied together with the daily time step ACRU Model to simulate seasonal flow forecasts in the Mgeni catchment in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In taking account of uncertainty in the seasonal rainfall forecasts through the process of translating these to daily streamflow simulations by the ACRU Model, some skilful initial forecasts of streamflows can be obtained which can assist decision makers to take protective action against the impacts of hydro-climatic variability.Keywords: GIS-based framework, translation of rainfall forecasts, ACRU Model, streamflow forecastin

A hydrological perspective of the February 2000 floods : a case study in the Sabie River catchment

The exceptionally heavy rains which fell over the north-eastern parts of South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe during February 2000 resulted in disastrous flooding, loss of hundreds of lives and severe damage to infrastructure. The objective of the study reported in this paper is to assess the severity, from a probabilistic perspective, and spatial variability of the extreme rainfall and flooding which occurred in the north-eastern part of South Africa during February 2000. This is performed for events ranging from 1 to 7 days in duration using the Sabie River catchment, upstream of the South African/Mozambique border, as an example. The analyses indicate that the floods experienced in the Sabie catchment during February 2000 were the result of rare rainfall with return periods in excess of 200 years in parts of the catchment. The extent of the extreme rainfall increased for longer durations. The magnitudes of the February 2000 floods were such that many gauging stations did not function and numerous gauging structures were inundated. Hence, a modelling approach was adopted to investigate the spatial variability, magnitudes and probabilities of the floods which occurred during February 2000 in the Sabie catchment. The return periods of simulated runoff depths for durations of 1 to 7 days generally exceeded 50 years for the upper and middle portions of the catchment and 200 years in some parts of the Sabie catchment. Hence, some extremely large and rare flow depths were experienced and the spatial variability of the return periods associated with the simulated runoff depths varied substantially within the catchment. WaterSA Vol.27(3) 2001: 325-33

The visitor from an ancient galaxy: A planetary companion around an old, metal-poor red horizontal branch star

We report the detection of a planetary companion around HIP 13044, a metal-poor red horizontal branch star belonging to a stellar halo stream that results from the disruption of an ancient Milky Way satellite galaxy. The detection is based on radial velocity observations with FEROS at the 2.2-m MPG/ESO telescope. The periodic radial velocity variation of P=16.2 days can be distinguished from the periods of the stellar activity indicators. We computed a minimum planetary mass of 1.25 Jupiter masses and an orbital semimajor axis of 0.116 AU for the planet. This discovery is unique in three aspects: First, it is the first planet detection around a star with a metallicity much lower than few percent of the solar value; second, the planet host star resides in a stellar evolutionary stage that is still unexplored in the exoplanet surveys; third, the planetary system HIP 13044 most likely has an extragalactic origin in a disrupted former satellite of the Milky Way.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, 2 tables, submitted to the Proceedings of the 276th IAU Symposium "The Astrophysics of Planetary Systems

Environmental differences between sites control the diet and nutrition of the carnivorous plant Drosera rotundifolia

Background and aims: Carnivorous plants are sensitive to small changes in resource availability, but few previous studies have examined how differences in nutrient and prey availability affect investment in and the benefit of carnivory. We studied the impact of site-level differences in resource availability on ecophysiological traits of carnivory for Drosera rotundifolia L. Methods: We measured prey availability, investment in carnivory (leaf stickiness), prey capture and diet of plants growing in two bogs with differences in N deposition and plant available N: Cors Fochno (0.62 g m−2 yr.−1, 353 μg l−1), Whixall Moss (1.37 g m−2 yr.−1, 1505 μg l−1). The total N amount per plant and the contributions of prey/root N to the plants’ N budget were calculated using a single isotope natural abundance method. Results: Plants at Whixall Moss invested less in carnivory, were less likely to capture prey, and were less reliant on prey-derived N (25.5% compared with 49.4%). Actual prey capture did not differ between sites. Diet composition differed – Cors Fochno plants captured 62% greater proportions of Diptera. Conclusions: Our results show site-level differences in plant diet and nutrition consistent with differences in resource availability. Similarity in actual prey capture may be explained by differences in leaf stickiness and prey abundance

Isolation and fine mapping of Rps6: An intermediate host resistance gene in barley to wheat stripe rust

A plant may be considered a nonhost of a pathogen if all known genotypes of a plant species are resistant to all known isolates of a pathogen species. However, if a small number of genotypes are susceptible to some known isolates of a pathogen species this plant maybe considered an intermediate host. Barley (Hordeum vulgare) is an intermediate host for Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici (Pst), the causal agent of wheat stripe rust. We wanted to understand the genetic architecture underlying resistance to Pst and to determine whether any overlap exists with resistance to the host pathogen, Puccinia striiformis f. sp. hordei (Psh). We mapped Pst resistance to chromosome 7H and show that host and intermediate host resistance is genetically uncoupled. Therefore, we designate this resistance locus Rps6. We used phenotypic and genotypic selection on F2:3 families to isolate Rps6 and fine mapped the locus to a 0.1 cM region. Anchoring of the Rps6 locus to the barley physical map placed the region on two adjacent fingerprinted contigs. Efforts are now underway to sequence the minimal tiling path and to delimit the physical region harbouring Rps6. This will facilitate additional marker development and permit identification of candidate genes in the region

Nut production in Bertholletia excelsa across a logged forest mosaic: implications for multiple forest use

Although many examples of multiple-use forest management may be found in tropical smallholder systems, few studies provide empirical support for the integration of selective timber harvesting with non-timber forest product (NTFP) extraction. Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa, Lecythidaceae) is one of the world’s most economically-important NTFP species extracted almost entirely from natural forests across the Amazon Basin. An obligate out-crosser, Brazil nut flowers are pollinated by large-bodied bees, a process resulting in a hard round fruit that takes up to 14 months to mature. As many smallholders turn to the financial security provided by timber, Brazil nut fruits are increasingly being harvested in logged forests. We tested the influence of tree and stand-level covariates (distance to nearest cut stump and local logging intensity) on total nut production at the individual tree level in five recently logged Brazil nut concessions covering about 4000 ha of forest in Madre de Dios, Peru. Our field team accompanied Brazil nut harvesters during the traditional harvest period (January-April 2012 and January-April 2013) in order to collect data on fruit production. Three hundred and ninety-nine (approximately 80%) of the 499 trees included in this study were at least 100 m from the nearest cut stump, suggesting that concessionaires avoid logging near adult Brazil nut trees. Yet even for those trees on the edge of logging gaps, distance to nearest cut stump and local logging intensity did not have a statistically significant influence on Brazil nut production at the applied logging intensities (typically 1–2 timber trees removed per ha). In one concession where at least 4 trees ha-1 were removed, however, the logging intensity covariate resulted in a marginally significant (0.09) P value, highlighting a potential risk for a drop in nut production at higher intensities. While we do not suggest that logging activities should be completely avoided in Brazil nut rich forests, when a buffer zone cannot be observed, low logging intensities should be implemented. The sustainability of this integrated management system will ultimately depend on a complex series of socioeconomic and ecological interactions. Yet we submit that our study provides an important initial step in understanding the compatibility of timber harvesting with a high value NTFP, potentially allowing for diversification of forest use strategies in Amazonian Perù

Current challenges in software solutions for mass spectrometry-based quantitative proteomics

This work was in part supported by the PRIME-XS project, grant agreement number 262067, funded by the European Union seventh Framework Programme; The Netherlands Proteomics Centre, embedded in The Netherlands Genomics Initiative; The Netherlands Bioinformatics Centre; and the Centre for Biomedical Genetics (to S.C., B.B. and A.J.R.H); by NIH grants NCRR RR001614 and RR019934 (to the UCSF Mass Spectrometry Facility, director: A.L. Burlingame, P.B.); and by grants from the MRC, CR-UK, BBSRC and Barts and the London Charity (to P.C.