Integrating Ecosystem and Urban Services in Policy-Making at the Local Scale: The SOFA Framework

Despite ecosystem services having been broadly studied in the scientific literature, they are still hardly integrated in policy-making and landscape management. The lack of operative tools for their application is a main limiting factor of such operationalization. In this work, a framework including 53 livability services produced by the biophysical and socioeconomic subsystem, or by their interaction, was developed considering a local study area. All the services were characterized in terms of the need to access their Service Benefiting Areas (SBAs, the geographical units where the services benefit consumers) from the Use Regions (URs, the usual location of users). Moreover, the Service-Providing Areas (SPAs, the geographical unit where the service is produced) were also classified and characterized. Such analysis, together with empirical observations, helped to classify the spatial relationships between the SPAs, SBAs and URs of each service. In addition to a list of detailed information about all the services included in the framework, a visual scheme representing the different SBA types and an operational flow diagram synthesizing the spatial organization of service flow were designed to apply the methodology in other study areas. Two examples show the practical applicability in policy-making of the whole framework for supporting different aspects of local decision-making

Cultural landscapes and behavioral transformations:An agent-based model for the simulation and discussion of alternative landscape futures in East Lesvos, Greece

Agricultural intensification and abandonment have been identified as two of the more prominent and polarizing drivers of landscape change in Europe. These transitions may induce deterioration in landscape functioning and character, particularly in cultural landscapes demonstrative of evolving human-environment dynamics that have sustained environmental benefits through time. Cultural and behavioral motives are important root influences to such landscape transitions, yet efforts to address landscape degradation are often hampered by a failure to account for the heterogeneous decision-making nature of its agents of change and the inherent complexity of socio-ecological systems. Novel techniques are required to further disentangle responses to multi-level drivers and discuss alternative landscape development trajectories. Agent-based models constructed by means of participatory approaches present increasingly applied tools in this context. This study sought to capture and model the future perspectives emerging from presently occurring farming discourses in the region of Gera (Lesvos, Greece), characterized by persistent abandonment of its traditionally managed olive plantations. We constructed an agent-based model iteratively in collaboration with the local farming community and experts in landscape research. Empirical findings informed the model through the construction of a farmer typology, revealing a heavy reliance of the farming community upon sectorial profitability, prevalent cultural farming motives and emerging landscape initiatives. The model examined the de-coupled role of agricultural profitability and landscapes initiatives in shaping the behavior of land managers, mapping alternative landscape futures over a period of 25 years. Model results illustrate both increased profitability and action by landscape initiatives are required to reverse abandonment trends within the simulated time frame. The hypothesized ability of landscape initiatives to maintain and promote a cultural drive amongst adhering farmers is crucial for securing behavioral transformations towards professionalism. This study confirmed agent-based modelling to be intuitively received by stakeholders who significantly contributed to model structure refinement and the rejection of a status quo scenario

Ecologically and biophysically optimal allocation of expanded soy production in Bavaria, Germany

A debate about cultivation and trading of soy has emerged among scientists, policymakers, and the public in recent years. Export-orientated soy production in regions of South America is associated with large-scale ecosystem destruction. Since soy is an important source of animal fodder, policymakers are developing schemes to support and enhance sustainable domestic soy cultivation, especially in the EU. Expanded soy cultivation should ideally provide high yields and at the same time promote environmental benefits. For this purpose, we applied a multi-objective optimization algorithm that selects areas with maximum soy suitability, minimum erosion risk, need for low fertilizer input due to water quality issues, and need for diversification of monotonous crop rotations. We use the state of Bavaria in Germany as a case study, modeling full self-sufficiency of soy. The results of the optimization indicate synergies between plantation suitability with need for low fertilization input and crop variation, which implies that the environmental benefit of nitrogen fixation and rotation diversification from soy plants can easily be reconciled with food productivity. However, slight trade-offs occur between erosion risk and the three other objectives, i.e., locations with better soy production might be more prone toward erosion risk. As a potential consequence of expanded soy cultivation in Bavaria, we identified winter wheat, grain maize, potatoes, and sugar beet as those crops that have the highest share of displaced cultivation area. To reduce such land use conflicts and ensure self-sufficiency in relevant crops, we recommend to limit the use of soy as animal feed. Nevertheless, we propose to explicitly incorporate the local need for the environmental benefits of soy cultivation in the planning for soy expansion. In doing so, domestic soy can turn into a real sustainable alternative to imported plant protein

Future carbon sequestration in Europe-Effects of land use change

Important land use changes are expected in the European Union (EU) the coming decades, having effects on carbon stocks in soil and vegetation. We assessed how future land use change (LUC) can influence future carbon stock change in soil and vegetation in the EU. The emphasis is on the role of LUC in the overall carbon balance of the EU biosphere. Because LUC is the most dynamic driving factor of terrestrial carbon stock change, it is important to account for the dynamics of LUC in carbon stock change modelling. The major challenge in coupling a carbon model and a LUC model is the difference in spatial and temporal resolution generally used in these modelling approaches. We used a high-resolution LUC model and a carbon bookkeeping approach that takes into account effects of soil and forest age on carbon stock changes. These approaches best fit the chosen resolution and extent in a consistent manner. Four SRES scenarios that cover a range of possible future developments were evaluated: Global Economy (A1): lean government, strong globalization; Continental Markets (A2): lean government, regional cultural and economic development; Global Co-operation (B1): much governmental intervention, strong globalization; Regional Communities (B2): much governmental intervention, regional cultural and economic development. If land use remains unchanged, carbon sequestration rates are expected to decrease by 4% in 2030 relative to 2000. LUC causes an additional sequestration rate decrease in the A2 scenario of 2% in 2030. In the other three scenarios, sequestration rate increases by 9-16% in 2030 relative to 2000. In 2030, the terrestrial biosphere in the EU is expected to sequester between 90 and 111 Tg C year-1. This is 6.5-8% of the projected anthropogenic emissions. In the B2 scenario, the highest sequestration rate increase is expected (15 Tg C year-1). Clear differences are found in the spatial distribution of sinks and sources between the scenarios, illustrating that land use is an important factor in future carbon sequestration changes that cannot be ignored

Identification of the Henon chaotic map by fuzzy modeling and Nelder-Mead simplex method

A nonlinear identification approach for describing the dynamical behavior of a Henon chaotic map based on Nelder-Mead simplex method and Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model is proposed in this paper. Nonlinear dynamic systems exhibiting chaotic behavior arise in real world problems in many areas of science and technology. the investigation of such systems becomes further attractive since they are simple systems able to imitate the behavior of complex systems. An alternative to approximate a nonlinear system is to employ fuzzy models since they are universal approximators able to adequately approximate any continuous functions to an arbitrary precision. Due to that it became a powerful tool for the nonlinear identification and control. Another advantage of using T-S fuzzy modeling is its characteristic of representing a highly nonlinear functional relation with a small number of rules. Nelder-Mead simplex method is proposed here as the method for optimizing the premise part while least mean squares technique is employed for consequent part of production rules of a T-S fuzzy model. Numerical results indicate that the description of discrete chaotic dynamics of Henon map can be accomplished by exploring the effectiveness of NMO approach combined with T-S fuzzy modeling in constructing an appropriate nonlinear identification. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Natl Inst Space Res INPE, Integrat & Testing Lab LIT, Space Engn & Technol ETE, BR-12227010 Sao Jose Dos Campos, BrazilPontifical Catholic Univ Parana, PPGEPS, Ind & Syst Engn Grad Program, BR-80215901 Curitiba, Parana, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Hlth Informat Dept DIS, BR-04023062 São Paulo, BrazilHosp Municipal Dr Jose de Carvalho Florence, BR-04023062 São Paulo, BrazilAssociacao Paulista Desenvolvimento Med SPDM, BR-04024002 São Paulo, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Hlth Informat Dept DIS, BR-04023062 São Paulo, BrazilCNPq: 309646/2006-5/PQWeb of Scienc

Ecologically and biophysically optimal allocation of expanded soy production in Bavaria, Germany

A debate about cultivation and trading of soy has emerged among scientists, policymakers, and the public in recent years. Export-orientated soy production in regions of South America is associated with large-scale ecosystem destruction. Since soy is an important source of animal fodder, policymakers are developing schemes to support and enhance sustainable domestic soy cultivation, especially in the EU. Expanded soy cultivation should ideally provide high yields and at the same time promote environmental benefits. For this purpose, we applied a multi-objective optimization algorithm that selects areas with maximum soy suitability, minimum erosion risk, need for low fertilizer input due to water quality issues, and need for diversification of monotonous crop rotations. We use the state of Bavaria in Germany as a case study, modeling full self-sufficiency of soy. The results of the optimization indicate synergies between plantation suitability with need for low fertilization input and crop variation, which implies that the environmental benefit of nitrogen fixation and rotation diversification from soy plants can easily be reconciled with food productivity. However, slight trade-offs occur between erosion risk and the three other objectives, i.e., locations with better soy production might be more prone toward erosion risk. As a potential consequence of expanded soy cultivation in Bavaria, we identified winter wheat, grain maize, potatoes, and sugar beet as those crops that have the highest share of displaced cultivation area. To reduce such land use conflicts and ensure self-sufficiency in relevant crops, we recommend to limit the use of soy as animal feed. Nevertheless, we propose to explicitly incorporate the local need for the environmental benefits of soy cultivation in the planning for soy expansion. In doing so, domestic soy can turn into a real sustainable alternative to imported plant protein

Cultural landscapes of the future: using agent-based modeling to discuss and develop the use and management of the cultural landscape of South West Devon

Context: Hedgerows are typical landscape features of high environmental and cultural value that often have been sacrificed for agricultural intensification and scale enlargement. Objectives: We studied the dynamics of hedgerow quality over time in a case study area renowned for its hedgerow landscapes: South West Devon (UK) answering the following research questions: (1) how does the imperative of scale enlargement affect hedgerow quality? and (2) to what extent can cultural landscape degradation be countered by targeted policies? Methods: We applied an agent-based modeling approach, parameterized with a site specific survey, to explore and discuss outcomes of future landscape change with stakeholders and co-designed preferred scenarios of landscape change during a workshop. Results: Outcomes suggested that in the case-study area, scale enlargement has a negative effect on hedgerow quality when agri-environment scheme subsidies (AES) are low. In contrast, if the level of AES enrollment is high, scale enlargement can have a positive effect on hedgerow quality, as large holders are more likely to enroll for AES. Stakeholders acknowledged the need for agricultural intensification, but at the same time valued biodiversity and environmental value of the landscape in South West Devon. Conclusion: Current AES are able to retain a decent hedgerow quality. With lower AES, scale enlargement can have an invigorative effect on hedgerow quality as land managers of larger farms will be less likely to join AES As an addition to AES, harvesting wood fuel from coppiced hedgerows appears a promising way to incentivize rejuvenating hedgerow management without governmental subsidies

Trade-offs of European agricultural abandonment

Agricultural land abandonment is a policy challenge, especially for areas with unfavorable conditions for agriculture and remote and mountainous areas. Agricultural abandonment is an important land use process in many world regions and one of the dominant land use change processes in Europe. Previous studies have shown that abandonment can have both positive and negative effects on several environmental processes, influenced by location and scale. Preferred policies and management of these areas are debated given concerns for the loss of (traditional) agricultural landscapes and potential impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We present a European-scale impact assessment of the possible effects of agricultural abandonment, based on eight indicators that are on the forefront of the agricultural abandonment debate. Using a multi-scale modelling approach, we expect between 71.277 and 211.814 km2 of agricultural abandonment in 2040. Impacts on the indicators and trade-offs between the impacts are spatially variable. A typology of typical trade-off bundles at a 1 km2 resolution resulted in four typical trade-off clusters. All clusters identified are characterized by a loss of agriculture-related values, such as agro-biodiversity and cultural heritage. For two clusters, this was accompanied by positive effects on indicators such as carbon sequestration, nature recreation and mammal habitat suitability. Overall, our results indicate that location and scale are key to assess the trade-offs originating from agricultural abandonment in Europe. Identification of typical trade-offs bundles can help to distinguish potential desirable outcomes of agricultural abandonment and assist in targeting measures to areas that face similar management challenges

Characterizing European cultural landscapes:accounting for structure, management intensity and value of agricultural and forest landscapes

Abstract Almost all rural areas in Europe have been shaped or altered by humans and can be considered cultural landscapes, many of which now are considered to entail valuable cultural heritage. Current dynamics in land management have put cultural landscapes under a huge pressure of agricultural intensification and land abandonment. To prevent the loss of cultural landscapes, knowledge on the location of different types of cultural landscapes is needed. In this paper, we present a characterization of European cultural landscapes based on the prevalence of three key dimensions of cultural landscapes: landscape structure, management intensity, and value and meaning. We mapped these dimensions across Europe at a 1-km resolution by combining proxies on management intensity and landscape structure with new indicators such as social media usage and registered traditional food products. We integrated the three dimensions into a continuous “cultural landscape index” that allows for a characterization of Europe’s rural landscapes. The characterization identifies hotspots of cultural landscapes, where all three dimensions are present, such as in the Mediterranean. On the other hand, Eastern and Northern European cultural landscapes are mostly characterized by only one of the dimensions. Our paper can help to identify pressures to cultural landscapes and thus to target measures for the conservation of these landscapes, to link similar landscapes in different regions, and to inform policy design on the most important characteristics of cultural landscapes at a regional scale