18 research outputs found

    Multivariate Prediction of Total Water Storage Changes Over West Africa from Multi-Satellite Data

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    West African countries have been exposed to changes in rainfall patterns over the last decades, including a significant negative trend. This causes adverse effects on water resources of the region, for instance, reduced freshwater availability. Assessing and predicting large-scale total water storage (TWS) variations are necessary for West Africa, due to its environmental, social, and economical impacts. Hydrological models, however, may perform poorly over West Africa due to data scarcity. This study describes a new statistical, data-driven approach for predicting West African TWS changes from (past) gravity data obtained from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE), and (concurrent) rainfall data from the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) and sea surface temperature (SST) data over the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The proposed method, therefore, capitalizes on the availability of remotely sensed observations for predicting monthly TWS, a quantity which is hard to observe in the field but important for measuring regional energy balance, as well as for agricultural, and water resource management.Major teleconnections within these data sets were identified using independent component analysis and linked via low-degree autoregressive models to build a predictive framework. After a learning phase of 72 months, our approach predicted TWS from rainfall and SST data alone that fitted to the observed GRACE-TWS better than that from a global hydrological model. Our results indicated a fit of 79 % and 67 % for the first-year prediction of the two dominant annual and inter-annual modes of TWS variations. This fit reduces to 62 % and 57 % for the second year of projection. The proposed approach, therefore, represents strong potential to predict the TWS over West Africa up to 2 years. It also has the potential to bridge the present GRACE data gaps of 1 month about each 162days as well as a—hopefully—limited gap between GRACE and the GRACE follow-on mission over West Africa. The method presented could also be used to generate a near real-time GRACE forecast over the regions that exhibit strong teleconnections

    Assessing the morphodynamic response of a New England beach-barrier system to an artificial reef

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    As a result of climate change and the ensuing accelerating sea level rise, the Ninigret Trustom Pond beach barrier system, located along the southern shore of Rhode Island, USA, has become increasingly vulnerable to tropical storms, hurricanes, and Nor\u27easters affecting the region. In this work, we explore the ability of a segmented artificial reef (AR) to protect the Ninigret Trustom Pond beach barrier system, by reducing the incident wave energy and ultimately the beach erosion. A set of nine AR concepts are selected, which are predicted to be accretive based on Ranasinghe et al.’s (2010) design criterion (RVB), extended by van der Baan (2013) to apply to segmented submerged breakwaters. The effectiveness of each concept is then assessed through numerical simulations, for both average wave climate conditions and storm events, with and without sea level rise, using the 2D morphodynamic model XBeach. The AR concepts are evaluated based on their ability to reduce coastal erosion during the storm events, including with a near future sea level rise of 0.31 m (scenario based on local prediction by 2050 relative to 2020 following the intermediate NOAA scenario), while ensuring a slightly accretive behavior in average wave conditions. The reduction of the coastal erosion during the storm events is quantified by comparing the subaerial eroded volume at the site, with or without sea level rise, when implementing each of the nine pre-selected AR concepts. While all concepts are found to protect the shoreline during storm events, including with the 0.31 m sea level rise scenario, four of the nine AR concepts, pre-selected to be accretive based on the RVB criterion, are found to be erosive in average conditions. Assuming a given submergence level, the distance to the shoreline and the AR lateral confinement ratio, LC, (gap width to length ratio of the segments) are the main controlling parameter

    REINFORCING ECOSYSTEM ENGINEERS WITH ENHANCED VEGETATION AND AN ARTIFICIAL REEF ALONG THE US RHODE ISLAND COASTAL BARRIER SYSTEMS

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    Beach barrier systems (BBS) act as “ecosystem engi-neers” (EE), protecting the mainland and back bays from direct wave impact and reducing storm surge and flow passing through their inlets. BBS naturally adapt to slowly evolving wave climates by regressing or transgressing. However, observations show that BBS have been destabilized during past periods of fast changes in sea level or wave climate, potentially leading to drowning of the barrier. In this respect, current predictions of large changes in future Sea Level Rise (SLR) and wave climate, combined with anthropogenic effects, are concerning as these could challenge the natural adaptability of BBS. This raises the following questions: (1) can the future protective ability of local EE be predicted? (2) can the added benefits of implementing selected Nature Based Solutions (NbS) to enhance this natural protective ability be quantified, as well as their potentially negative feedback effects? In this study, these questions are considered for the south shore of Rhode Island (RI) through numerical modeling, in part based on earlier regional storm hazard assessment (Grilli et al., 2020). Specifically, here, as part of a NOAA project (“Effects of Sea-Level Rise 2021, Coastal Resilience” program), we assess the efficiency of NbS in changing climate conditions, while integrating local concerns, observed trends, and supporting local ecosystem and people’s way of life
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