Harmonised Principles for Public Participation in Quality Assurance of Integrated Water Resources Modelling

The main purpose of public participation in integrated water resources modelling is to improve decision-making by ensuring that decisions are soundly based on shared knowledge, experience and scientific evidence. The present paper describes stakeholder involvement in the modelling process. The point of departure is the guidelines for quality assurance for `scientific` water resources modelling developed under the EU research project HarmoniQuA, which has developed a computer based Modelling Support Tool (MoST) to provide a user-friendly guidance and a quality assurance framework that aim for enhancing the credibility of river basin modelling. MoST prescribes interaction, which is a form of participation above consultation but below engagement of stakeholders and the public in the early phases of the modelling cycle and under review tasks throughout the process. MoST is a flexible tool which supports different types of users and facilitates interaction between modeller, manager and stakeholders. The perspective of using MoST for engagement of stakeholders e.g. higher level participation throughout the modelling process as part of integrated water resource management is evaluate

Cumulative weighing of time in intertemporal tradeoffs

We examine preferences for sequences of delayed monetary gains. In the experimental literature, two prominent models have been advanced as psychological descriptions of preferences for sequences. In one model, the instantaneous utilities of the outcomes in a sequence are discounted as a function of their delays, and assembled into a discounted utility of the sequence. In the other model, the ccumulated utility of the outcomes in a sequence is considered along with utility or disutility from improvement in outcome utilities and utility or disutility from the spreading of outcome utilities. Drawing on three threads of evidence concerning preferences for sequences of monetary gains, we propose that the accumulated utility of the outcomes in a sequence is traded off against the duration of utility accumulation. In our first experiment, aggregate choice behavior provides qualitative support for the tradeoff model. In three subsequent experiments, one of which incentivized, disaggregate choice behavior provides quantitative support for the tradeoff model in Bayesian model contests. The third experiment addresses one thread of evidence that motivated the tradeoff model: When, in the choice between two single dated outcomes, it is conveyed that receiving less sooner means receiving nothing later, preference for receiving more later increases, but when it is conveyed that receiving more later means receiving nothing sooner, preference is left unchanged. Our results show that this asymmetric hidden-zero effect is indeed driven by those supporting the tradeoff model. The tradeoff model also accommodates all remaining evidence on preferences for sequences of monetary gains

Quantitative analysis of reo- based service coordination

Quality of Service analysis of composed software systems is an active research area, with the goal of evaluating and improving performance and resource allocation in serviceoriented applications, namely, in the glue code –coordination layer– of such systems. Stochastic Reo offers constructs for service coordination and allows the specification of stochastic values for channels. But its state-of-the-art semantic models fail in several (important) ways. In this paper, we will see how Interactive Markov chains (IMC), proposed as astochastic compositional model of concurrency, can be effectively used to serve as a compositional semantic model for Stochastic Reo. Treating IMC as a direct semantic model, gives rise to more faithful models and has obvious efficiency advantages. Moreover, tool support that exists for IMC is made available, without significant effort, to verify and reason about the coordination layer modelled as Reo connectors.(undefined

Analytic calculation of radio emission from parametrized extensive air showers:A tool to extract shower parameters

The radio intensity and polarization footprint of a cosmic-ray induced extensive air shower is determined by the time-dependent structure of the current distribution residing in the plasma cloud at the shower front. In turn, the time dependence of the integrated charge-current distribution in the plasma cloud, the longitudinal shower structure, is determined by interesting physics which one would like to extract, such as the location and multiplicity of the primary cosmic-ray collision or the values of electric fields in the atmosphere during thunderstorms. To extract the structure of a shower from its footprint requires solving a complicated inverse problem. For this purposewe have developed a code that semianalytically calculates the radio footprint of an extensive air shower given an arbitrary longitudinal structure. This code can be used in an optimization procedure to extract the optimal longitudinal shower structure given a radio footprint. On the basis of air-shower universality we propose a simple parametrization of the structure of the plasma cloud. This parametrization is based on the results of Monte Carlo shower simulations. Deriving the parametrization also teaches which aspects of the plasma cloud are important for understanding the features seen in the radio-emission footprint. The calculated radio footprints are compared with microscopic CoREAS simulations

Patterns of the ground states in the presence of random interactions: nucleon systems

We present our results on properties of ground states for nucleonic systems in the presence of random two-body interactions. In particular we present probability distributions for parity, seniority, spectroscopic (i.e., in the laboratory framework) quadrupole moments and $\alpha$ clustering in the ground states. We find that the probability distribution for the parity of the ground states obtained by a two-body random ensemble simulates that of realistic nuclei: positive parity is dominant in the ground states of even-even nuclei while for odd-odd nuclei and odd-mass nuclei we obtain with almost equal probability ground states with positive and negative parity. In addition we find that for the ground states, assuming pure random interactions, low seniority is not favored, no dominance of positive values of spectroscopic quadrupole deformation, and no sign of $\alpha$-cluster correlations, all in sharp contrast to realistic nuclei. Considering a mixture of a random and a realistic interaction, we observe a second order phase transition for the $\alpha$-cluster correlation probability.Comment: 7 page

Ultra-Slow Discharges That Precede Lightning Initiation

We report on ultra-slowly propagating discharge events with speeds in the range 1-13 km/s, much lower than any known lightning process. The propagation speeds of these discharges are orders of magnitude slower than leader or streamer speeds, but faster than the ion drift speed. For one particular event, a lightning leader forms about 40 ms later within 50 m of the discharge, likely within the same high field region. A second slow event forms 9 ms prior to the initiation, and leads into the negative leader. Most slow events appear to not be directly involved with lightning initiation. This suggests that the classic streamer cascade model of initiation is not always a definitive process. In this work we describe these discharge events displaying unique behavior, their relation to common lightning discharges, and their implications for lightning initiation

Polarized radio emission from extensive air showers measured with LOFAR

We present LOFAR measurements of radio emission from extensive air showers. We find that this emission is strongly polarized, with a median degree of polarization of nearly $99\%$, and that the angle between the polarization direction of the electric field and the Lorentz force acting on the particles, depends on the observer location in the shower plane. This can be understood as a superposition of the radially polarized charge-excess emission mechanism, first proposed by Askaryan and the geomagnetic emission mechanism proposed by Kahn and Lerche. We calculate the relative strengths of both contributions, as quantified by the charge-excess fraction, for $163$ individual air showers. We find that the measured charge-excess fraction is higher for air showers arriving from closer to the zenith. Furthermore, the measured charge-excess fraction also increases with increasing observer distance from the air shower symmetry axis. The measured values range from $(3.3\pm 1.0)\%$ for very inclined air showers at $25\, \mathrm{m}$ to $(20.3\pm 1.3)\%$ for almost vertical showers at $225\, \mathrm{m}$. Both dependencies are in qualitative agreement with theoretical predictions.Comment: 22 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in JCA

The radio emission pattern of air showers as measured with LOFAR - a tool for the reconstruction of the energy and the shower maximum

The pattern of the radio emission of air showers is finely sampled with the Low-Frequency ARray (LOFAR). A set of 382 measured air showers is used to test a fast, analytic parameterization of the distribution of pulse powers. Using this parameterization we are able to reconstruct the shower axis and give estimators for the energy of the air shower as well as the distance to the shower maximum.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in JCA