Does the timed up and go test predict future falls among British community-dwelling older people? Prospective cohort study nested within a randomised controlled trial

Background Falling is common among older people. The Timed-Up-and-Go Test (TUG) is recommended as a screening tool for falls but its predictive value has been challenged. The objectives of this study were to examine the ability of TUG to predict future falls and to estimate the optimal cut-off point to identify those with higher risk for future falls. Methods This is a prospective cohort study nested within a randomised controlled trial including 259 British community-dwelling older people ≥65 years undergoing usual care. TUG was measured at baseline. Prospective diaries captured falls over 24 weeks. A Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analysis determined the optimal cut-off point to classify future falls risk with sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of TUG times. Logistic regression models examined future falls risk by TUG time. Results Sixty participants (23%) fell during the 24 weeks. The area under the curve was 0.58 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 0.49-0.67, p = 0.06), suggesting limited predictive value. The optimal cut-off point was 12.6 seconds and the corresponding sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 30.5%, 89.5%, 46.2%, and 81.4%. Logistic regression models showed each second increase in TUG time (adjusted for age, gender, comorbidities, medications and past history of two falls) was significantly associated with future falls (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.00-1.19, p = 0.05). A TUG time ≥12.6 seconds (adjusted OR = 3.94, 95% CI = 1.69-9.21, p = 0.002) was significantly associated with future falls, after the same adjustments. Conclusions TUG times were significantly and independently associated with future falls. The ability of TUG to predict future falls was limited but with high specificity and negative predictive value. TUG may be most useful in ruling in those with a high risk of falling rather than as a primary measure in the ascertainment of risk

Macrofossil evidence for a rapid and severe Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction in Antarctica

Debate continues about the nature of the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) mass extinction event. An abrupt crisis triggered by a bolide impact contrasts with ideas of a more gradual extinction involving flood volcanism or climatic changes. Evidence from high latitudes has also been used to suggest that the severity of the extinction decreased from low latitudes towards the poles. Here we present a record of the K–Pg extinction based on extensive assemblages of marine macrofossils (primarily new data from benthic molluscs) from a highly expanded Cretaceous–Paleogene succession: the López de Bertodano Formation of Seymour Island, Antarctica. We show that the extinction was rapid and severe in Antarctica, with no significant biotic decline during the latest Cretaceous, contrary to previous studies. These data are consistent with a catastrophic driver for the extinction, such as bolide impact, rather than a significant contribution from Deccan Traps volcanism during the late Maastrichtian

ICT-based system to predict and prevent falls (iStoppFalls): results from an international multicenter randomized controlled trial

Background: Falls and fall-related injuries are a serious public health issue. Exercise programs can effectively reduce fall risk in older people. The iStoppFalls project developed an Information and Communication Technology-based system to deliver an unsupervised exercise program in older people’s homes. The primary aims of the iStoppFalls randomized controlled trial were to assess the feasibility (exercise adherence, acceptability and safety) of the intervention program and its effectiveness on common fall risk factors. Methods: A total of 153 community-dwelling people aged 65+ years took part in this international, multicentre, randomized controlled trial. Intervention group participants conducted the exercise program for 16 weeks, with a recommended duration of 120 min/week for balance exergames and 60 min/week for strength exercises. All intervention and control participants received educational material including advice on a healthy lifestyle and fall prevention. Assessments included physical and cognitive tests, and questionnaires for health, fear of falling, number of falls, quality of life and psychosocial outcomes. Results: The median total exercise duration was 11.7 h (IQR = 22.0) over the 16-week intervention period. There were no adverse events. Physiological fall risk (Physiological Profile Assessment, PPA) reduced significantly more in the intervention group compared to the control group (F1,127 = 4.54, p = 0.035). There was a significant three-way interaction for fall risk assessed by the PPA between the high-adherence (>90 min/week; n = 18, 25.4 %), low-adherence (n = 53, 74.6 %) and control group (F2,125 = 3.12, n = 75, p = 0.044). Post hoc analysis revealed a significantly larger effect in favour of the high-adherence group compared to the control group for fall risk (p = 0.031), postural sway (p = 0.046), stepping reaction time (p = 0.041), executive functioning (p = 0.044), and quality of life (p for trend = 0.052). Conclusions: The iStoppFalls exercise program reduced physiological fall risk in the study sample. Additional subgroup analyses revealed that intervention participants with better adherence also improved in postural sway, stepping reaction, and executive function

Increased multidecadal variability of the north atlantic oscillation since 1781

The North Atlantic Oscillation is a meridional oscillation of atmospheric mass measured between Iceland and the Açores, which drives winter climate variability in eastern North America and Europe. A prolonged period of the positive phase during the 1990s led to the suggestion that anthropogenic warming was affecting the behaviour of the North Atlantic Oscillation. However, instrumental records are too short to compare observations during periods of extended warm and cold hemispheric temperatures, and existing palaeoclimate reconstructions primarily capture terrestrial variability. Here we present a record of Sr/Ca, a sea surface temperature proxy, from a Bermuda coral from 1781 to 1999. We use this monthly resolved record to reconstruct past variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation at multiple frequencies. Our record shows enhanced multidecadal scale variability during the late twentieth century compared with the end of the Little Ice Age (1800-1850). We suggest that variability within the North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere, which must be considered in any long-term predictions. © 2008 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.link_to_subscribed_fulltex