Airborne measurements of tropospheric ozone destruction and particulate bromide formation in the Arctic

Aircraft profiles of O3 concentrations over the Arctic ice pack in spring exhibit a depletion of O3 beneath the surface temperature inversion. One such profile from the NOAA WP-3D Arctic Gas and Aerosol Sampling Program (AGASP) flights in April, 1986 north of Alert, NWT (YLT, 82.5 N) is shown. The gradient of O3 across the temperature inversion, which is essentially a step function from tropospheric values (35 to 40 ppbv) to 0, is somewhat masked by a 1-min running mean applied to the data. Evidence is presented that O3 destruction beneath the Arctic temperature inversion is the result of a photochemical reaction between gaseous Br compounds and O3 to produce particulate Br aerosol. It is noted that in springtime, O3 at the Alert Baseline Station regularly decreases from 30 to 40 ppbv to near 0 over the period of a few hours to a day. At the same time, there is a production of particulate Br with a near 1.0 anti-correlation to O3 concentration. Surface concentrations of bromoform in the Arctic exhibit a rapid decrease following polar sunrise. AGASP aircraft measurements of filterable bromine particulates in the Arctic (March-April, 1983 and 1986) are shown. The greatest concentrations of Br aerosol (shown as enrichment factors relative to to Na in seawater, EFBR (Na)) were observed in samples collected beneath the surface temperature inversion over ice. Samples collected at the same altitude over open ocean (off Spitzbergen) labeled Marine did not exhibit similar Br enrichments. A second region of particulate Br enrichment was observed in the lower stratosphere, which regularly descends to below 500 mb (5.5 km) in the high Arctic. The NOAA WP-3D flew in the stratosphere on all AGASP flights and occasionally measured O3 concentrations in excess of 300 ppbv

Credible Subgroups: Identifying the Population that Benefits from Treatment

University of Minnesota Ph.D. dissertation. May 2017. Major: Biostatistics. Advisor: Bradley Carlin. 1 computer file (PDF); x, 134 pages + 1 supplementary zip file.A single treatment may have a different effect on different patients. In particular, some patients may benefit from a given treatment while others do not. Often, some of the variation in effect among patients can often be explained by characteristics of those patients that are observable before treatment. Widespread acknowledgment of treatment effect variation due to observable patient characteristics has increased the health science community's interest in a broad field referred to as personalized or precision medicine. Among the aims of precision medicine are identifying the set of treatments that would benefit a given patient, and conversely, identifying the population of patients who would benefit from a given treatment. We treat the latter problem in the context of clinical trials run by treatment developers (e.g., pharmaceutical companies), with special attention paid to interactions between those developers and the relevant regulatory agencies (e.g., the US Food and Drug Administration). The primary difficulty in estimating the benefiting population in such settings is controlling the frequency with which at least one type of patient is incorrectly determined to benefit, and doing so in a way that does not render the approach excessively conservative. As a motivating application throughout this dissertation, we consider a battery of related clinical trials of treatments for Alzheimer's disease carried out by the pharmaceutical company AbbVie. These trials contain a small number of continuous and binary baseline patient characteristics that may influence the treatment effect. We apply standard and more novel regression models to the supplied data and develop methods of inference to accommodate the varied features of the datasets, such as nonlinear effects, multiple important endpoints, more than two treatments, and regions of the covariate space that are sparse in observations or lacking common support among treatment arms. We also discuss topics in practical implementation of these methods. Our approaches yield reliable and easily interpretable inferences regarding the population that benefits from treatment

Overcoming Repeated Testing Schedule Bias in Estimates of Disease Prevalence

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many institutions such as universities and workplaces implemented testing regimens with every member of some population tested longitudinally, and those testing positive isolated for some time. Although the primary purpose of such regimens was to suppress disease spread by identifying and isolating infectious individuals, testing results were often also used to obtain prevalence and incidence estimates. Such estimates are helpful in risk assessment and institutional planning and various estimation procedures have been implemented, ranging from simple test-positive rates to complex dynamical modeling. Unfortunately, the popular test-positive rate is a biased estimator of prevalence under many seemingly innocuous longitudinal testing regimens with isolation. We illustrate how such bias arises and identify conditions under which the test-positive rate is unbiased. Further, we identify weaker conditions under which prevalence is identifiable and propose a new estimator of prevalence under longitudinal testing. We evaluate the proposed estimation procedure via simulation study and illustrate its use on a dataset derived by anonymizing testing data from The Ohio State University.Comment: 36 pages, 4 figures, 1 tabl

Punktfokussierende Heliostaten aus Hochleistungsbeton

aus dem Inhalt: „Die im Teilprojekt Mark/Schnell des SPP 1542 erbrachten Entwicklungen an Parabolrinnen (siehe S. 536 ff . des vorliegenden Buches) haben gezeigt, wie aussichtsreich die Verwendung von Feinkornbetonen für die Herstellung hochpräziser, formstabiler Bauteile ist [1], [2]. Die gewonnenen Erkenntnisse und die Nachfrage aus der Solartechnik ermutigen zur Übertragung auf verwandte Anwendungsgebiete, nämlich auf Heliostate [3] unter der Leitidee einer weitgehend industrialisierten Präzisionsfertigung. Wegen der extrem hohen Wiederholungszahl gleicher oder sehr ähnlicher Fertigteile sind Heliostate für den Betonfertigteilbau auch unter wirtschaftlichen Gesichtspunkten in nahezu idealer Weise geeignet....”from the content: „Recent developments on parabolic troughs (see p. 536 seq. of this book) in Mark/Schnell’s project of the SPP 1542 have shown that the use of finegrained concrete is a promising alternative for the manufacture of highly precise components with low deformations [1], [2]. Their findings and requests in solar technology have encouraged a transfer to related fields of application, namely to heliostats [3]. The guiding principle is broadly industrialized precision manufacturing. Due to an extremely high number of identical or utmost similar precast elements, heliostats seem to be ideally suited for precast concrete construction from an economic point of view....

Leichte verformungsoptimierte Schalentragwerke aus mikrobewehrtem UHPC am Beispiel von Parabolrinnen solarthermischer Kraftwerke

Parabolrinnen-Kraftwerke sind zurzeit die am häufigsten zum Einsatz kommende und wirtschaftlichste Technologie solarthermisch konzentrierender Systeme (Concentrated Solar Power – CSP) und gehören zu den linienfokussierenden Systemen [1]. In Spanien stellen die solarthermischen Parabolrinnen-Kraftwerke Andasol 1–3 mit einer Kollektorfläche von ca. 150 Millionen m² bereits 150 MW zur Verfügung, mit denen ca. 200.000 Einwohner jährlich mit Strom versorgt werden können [2]–[4]. Das Solarfeld besteht aus ca. 150 m langen, in Reihe angeordneten Kollektoren, die aus einzelnen Parabolrinnen-Kollektormodulen zusammengefasst und im Tagesverlauf der Sonne nachgeführt werden. Die Lagerung erfolgt an den Modulrändern im Schwerpunkt des Kollektormoduls, der mit der Rotationsachse zusammenfällt. Bisher werden die Kollektoren überwiegend als filigranes Stahlfachwerk mit über die Aperturweite parabelförmig, uniaxial gekrümmten und punktuell gestützten Spiegelelementen ausgeführt. Bei der Assemblierung der Stahlfachwerke und der Spiegelelemente ist schon im Bauzustand durchgehend eine hohe Präzision gefordert, um eine maximale Solarstrahlenkonzentration der einfallenden direkten solaren Strahlung auf ein in der Fokallinie befindliches Absorberrohr sicherzustellen [5]. In diesem wird ein Wärmeträgermedium, zumeist Thermoöl, auf eine Prozesstemperatur von ca. 400 °C erhitzt. In einem nachgeschalteten konventionellen Kraftwerksblock wird mittels Dampfturbine Elektrizität erzeugt. Das bisher kommerziell meist genutzte Kollektormodul ist der EuroTrough mit einer Aperturweite von ca. 5,80 m und einer Modullänge von 12 m [6], [7] (Bild 1), welches als Benchmark für die erste Förderphase des Projekts diente. Zur Verbesserung der Wirtschaftlichkeit zielen bisherige Entwicklungen auf eine Vergrößerung der Spiegelfläche zur Steigerung des Wirkungsgrades über einen erhöhten geometrischen Konzentrationsgrad, definiert als das Verhältnis von Reflektor- zu Absorptionsfläche, ab. Module wie der UltimateTrough und der SpaceTube erreichen dies durch die Vergrößerung der Aperturweite auf 7,5 m bzw. 8 m [8], [9]. Ein alternatives Strukturkonzept aus stahlfaserverstärkten Betonfertigteilen der Schweizer Firma Airlight mit einer Aperturweite von 9,7 m besteht aus durch Luftdruck in parabolische Form gebrachten Spiegelfolien als Reflektorsystem und wurde bisher in einem Pilot-Kraftwerk in Ait-Baha, Marokko, umgesetzt [10]. Wesentliche Arbeiten der zweiten Förderphase sind daher – dem Trend zu größerer Apertur folgend – an der visionären Entwicklung von Parabolschalen mit Öffnungsweiten von bis zu 10 m ausgerichtet. [Aus: Einleitung]Parabolic trough power plants are currently the most frequently used and most economical technology of solar thermal systems (Concentrated Solar Power – CSP) and belong to the linear focus collector types [1]. In Spain, the solar thermal parabolic trough power plants Andasol 1–3 with a collector area of approx. 150 million m² already provide 150 MW, which means that approx. 200,000 inhabitants can be annually supplied with electricity [2]–[4]. The solar field consists of approx. 150 m long collectors arranged in rows, which are combined from individual parabolic trough collector modules and track the sun during the course of the day. The bearings are located at the edges of the module in the centre of gravity of the collector module, which corresponds to the axis of rotation. Up to now, the collectors have mainly been designed as a steel framework with parabolic, uniaxially curved and pointwise supported mirror elements. During the assembly of the steel framework and the mirror elements, high precision is required throughout the manufacturing in order to ensure a maximum solar radiation concentration of the incident direct solar radiation on an absorber tube located in the focal line [5]. A heat transfer medium, usually thermal oil, is heated to a process temperature of approx. 400 °C in the absorber tube. Electricity is generated in a downstream conventional power plant unit by means of a steam turbine. The most commercially used collector module is the EuroTrough with an aperture width of approx. 5.80 m and a module length of 12 m [6], [7] (Fig. 1), which served as a benchmark for the first funding phase of the project. In order to improve economic efficiency, previous developments have aimed to increase the size of the mirror surface in order to increase efficiency by a higher geometric degree of concentration, defined as the ratio of reflector surface to absorption surface. Modules like the UltimateTrough and the SpaceTube achieve this by increasing the aperture width to 7.5 m or 8 m, respectively, [8], [9]. An alternative structural concept consisting of prefabricated steel fibre-reinforced concrete elements from the Swiss company Airlight with an aperture width of 9.7 m consists of parabolic mirror foils as a reflector brought into parabolic shape by air pressure and has already been implemented in a pilot power plant in Ait-Baha, Morocco [10]. Therefore, in line with the trend towards a larger aperture, major work in the second funding phase aims at the visionary development of parabolic shells with aperture widths of up to 10 m. [Off: Introduction