A Unified Framework for the Infection Dynamics of Zoonotic Spillover and Spread.

A considerable amount of disease is transmitted from animals to humans and many of these zoonoses are neglected tropical diseases. As outbreaks of SARS, avian influenza and Ebola have demonstrated, however, zoonotic diseases are serious threats to global public health and are not just problems confined to remote regions. There are two fundamental, and poorly studied, stages of zoonotic disease emergence: 'spillover', i.e. transmission of pathogens from animals to humans, and 'stuttering transmission', i.e. when limited human-to-human infections occur, leading to self-limiting chains of transmission. We developed a transparent, theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Poisson processes with memory of past human infections, that unifies these stages. Once we have quantified pathogen dynamics in the reservoir, with some knowledge of the mechanism of contact, the approach provides a tool to estimate the likelihood of spillover events. Comparisons with independent agent-based models demonstrates the ability of the framework to correctly estimate the relative contributions of human-to-human vs animal transmission. As an illustrative example, we applied our model to Lassa fever, a rodent-borne, viral haemorrhagic disease common in West Africa, for which data on human outbreaks were available. The approach developed here is general and applicable to a range of zoonoses. This kind of methodology is of crucial importance for the scientific, medical and public health communities working at the interface between animal and human diseases to assess the risk associated with the disease and to plan intervention and appropriate control measures. The Lassa case study revealed important knowledge gaps, and opportunities, arising from limited knowledge of the temporal patterns in reporting, abundance of and infection prevalence in, the host reservoir.Natural Environment Research Council (project no.: NEJ001570-1), Department for International Development, Economic and Social Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, Fogarty International Center USA, European Union FP7 (project ANTIGONE (contract number 278976)), Royal Society (Wolfson Research Merit Award), Alborada Trust, US National Institute of Health (P20GM103501, BAANIAID-DAIT-NIHQI2008031, HHSN272201000022C, HHSN272200900049C, 1U19AI109762, 1R01AI104621, 2R44AI088843), USAID/NIH PEER Health grant.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the Public Library of Science via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.000495

Using modelling to disentangle the relative contributions of zoonotic and anthroponotic transmission: the case of lassa fever.

BACKGROUND: Zoonotic infections, which transmit from animals to humans, form the majority of new human pathogens. Following zoonotic transmission, the pathogen may already have, or may acquire, the ability to transmit from human to human. With infections such as Lassa fever (LF), an often fatal, rodent-borne, hemorrhagic fever common in areas of West Africa, rodent-to-rodent, rodent-to-human, human-to-human and even human-to-rodent transmission patterns are possible. Indeed, large hospital-related outbreaks have been reported. Estimating the proportion of transmission due to human-to-human routes and related patterns (e.g. existence of super-spreaders), in these scenarios is challenging, but essential for planned interventions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we make use of an innovative modeling approach to analyze data from published outbreaks and the number of LF hospitalized patients to Kenema Government Hospital in Sierra Leone to estimate the likely contribution of human-to-human transmission. The analyses show that almost [Formula: see text] of the cases at KGH are secondary cases arising from human-to-human transmission. However, we found much of this transmission is associated with a disproportionally large impact of a few individuals ('super-spreaders'), as we found only [Formula: see text] of human cases result in an effective reproduction number (i.e. the average number of secondary cases per infectious case) [Formula: see text], with a maximum value up to [Formula: see text]. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This work explains the discrepancy between the sizes of reported LF outbreaks and a clinical perception that human-to-human transmission is low. Future assessment of risks of LF and infection control guidelines should take into account the potentially large impact of super-spreaders in human-to-human transmission. Our work highlights several neglected topics in LF research, the occurrence and nature of super-spreading events and aspects of social behavior in transmission and detection.This work for the Dynamic Drivers of Disease in Africa Consortium, NERC project no. NE-J001570-1, was funded with support from the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme. The ESPA programme is funded by the Department for International Development (DFID), the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). See more at: http://www.espa.ac.uk/about/identity/acknowledging-espafunding# sthash.UivKPObf.dpuf. GL, JLNW, AAC, CTW and EFC also benefit from the support of the small mammal disease working group, funded by the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) programme of the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and Fogarty International Center, USA. JLNW and AC were also supported by the European Union FP7 project ANTIGONE (contract number 278976). AAC is supported by a Royal Society Wolfson Reearch Merit Award. JLNW is also supported by the Alborada Trust. JSS, LM, RG, and JGS were supported by the US National Institute of Health (JSS: NIH grant P20GM103501; LM, RG, JGS: NIH grant BAA-NIAID-DAIT-NIHQI2008031).This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://www.plosntds.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pntd.0003398

Lassa Fever Induced Hearing Loss: The Neglected Disability of Hemorrhagic Fever.

OBJECTIVE: Lassa fever (LF) a hemorrhagic fever endemic to Western has an incidence of approximately 500,000 cases per year. Here, we evaluate hearing loss and other sequelae following LF. METHODS: This case-control study enrolled laboratory confirmed LF survivors, non-LF Febrile controls and Matched Community controls with no history of LF or recent hospitalization for a febrile illness. Study participants completed a symptom questionnaire. Pure-tone audiometry was completed by a subset of participants. RESULTS: One hundred forty-seven subjects were enrolled aged from 3-66 years (mean = 23.3). LF survivors were significantly more likely to report balance difficulties (55% vs 20%, p < 0.001), hair loss (32% vs 7%, p < 0.001), difficulty speaking (19% vs 1%, p < 0.001), social isolation (50% vs 0%, p < 0.001), and hearing loss (17% vs 1%, p = 0.002) in comparison to Matched-Community Controls. Similar trends were noted in comparison to Febrile Controls, although these findings were non-significant. Fifty subjects completed audiometry. Audiometry found that LF survivors had significantly more bilateral hearing loss in comparison to Matched-Community Controls (30% vs 4%, p = 0.029). CONCLUSION: This study characterizes the sequelae of LF and highlights the need for increased access to hearing care in West Africa

Dengue and chikungunya seroprevalence among Qatari nationals and immigrants residing in Qatar.

The objective of this study is to characterize the seroprevalence of anti-dengue (DENV) and anti-chikungunya (CHIKV) antibodies among blood donors residing in Qatar who are Middle East and North Africa (MENA) nationals and non-nationals. Sera were collected from adult blood donors in Qatar from 2013 to 2016 and tested for anti-DENV and anti-CHIKV IgG using commercial microplate enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Age-specific seroprevalence was summarized by region/nationality: Asia (India, Philippines), Middle East (Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Palestine, Syria, Yemen), North Africa (Egypt, Sudan), Qatar. The adjusted odds of anti-DENV and anti-CHIKV IgG seropositivity was estimated by logistic regression. Among 1,992 serum samples tested, Asian nationals had higher adjusted odds of being seropositive for anti-DENV antibodies compared to nationals of the Middle East (aOR 0.05, 95% CI 0.04-0.07), North Africa (aOR 0.14, 95% CI 0.10-0.20), and Qatar (aOR 0.01, 95% CI 0.01-0.03). Asian nationals also had higher adjusted odds of being seropositive for anti-CHIKV antibodies compared to those from the Middle East (aOR 0.14, 95% CI 0.07-0.27), North Africa (aOR 0.50, 95% CI 0.26-0.96), and Qatar (aOR 0.38, 95% CI 0.15-0.96). The adjusted odds of being anti-DENV seropositive was higher among anti-CHIKV seropositive adults, and vice versa (aOR 1.94, 95% CI 1.09-3.44), suggesting co-circulation of these viruses. DENV and CHIKV exposure is lower in Qatar and MENA nationals compared to Asian nationals suggesting a lower burden of DENV and CHIKV disease in the MENA. Antibodies to both viruses were detected in nationals from most MENA countries, supporting the need to better understand the regional epidemiology of these viruses.This work was supported by Qatar University student grants [QUST-1-CHS-2018-3/4, received by ESA, MMH, SSO, DMA, HGE] and the Qatar National Research Fund [UREP19-013-3- 001, received by LJA and GKN]. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Being Ready to Treat Ebola Virus Disease Patients

As the outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa continues, clinical preparedness is needed in countries at risk for EVD (e.g., United States) and more fully equipped and supported clinical teams in those countries with epidemic spread of EVD in Africa. Clinical staff must approach the patient with a very deliberate focus on providing effective care while assuring personal safety. To do this, both individual health care providers and health systems must improve EVD care. Although formal guidance toward these goals exists from the World Health Organization, Medecin Sans Frontières, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other groups, some of the most critical lessons come from personal experience. In this narrative, clinicians deployed by the World Health Organization into a wide range of clinical settings in West Africa distill key, practical considerations for working safely and effectively with patients with EVD

Implementation of the Ebola Virus Persistence in Ocular Tissues and Fluids (EVICT) study: Lessons learned for vision health systems strengthening in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: Following the West African Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak of 2013-2016 and more recent EVD outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo, thousands of EVD survivors are at-risk for sequelae including uveitis, which can lead to unremitting inflammation and vision loss from cataract. Because of the known risk of Ebola virus persistence in ocular fluid and the need to provide vision-restorative, safe cataract surgery, the Ebola Virus Persistence in Ocular Tissues and Fluids (EVICT) Study was implemented in Sierra Leone. During implementation of this multi-national study, challenges included regulatory approvals, mobilization, community engagement, infection prevention and control, and collaboration between multiple disciplines. In this report, we address the multifacted approach to address these challenges and the impact of implementation science research to address an urgent clinical subspecialty need in an outbreak setting. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Given the patient care need to develop a protocol to evaluate ocular fluid for Ebola virus RNA persistence prior to cataract surgery, as well as protocols to provide reassurance to ophthalmologists caring for EVD survivors with cataracts, the EVICT study was designed and implemented through the work of the Ministry of Health, Sierra Leone National Eye Programme, and international partnerships. The EVICT study showed that all 50 patients who underwent ocular fluid sampling at 19 and 34 months, respectively, tested negative for Ebola virus RNA. Thirty-four patients underwent successful cataract surgery with visual acuity improvement. Here we describe the methodology for study implementation, challenges encountered, and key issues that impacted EVD vision care in the immediate aftermath of the EVD outbreak. Key aspects of the EVICT study included defining the pertinent questions and clinical need, partnership alignment with key stakeholders, community engagement with EVD survivor associations, in-country and international regulatory approvals, study site design for infection prevention and control, and thorough plans for EVD survivor follow-up care and monitoring. Challenges encountered included patient mobilization owing to transportation routes and distance of patients in rural districts. Strong in-country partnerships and multiple international organizations overcame these challenges so that lessons learned could be applied for future EVD outbreaks in West and Central Africa including EVD outbreaks that are ongoing in Guinea and Democratic Republic of Congo. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The EVICT Study showed that cataract surgery with a protocol-driven approach was safe and vision-restorative for EVD survivors, which provided guidance for EVD ophthalmic surgical care. Ophthalmologic care remains a key aspect of the public health response for EVD outbreaks but requires a meticulous, yet partnered approach with international and local in-country partners. Future efforts may build on this framework for clinical care and to improve our understanding of ophthalmic sequelae, develop treatment paradigms for EVD survivors, and strengthen vision health systems in resource-limited settings

Neutralizing and non-neutralizing monoclonal antibodies against dengue virus E protein derived from a naturally infected patient

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Antibodies produced in response to infection with any of the four serotypes of dengue virus generally provide homotypic immunity. However, prior infection or circulating maternal antibodies can also mediate a non-protective antibody response that can enhance the course of disease in a subsequent heterotypic infection. Naturally occurring human monoclonal antibodies can help us understand the protective and pathogenic roles of the humoral immune system in dengue virus infection.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) transformation of B cells isolated from the peripheral blood of a human subject with previous dengue infection was performed. B cell cultures were screened by ELISA for antibodies to dengue (DENV) envelope (E) protein. ELISA positive cultures were cloned by limiting dilution. Three IgG1 human monoclonal antibodies (HMAbs) were purified and their binding specificity to E protein was verified by ELISA and biolayer interferometry. Neutralization and enhancement assays were conducted in epithelial and macrophage-like cell lines, respectively. All three HMAbs bound to E from at least two of the four DENV serotypes, one of the HMAbs was neutralizing, and all were able to enhance DENV infection.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>HMAbs against DENV can be successfully generated by EBV transformation of B cells from patients at least two years after naturally acquired DENV infections. These antibodies show different patterns of cross-reactivity, neutralizing, and enhancement activity.</p

Nomenclature- and Database-Compatible Names for the Two Ebola Virus Variants that Emerged in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2014

In 2014, Ebola virus (EBOV) was identified as the etiological agent of a large and still expanding outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa and a much more confined EVD outbreak in Middle Africa. Epidemiological and evolutionary analyses confirmed that all cases of both outbreaks are connected to a single introduction each of EBOV into human populations and that both outbreaks are not directly connected. Coding-complete genomic sequence analyses of isolates revealed that the two outbreaks were caused by two novel EBOV variants, and initial clinical observations suggest that neither of them should be considered strains. Here we present consensus decisions on naming for both variants (West Africa: “Makona”, Middle Africa: “Lomela”) and provide database-compatible full, shortened, and abbreviated names that are in line with recently established filovirus sub-species nomenclatures

Lassa Fever in Post-Conflict Sierra Leone

Background: Lassa fever (LF), an often-fatal hemorrhagic disease caused by Lassa virus (LASV), is a major public health threat in West Africa. When the violent civil conflict in Sierra Leone (1991 to 2002) ended, an international consortium assisted in restoration of the LF program at Kenema Government Hospital (KGH) in an area with the world's highest incidence of the disease. Methodology/Principal Findings Clinical and laboratory records of patients presenting to the KGH Lassa Ward in the post-conflict period were organized electronically. Recombinant antigen-based LF immunoassays were used to assess LASV antigenemia and LASV-specific antibodies in patients who met criteria for suspected LF. KGH has been reestablished as a center for LF treatment and research, with over 500 suspected cases now presenting yearly. Higher case fatality rates (CFRs) in LF patients were observed compared to studies conducted prior to the civil conflict. Different criteria for defining LF stages and differences in sensitivity of assays likely account for these differences. The highest incidence of LF in Sierra Leone was observed during the dry season. LF cases were observed in ten of Sierra Leone's thirteen districts, with numerous cases from outside the traditional endemic zone. Deaths in patients presenting with LASV antigenemia were skewed towards individuals less than 29 years of age. Women self-reporting as pregnant were significantly overrepresented among LASV antigenemic patients. The CFR of ribavirin-treated patients presenting early in acute infection was lower than in untreated subjects. Conclusions/Significance: Lassa fever remains a major public health threat in Sierra Leone. Outreach activities should expand because LF may be more widespread in Sierra Leone than previously recognized. Enhanced case finding to ensure rapid diagnosis and treatment is imperative to reduce mortality. Even with ribavirin treatment, there was a high rate of fatalities underscoring the need to develop more effective and/or supplemental treatments for LF

Clinical Illness and Outcomes in Patients with Ebola in Sierra Leone

Background Limited clinical and laboratory data are available on patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD). The Kenema Government Hospital in Sierra Leone, which had an existing infrastructure for research regarding viral hemorrhagic fever, has received and cared for patients with EVD since the beginning of the outbreak in Sierra Leone in May 2014. Methods We reviewed available epidemiologic, clinical, and laboratory records of patients in whom EVD was diagnosed between May 25 and June 18, 2014. We used quantitative reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction assays to assess the load of Ebola virus (EBOV, Zaire species) in a subgroup of patients. Results Of 106 patients in whom EVD was diagnosed, 87 had a known outcome, and 44 had detailed clinical information available. The incubation period was estimated to be 6 to 12 days, and the case fatality rate was 74%. Common findings at presentation included fever (in 89% of the patients), headache (in 80%), weakness (in 66%), dizziness (in 60%), diarrhea (in 51%), abdominal pain (in 40%), and vomiting (in 34%). Clinical and laboratory factors at presentation that were associated with a fatal outcome included fever, weakness, dizziness, diarrhea, and elevated levels of blood urea nitrogen, aspartate aminotransferase, and creatinine. Exploratory analyses indicated that patients under the age of 21 years had a lower case fatality rate than those over the age of 45 years (57% vs. 94%, P=0.03), and patients presenting with fewer than 100,000 EBOV copies per milliliter had a lower case fatality rate than those with 10 million EBOV copies per milliliter or more (33% vs. 94%, P=0.003). Bleeding occurred in only 1 patient. Conclusions The incubation period and case fatality rate among patients with EVD in Sierra Leone are similar to those observed elsewhere in the 2014 outbreak and in previous outbreaks. Although bleeding was an infrequent finding, diarrhea and other gastrointestinal manifestations were common. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.