How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: A focus on effects at national parks

We use a global coupled chemistry-climate-land model (CESM) to assess the integrated effect of climate, emissions and land use changes on annual surface O3 and PM2.5 in the United States with a focus on national parks (NPs) and wilderness areas, using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections. We show that, when stringent domestic emission controls are applied, air quality is predicted to improve across the US, except surface O3 over the western and central US under RCP8.5 conditions, where rising background ozone counteracts domestic emission reductions. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, surface O3 is substantially reduced (about 5 ppb), with daily maximum 8 h averages below the primary US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of 75 ppb (and even 65 ppb) in all the NPs. PM2.5 is significantly reduced in both scenarios (4 μg m-3; ~50%), with levels below the annual US EPA NAAQS of 12 μg m-3 across all the NPs; visibility is also improved (10-15 dv; >75 km in visibility range), although some western US parks with Class I status (40-74 % of total sites in the US) are still above the 2050 planned target level to reach the goal of natural visibility conditions by 2064. We estimate that climate-driven increases in fire activity may dominate summertime PM2.5 over the western US, potentially offsetting the large PM2.5 reductions from domestic emission controls, and keeping visibility at present-day levels in many parks. Our study indicates that anthropogenic emission patterns will be important for air quality in 2050. However, climate and land use changes alone may lead to a substantial increase in surface O3 (2-3 ppb) with important consequences for O3 air quality and ecosystem degradation at the US NPs. Our study illustrates the need to consider the effects of changes in climate, vegetation, and fires in future air quality management and planning and emission policy making

Relative Contributions of Fossil and Contemporary Carbon sources to PM 2.5 Aerosols at Nine IMPROVE Network Sites

Particulate matter aerosols contribute to haze diminishing vistas and scenery at National Parks and Wilderness Areas within the United States. To increase understanding of the sources of carbonaceous aerosols at these settings, the total carbon loading and {sup 14}C/C ratio of PM 2.5 aerosols at nine IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring for Protection Of Visual Environments) network sites were measured. Aerosols were collected weekly in the summer and winter at one rural site, two urban sites, five sites located in National Parks and one site located in a Wildlife Preserve. The carbon measurements together with the absence of {sup 14}C in fossil carbon materials and the known {sup 14}C/C levels in contemporary carbon materials were used to derive contemporary and fossil carbon contents of the particulate matter. Contemporary and fossil carbon aerosol loadings varied across the sites and suggest different percentages of carbon source inputs. The urban sites had the highest fossil carbon loadings that comprised around 50% of the total carbon aerosol loading. The Wildlife Preserve and National Park sites together with the rural site had much lower fossil carbon loading components. At these sites, variations in the total carbon aerosol loading were dominated by non-fossil carbon sources. This suggests that reduction of anthroprogenic sources of fossil carbon aerosols may result in little decrease in carbonaceous aerosol loading at many National Parks and rural areas

Carlsbad Caverns National Park Air Quality Study 2019

This data set includes fine particle and gas precursor measurements from Carlsbad Caverns National Park. The study was designed to examine the influence of regional sources, including urban emissions, oil and gas development, wildfires, and soil dust on air quality in the park. Field measurements of aerosols, trace gases and deposition were conducted from 25 July through 5 September 2019.Carlsbad Caverns National Park in southeastern New Mexico is adjacent to the Permian Basin, one of the most productive oil and gas regions in the country. The 2019 Carlsbad Caverns Air Quality Study (CarCavAQS) was designed to examine the influence of regional sources, including urban emissions, oil and gas development, wildfires, and soil dust on air quality in the park. Field measurements of aerosols, trace gases, and deposition were conducted from 25 July through 5 September 2019.This work was supported by the National Park Service Q5 [P20AC00679]

Fossil and Contemporary Fine Carbon Fractions at 12 Rural and Urban Sites in the United States

Fine particulate matter collected at two urban, four near-urban, and six remote sites throughout the United States were analyzed for total carbon (TC) and radiocarbon ({sup 14}C). Samples were collected at most sites for both a summer and winter season. The radiocarbon was used to partition the TC into fossil and contemporary fractions. On average, contemporary carbon composed about half of the carbon at the urban, {approx}70-97% at near-urban, and 82-100% at remote sites. At Phoenix, Arizona, and Seattle, Washington, one monitor was located within the urban center and one outside to assess the urban excess over background concentrations. During the summer the urban and rural sites had similar contemporary carbon concentrations. However, during the winter the urban sites had more than twice the contemporary carbon measured at the neighboring sites, indicating anthropogenic contributions to the contemporary carbon. The urban fossil carbon was 4-20 times larger than the neighboring rural sites for both seasons. Organic (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) from TOR analysis were available. These and the radiocarbon data were used to estimate characteristic fossil and contemporary EC/TC ratios for the winter and summer seasons. These ratios were applied to carbon data from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments network to estimate the fraction of contemporary carbon at mostly rural sites throughout the United States. In addition, the ratios were used to develop a semiquantitative, lower bound estimate of secondary organic carbon (SOC) contribution to fossil and contemporary carbon. SOC accounted for more than one-third of the fossil and contemporary carbon

Present and future nitrogen deposition to national parks in the United States: critical load exceedances

National parks in the United States are protected areas wherein the natural habitat is to be conserved for future generations. Deposition of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) transported from areas of human activity (fuel combustion, agriculture) may affect these natural habitats if it exceeds an ecosystem-dependent critical load (CL). We quantify and interpret the deposition to Class I US national parks for present-day and future (2050) conditions using the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model with 1/2° × 2/3° horizontal resolution over North America. We estimate CL values in the range 2.5–5 kg N ha−1 yr−1 for the different parks to protect the most sensitive ecosystem receptors. For present-day conditions, we find 24 out of 45 parks to be in CL exceedance and 14 more to be marginally so. Many of these are in remote areas of the West. Most (40–85%) of the deposition originates from NOx emissions (fuel combustion). We project future changes in N deposition using representative concentration pathway (RCP) anthropogenic emission scenarios for 2050. These feature 52–73% declines in US NOx emissions relative to present but 19–50% increases in US ammonia (NH3) emissions. Nitrogen deposition at US national parks then becomes dominated by domestic NH3 emissions. While deposition decreases in the East relative to present, there is little progress in the West and increases in some regions. We find that 17–25 US national parks will have CL exceedances in 2050 based on the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. Even in total absence of anthropogenic NOx emissions, 14–18 parks would still have a CL exceedance. Returning all parks to N deposition below CL by 2050 would require at least a 50% decrease in US anthropogenic NH3 emissions relative to RCP-projected 2050 levels.Engineering and Applied Science

Sources of nitrogen deposition in Federal Class I areas in the US

It is desired to control excessive reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition due to its detrimental impact on ecosystems. Using a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, Nr deposition in the contiguous US and eight selected Class I areas (Voyageurs (VY), Smoky Mountain (SM), Shenandoah (SD), Big Bend (BB), Rocky Mountain (RM), Grand Teton (GT), Joshua Tree (JT), and Sequoia (SQ)) is investigated. First, modeled Nr deposition is compared with National Trends Network (NTN) and Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) deposition values. The seasonality of measured species is generally well represented by the model (R2 > 0.6), except in JT. While modeled Nr is generally within the range of seasonal observations, large overestimates are present in sites such as SM and SD in the spring and summer (up to 0.6 kg N ha month−1), likely owing to model high-biases in surface HNO3. The contribution of non-measured species (mostly dry deposition of NH3) to total modeled Nr deposition ranges from 1 to 55 %. The spatial distribution of the origin of Nr deposited in each Class I area and the contributions of individual emission sectors are estimated using the GEOS-Chem adjoint model. We find the largest role of long-range transport for VY, where 50 % (90 %) of annual Nr deposition originates within 670 (1670) km of the park. In contrast, the Nr emission footprint is most localized for SQ, where 50 % (90 %) of the deposition originates from within 130 (370) km. Emissions from California contribute to the Nr deposition in remote areas in the western US (RM, GT). Mobile NOx and livestock NH3 are found to be the major sources of Nr deposition in all sites except BB, where contributions of NOx from lightning and soils to natural levels of Nr deposition are significant (∼ 40 %). The efficiency in terms of Nr deposition per kg emissions of NH3-N, NOx-N, and SO2-S are also estimated. Unique seasonal features are found in JT (opposing efficiency distributions for winter and summer), RM (large fluctuations in the range of effective regions), and SD (upwind NH3 emissions hindering Nr deposition). We also evaluate the contributions of emissions to the total area of Class I regions in critical load exceedance, and to the total magnitude of exceedance. We find that while it is effective to control emissions in the western US to reduce the area of regions in CL exceedance, it can be more effective to control emissions in the eastern US to reduce the magnitude of Nr deposition above the CL. Finally, uncertainty in the nitrogen deposition caused by uncertainty in the NH3 emission inventory is explored by comparing results based on two different NH3 inventories; noticeable differences in the emission inventories and thus sensitivities of up to a factor of four found in individual locations

Meteorological and Back Trajectory Modeling for the Rocky Mountain Atmospheric Nitrogen and Sulfur Study II

The Rocky Mountain Atmospheric Nitrogen and Sulfur (RoMANS II) study with field operations during November 2008 through November 2009 was designed to evaluate the composition and sources of reactive nitrogen in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. As part of RoMANS II, a mesoscale meteorological model was utilized to provide input for back trajectory and chemical transport models. Evaluation of the model's ability to capture important transport patterns in this region of complex terrain is discussed. Previous source-receptor studies of nitrogen in this region are also reviewed. Finally, results of several back trajectory analyses for RoMANS II are presented. The trajectory mass balance (TrMB) model, a receptor-based linear regression technique, was used to estimate mean source attributions of airborne ammonia concentrations during RoMANS II. Though ammonia concentrations are usually higher when there is transport from the east, the TrMB model estimates that, on average, areas to the west contribute a larger mean fraction of the ammonia. Possible reasons for this are discussed and include the greater frequency of westerly versus easterly winds, the possibility that ammonia is transported long distances as ammonium nitrate, and the difficulty of correctly modeling the transport winds in this area

Volatile organic compounds and ozone in Rocky Mountain National Park during FRAPPÉ

The 2014 Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment (FRAPPÉ) aimed to better characterize summertime air quality in the Northern Front Range Metropolitan Area (NFRMA) and its impact on surrounding areas. As part of this study, measurements of gas- and particle-phase species were collected in Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO), located in the mountains west of the urban northern Front Range corridor from July to October 2014. We report on measurements of ozone from two locations in the park and a suite of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) measured using a continuous real-time gas chromatography (GC) system and a quadrupole proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometer (PRT-MS) at the ROMO Longs Peak (ROMO-LP) air quality site. We also measured VOCs using canister samples collected along transects connecting the NFRMA and ROMO. These datasets show that ROMO is impacted by NFRMA emission sources, and high observed mixing ratios of VOCs associated with oil and gas extraction (e.g. ethane) and urban sources (e.g. ethene and C2Cl4) occur during periods of upslope transport. Hourly ozone mixing ratios exceeded 70&thinsp;ppb during six events. Two of the six events were largely associated with VOCs from the oil and gas sector, three high ozone events were associated with a mixture of VOCs from urban and oil and gas sources, and one high ozone event was driven by a stratospheric intrusion. For the high ozone events most associated with emissions from oil and gas activities, we estimate that VOCs and NOx from sources along the Front Range contributed ∼20&thinsp;ppbv of additional ozone.</p

Les Houches 2015: Physics at TeV Colliders Standard Model Working Group Report

This Report summarizes the proceedings of the 2015 Les Houches workshop on Physics at TeV Colliders. Session 1 dealt with (I) new developments relevant for high precision Standard Model calculations, (II) the new PDF4LHC parton distributions, (III) issues in the theoretical description of the production of Standard Model Higgs bosons and how to relate experimental measurements, (IV) a host of phenomenological studies essential for comparing LHC data from Run I with theoretical predictions and projections for future measurements in Run II, and (V) new developments in Monte Carlo event generators.Comment: Proceedings of the Standard Model Working Group of the 2015 Les Houches Workshop, Physics at TeV Colliders, Les Houches 1-19 June 2015. 227 page

Scaling Patterns for QCD Jets

Jet emission at hadron colliders follows simple scaling patterns. Based on perturbative QCD we derive Poisson and staircase scaling for final state as well as initial state radiation. Parton density effects enhance staircase scaling at low multiplicities. We propose experimental tests of our theoretical findings in Z+jets and QCD gap jets production based on minor additions to current LHC analyses.Comment: 36 pages, 16 figure