Reliability of Public Private Partnership Projects under Assumptions of Cash Flow Volatility

This paper focuses on dynamic financial modelling of recurring cash flow items in PPP projects in operating stage and on risks associated with the volatility of these cash flows. As we concentrate on so-called government-pays schemes, only cash-outflows are considered, such as operating costs, repairs and maintenance expenses, and administration costs, whereas the revenue side is considered to be not at risk. We show different approaches to modelling the uncertainty of recurring operating expenses and explain how to interpret the results. Our analysis is based on the mathematical framework of stochastic processes, which, in finance, are particularly used to describe price series evolutions in capital markets. We apply them to generate variable trajectories of operating costs and integrate them into a stochastic simulation of the financial model.

Conditioned Sovereignty: The Creation and Legitimation of Spaces of Violence in Counterterrorism Operations of the “War on Terror”

We argue that the spatialization of violence in the counterterrorism operations of the War on Terror provides insight for understanding how these operations are legitimized and how they pose a challenge to an international order centered on state sovereignty. Against the background of a discussion of the key markers of statehood and recent normative challenges to state sovereignty, we interpret how discourses about “ungoverned spaces” influence the creation of spaces of violence in counterterrorism operations of the War on Terror. We then offer a conceptualization of these new spaces of violence, comparing “ungoverned spaces” discourse with the logic and justification of recent drone strikes. Finally, we interrogate how the existence of these different spatializations of violence fulfill legitimatory purposes in the War on Terror and what this means for the future of the international order

Psychosocial Predictors of Metabolic Syndrome among Latino Groups in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

ObjectiveWe sought to determine the contribution of psychological variables to risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS) among Latinos enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), and to investigate whether social support moderates these associations, and whether inflammatory markers mediate the association between psychological variables and MetS.Research design and methodsCross-sectional analyses at study baseline were conducted with a national Latino cohort (n = 1,388) that included Mexican Americans, Dominican Americans, Puerto Rican Americans and Central/South Americans. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses were conducted to test the effects of psychosocial variables (chronic stress, depressive symptoms, and social support) on MetS. In addition, separate subgroup-specific models, controlling for nationality, age, gender, socioeconomic position, language spoken at home, exercise, smoking and drinking status, and testing for the effects of chronic stress, depressive symptoms and inflammation (IL-6, CRP, fibrinogen) in predicting risk for MetS were conducted.ResultsIn the overall sample, high chronic stress independently predicted risk for MetS, however this association was found to be significant only in Mexican Americans and Puerto Rican Americans. Social support did not moderate the associations between chronic stress and MetS for any group. Chronic stress was not associated with inflammatory markers in either the overall sample or in each group.ConclusionsOur results suggest a differential contribution of chronic stress to the prevalence of MetS by national groups

Cooperation with the Taliban? Promoting civil society engagement in Afghanistan (commentary)

In addition to addressing the extent and cause of the debacle in Afghanistan, the new German Government must urgently consider how to set a new course to prevent further destabilisation of the country

Addressing food crises in violent conflicts

Food insecurity and hunger continue to threaten the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. Many of today's food crises are linked to violent conflicts in various ways. The number of people affected by conflict-driven food crises increased from 74 million in 2018 to more than 77 million one year later—particularly in north-eastern Nigeria, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen. The achievement of food security ending hunger and malnutrition and enabling sustainable agriculture production as addressed by Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 'Zero Hunger' depends therefore largely on progress made on SDG 16 in promoting peaceful and inclusive societies. However, the severe food crises in the past decade have demonstrated the weaknesses to govern food (in)security in conflict settings. While national governments or belligerents are often unable or unwilling to respond adequately to food crises, humanitarian relief operations face the challenges of reaching those people most in need of food supply and simultaneously avoiding exacerbating the conflict. This has left many of the affected communities having to find their own responses to food insecurity. If food crises are to be effectively addressed, research and policy actions need to tackle both food crises and violent conflict

"Leaving them behind" - global trends in forced migration

Regions with civil wars will continue to be characterised by endemic violent conflicts and forced displacement in the coming decade. Accordingly, the number of displaced people from war-like contexts will increase. Due to the absence of durable solutions the number of forcibly displaced people who informally remain in a receiving country without a chance of ever obtaining citizenship of that country will grow. Countries of the Global South are likely to follow the practices of the Global North and refuse reception of refugees or even enforce collective deportation. This makes it all the more difficult to implement international agreements to manage forced displacement. Forced migrants are increasingly seeking protection in urban agglomerations. This increases the risk that social services in the cities will collapse and societal tensions will mount. Against the backdrop of the increasing duration and cyclical recurrence of violent conflict, the operational separation between refugees and IDPs can hardly be maintained. In addition, the boundaries between humanitarian aid and development cooperation will blur ever more. Aid organisations will be caught in a situation in which their engagement in support of displaced people might at the same time contribute to accommodating donors' interests of channelling and impeding refugee movements

Dielectric behavior of Copper Tantalum Oxide

A thorough investigation of the dielectric properties of Cu2Ta4O12, a material crystallizing in a pseudo-cubic, perovskite-derived structure is presented. We measured the dielectric constant and conductivity of single crystals in an exceptionally broad frequency range up to GHz frequencies and at temperatures from 25 - 500 K. The detected dielectric constant is unusually high (reaching values up to 105) and almost constant in a broad frequency and temperature range. Cu2Ta4O12 possesses a crystal structure similar to CaCu3Ti4O12, the compound for which such an unusually high dielectric constant was first observed. An analysis of the results using a simple equivalent circuit and measurements with different types of contact revealed that extrinsic interfacial polarization effects, derived from surface barrier capacitors are the origin of the observed giant dielectric constants. The intrinsic properties of Cu2Ta4O12 are characterized by a (still relatively high) dielectric constant in the order of 100 and by charge transport via hopping conduction of Anderson-localized charge carriers.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figures, submitted to Jouranl of Physical Chemestr