Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems

The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the UK and Northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized by the anomalous planetary wave-1 amplification followed by the anomalous wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere, which resulted in a split vortex occurring between 6 January 2013 and 8 January 2013. The models have some success in reproducing wave-1 activity when initialized 15 days in advance, they but generally failed to produce the wave-2 activity during the final days of the event. Detailed analysis shows that models have reasonably good skill in forecasting tropospheric blocking features that stimulate wave-2 amplification in the troposphere, but they have limited skill in reproducing wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere

Epigenetic Alterations in Liver of C57BL/6J Mice after Short-Term Inhalational Exposure to 1,3-Butadiene

Background1,3-Butadiene (BD) is a high-volume industrial chemical and a known human carcinogen. The main mode of BD carcinogenicity is thought to involve formation of genotoxic epoxides.ObjectivesIn this study we tested the hypothesis that BD may be epigenotoxic (i.e., cause changes in DNA and histone methylation) and explored the possible molecular mechanisms for the epigenetic changes.Methods and ResultsWe administered BD (6.25 and 625 ppm) to C57BL/6J male mice by inhalation for 2 weeks (6 hr/day, 5 days a week) and then examined liver tissue from these mice for signs of toxicity using histopathology and gene expression analyses. We observed no changes in mice exposed to 6.25 ppm BD, but glycogen depletion and dysregulation of hepatotoxicity biomarker genes were observed in mice exposed to 625 ppm BD. We detected N-7-(2,3,4-trihydroxybut-1-yl)guanine (THB-Gua) adducts in liver DNA of exposed mice in a dose-responsive manner, and also observed extensive alterations in the cellular epigenome in the liver, including demethylation of global DNA and repetitive elements and a decrease in histone H3 and H4 lysine methylation. In addition, we observed down-regulation of DNA methyltransferase 1 (Dnmt1) and suppressor of variegation 3–9 homolog 1, a histone lysine methyltransferase (Suv39h1), and up-regulation of the histone demethylase Jumonji domain 2 (Jmjd2a), proteins responsible for the accurate maintenance of the epigenetic marks. Although the epigenetic effects were most pronounced in the 625-ppm exposure group, some effects were evident in mice exposed to 6.25 ppm BD.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that exposure to BD leads to epigenetic alterations in the liver, which may be important contributors to the mode of BD carcinogenicity

A comparison of bioclimatic conditions on Franz Josef Land (the Arctic) between the turn of the nineteenth to twentieth century and present day

The paper presents the variability of meteorological conditions: air temperature, wind speed and relative air humidity; and biometeorological indices: wind chill temperature, predicted clothing insulation and accepted level of physical activity on Franz Josef Land (in Teplitz Bay and Calm Bay) in the years 1899–1931. It employs meteorological measurements taken during four scientific expeditions to the study area. The analysis mainly covered the period October–April, for which the most complete data set is available. For that period of the year, which includes the part of the year with the Franz Josef Land’s coldest air temperatures, the range and nature of changes in meteorological and biometeorological conditions between historical periods and the modern period (1981–2010) were studied. The data analysis revealed that during the three oldest expeditions (which took place in the years 1899–1914), the biometeorological conditions in the study area were more harsh to humans than in the modern period (1981–2010) or similarly harsh. In contrast, during the 1930/1931 expedition, which represents the Early Twentieth CenturyWarming (ETCW), conditions were clearly more favourable (including predicted clothing insulation being 0.3 clo lower and 4.0 °C higher wind chill temperature than conditions observed nowadays)