215 research outputs found
Forced versus coupled dynamics in Earth system modelling and prediction
International audienceWe compare coupled nonlinear climate models and their simplified forced counterparts with respect to predictability and phase space topology. Various types of uncertainty plague climate change simulation, which is, in turn, a crucial element of Earth System modelling. Since the currently preferred strategy for simulating the climate system, or the Earth System at large, is the coupling of sub-system modules (representing, e.g. atmosphere, oceans, global vegetation), this paper explicitly addresses the errors and indeterminacies generated by the coupling procedure. The focus is on a comparison of forced dynamics as opposed to fully, i.e. intrinsically, coupled dynamics. The former represents a particular type of simulation, where the time behaviour of one complex systems component is prescribed by data or some other external information source. Such a simplifying technique is often employed in Earth System models in order to save computing resources, in particular when massive model inter-comparisons need to be carried out. Our contribution to the debate is based on the investigation of two representative model examples, namely (i) a low-dimensional coupled atmosphere-ocean simulator, and (ii) a replica-like simulator embracing corresponding components.Whereas in general the forced version (ii) is able to mimic its fully coupled counterpart (i), we show in this paper that for a considerable fraction of parameter- and state-space, the two approaches qualitatively differ. Here we take up a phenomenon concerning the predictability of coupled versus forced models that was reported earlier in this journal: the observation that the time series of the forced version display artificial predictive skill. We present an explanation in terms of nonlinear dynamical theory. In particular we observe an intermittent version of artificial predictive skill, which we call on-off synchronization, and trace it back to the appearance of unstable periodic orbits. We also find it to be governed by a scaling law that allows us to estimate the probability of artificial predictive skill. In addition to artificial predictability we observe artificial bistability for the forced version, which has not been reported so far. The results suggest that bistability and intermittent predictability, when found in a forced model set-up, should always be cross-validated with alternative coupling designs before being taken for granted
Forecasting the El Ni\~no type well before the spring predictability barrier
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of
interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events
and disasters in various parts of the globe. Depending on the region of maximal
warming, El Ni\~no events can be partitioned into 2 types, Eastern Pacific (EP)
and Central Pacific (CP) events. The type of an El Ni\~no has a major influence
on its impact and can even lead to either dry or wet conditions in the same
areas on the globe. Here we show that the zonal difference
between the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the equatorial western
Pacific and central Pacific gives an early indication of the type of an
upcoming El Ni\~no: When at the end of a year, is positive,
an event in the following year will be probably an EP event, otherwise a CP
event. Between 1950 and present, 3/4 of the EP forecasts and all CP forecasts
are correct. When combining this approach with a previously introduced
climate-network approach, we obtain reliable forecasts for both the onset and
the type of an event: at a lead time of about one year, 2/3 of the EP forecasts
and all CP forecasts in the regarded period are correct. The combined model has
considerably more predictive power than the current operational type forecasts
with a mean lead time of about 1 month and should allow early mitigation
measures.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figure
Forced versus coupled dynamics in Earth system modelling and prediction
We compare coupled nonlinear climate models and their simplified forced counterparts with respect to predictability and phase space topology. Various types of uncertainty plague climate change simulation, which is, in turn, a crucial element of Earth System modelling. Since the currently preferred strategy for simulating the climate system, or the Earth System at large, is the coupling of sub-system modules (representing, e.g. atmosphere, oceans, global vegetation), this paper explicitly addresses the errors and indeterminacies generated by the coupling procedure. The focus is on a comparison of forced dynamics as opposed to fully, i.e. intrinsically, coupled dynamics. The former represents a particular type of simulation, where the time behaviour of one complex systems component is prescribed by data or some other external information source. Such a simplifying technique is often employed in Earth System models in order to save computing resources, in particular when massive model inter-comparisons need to be carried out. Our contribution to the debate is based on the investigation of two representative model examples, namely (i) a low-dimensional coupled atmosphere-ocean simulator, and (ii) a replica-like simulator embracing corresponding components.Whereas in general the forced version (ii) is able to mimic its fully coupled counterpart (i), we show in this paper that for a considerable fraction of parameter- and state-space, the two approaches qualitatively differ. Here we take up a phenomenon concerning the predictability of coupled versus forced models that was reported earlier in this journal: the observation that the time series of the forced version display artificial predictive skill. We present an explanation in terms of nonlinear dynamical theory. In particular we observe an intermittent version of artificial predictive skill, which we call on-off synchronization, and trace it back to the appearance of unstable periodic orbits. We also find it to be governed by a scaling law that allows us to estimate the probability of artificial predictive skill. In addition to artificial predictability we observe artificial bistability for the forced version, which has not been reported so far. The results suggest that bistability and intermittent predictability, when found in a forced model set-up, should always be cross-validated with alternative coupling designs before being taken for granted
Butterfly-like spectra and collective modes of antidot superlattices in magnetic fields
We calculate the energy band structure for electrons in an external periodic
potential combined with a perpendicular magnetic field. Electron-electron
interactions are included within a Hartree approximation. The calculated energy
spectra display a considerable degree of self-similarity, just as the
``Hofstadter butterfly.'' However, screening affects the butterfly, most
importantly the bandwidths oscillate with magnetic field in a characteristic
way. We also investigate the dynamic response of the electron system in the
far-infrared (FIR) regime. Some of the peaks in the FIR absorption spectra can
be interpreted mainly in semiclassical terms, while others originate from
inter(sub)band transitions.Comment: 4 pages with 2 embeded eps figures. Uses revtex, multicol and
graphicx styles. Accepted for publication in PRB Brief Report
The Exact Ground State of the Frenkel-Kontorova Model with Repeated Parabolic Potential: II. Numerical Treatment
A procedure is described for efficiently finding the ground state energy and
configuration for a Frenkel-Kontorova model in a periodic potential, consisting
of N parabolic segments of identical curvature in each period, through a
numerical solution of the convex minimization problem described in the
preceding paper. The key elements are the use of subdifferentials to describe
the structure of the minimization problem; an intuitive picture of how to solve
it, based on motion of quasiparticles; and a fast linear optimization method
with a reduced memory requirement. The procedure has been tested for N up to
200.Comment: 9 RevTeX pages, using AMS-Fonts (amssym.tex,amssym.def), 3 Postscript
figures, accepted by Phys.Rev.B to be published together with
cond-mat/970722
Strong time dependence of ocean acidification mitigation by atmospheric carbon dioxide removal
In Paris in 2015, the global community agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 ∘C, aiming at even 1.5 ∘C. It is still uncertain whether these targets are sufficient to preserve marine ecosystems and prevent a severe alteration of marine biogeochemical cycles. Here, we show that stringent mitigation strategies consistent with the 1.5 ∘C scenario could, indeed, provoke a critical difference for the ocean’s carbon cycle and calcium carbonate saturation states. Favorable conditions for calcifying organisms like tropical corals and polar pteropods, both of major importance for large ecosystems, can only be maintained if CO2 emissions fall rapidly between 2025 and 2050, potentially requiring an early deployment of CO2 removal techniques in addition to drastic emissions reduction. Furthermore, this outcome can only be achieved if the terrestrial biosphere remains a carbon sink during the entire 21st century
Global climate models violate scaling of the observed atmospheric variability
We test the scaling performance of seven leading global climate models by
using detrended fluctuation analysis. We analyse temperature records of six
representative sites around the globe simulated by the models, for two
different scenarios: (i) with greenhouse gas forcing only and (ii) with
greenhouse gas plus aerosol forcing. We find that the simulated records for
both scenarios fail to reproduce the universal scaling behavior of the observed
records, and display wide performance differences. The deviations from the
scaling behavior are more pronounced in the first scenario, where also the
trends are clearly overestimated.Comment: Accepted for publishing in Physical Review Letter
Bloch Electrons in a Magnetic Field - Why Does Chaos Send Electrons the Hard Way?
We find that a 2D periodic potential with different modulation amplitudes in
x- and y-direction and a perpendicular magnetic field may lead to a transition
to electron transport along the direction of stronger modulation and to
localization in the direction of weaker modulation. In the experimentally
accessible regime we relate this new quantum transport phenomenon to avoided
band crossing due to classical chaos.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, minor modifications, PRL to appea
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