Demand forecasting with user-generated online information

Recently, there has been substantial research on augmenting aggregate forecasts with individual consumer data from internet platforms, such as search traffic or social network shares. Although the majority of studies report increased accuracy, many exhibit design weaknesses including lack of adequate benchmarks or rigorous evaluation. Furthermore, their usefulness over the product life-cycle has not been investigated, which may change, as initially, consumers may search for pre-purchase information, but later for after-sales support. In this study, we first review the relevant literature and then attempt to support the key findings using two forecasting case studies. Our findings are in stark contrast to the literature, and we find that established univariate forecasting benchmarks, such as exponential smoothing, consistently perform better than when online information is included. Our research underlines the need for thorough forecast evaluation and argues that online platform data may be of limited use for supporting operational decisions

Prevalence and incidence of iron deficiency in European community-dwelling older adults : An observational analysis of the DO-HEALTH trial

Background and aim Iron deficiency is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in older adults. However, data on its prevalence and incidence among older adults is limited. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence and incidence of iron deficiency in European community-dwelling older adults aged ≥ 70 years. Methods Secondary analysis of the DO-HEALTH trial, a 3-year clinical trial including 2157 community-dwelling adults aged ≥ 70 years from Austria, France, Germany, Portugal and Switzerland. Iron deficiency was defined as soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR) > 28.1 nmol/L. Prevalence and incidence rate (IR) of iron deficiency per 100 person-years were examined overall and stratified by sex, age group, and country. Sensitivity analysis for three commonly used definitions of iron deficiency (ferritin  1.5) were also performed. Results Out of 2157 participants, 2141 had sTfR measured at baseline (mean age 74.9 years; 61.5% women). The prevalence of iron deficiency at baseline was 26.8%, and did not differ by sex, but by age (35.6% in age group ≥ 80, 29.3% in age group 75–79, 23.2% in age group 70–74); P  1.5. Occurrences of iron deficiency were observed with IR per 100 person-years of 9.2 (95% CI 8.3–10.1) and did not significantly differ by sex or age group. The highest IR per 100 person-years was observed in Austria (20.8, 95% CI 16.1–26.9), the lowest in Germany (6.1, 95% CI 4.7–8.0). Regarding the other definitions of iron deficiency, the IR per 100 person-years was 4.5 (95% CI 4.0–4.9) for ferritin  1.5. Conclusions Iron deficiency is frequent among relatively healthy European older adults, with people aged ≥ 80 years and residence in Austria and Portugal associated with the highest risk

Haptoglobin Treatment for Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Review and Expert Consensus on Clinical Translation

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is a devastating form of stroke frequently affecting young to middle-aged adults, with an unmet need to improve outcome. This special report focusses on the development of intrathecal haptoglobin supplementation as a treatment by reviewing current knowledge and progress, arriving at a Delphi-based global consensus regarding the pathophysiological role of extracellular hemoglobin and research priorities for clinical translation of hemoglobin-scavenging therapeutics. After aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, erythrocyte lysis generates cell-free hemoglobin in the cerebrospinal fluid, which is a strong determinant of secondary brain injury and long-term clinical outcome. Haptoglobin is the body's first-line defense against cell-free hemoglobin by binding it irreversibly, preventing translocation of hemoglobin into the brain parenchyma and nitric oxide-sensitive functional compartments of cerebral arteries. In mouse and sheep models, intraventricular administration of haptoglobin reversed hemoglobin-induced clinical, histological, and biochemical features of human aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. Clinical translation of this strategy imposes unique challenges set by the novel mode of action and the anticipated need for intrathecal drug administration, necessitating early input from stakeholders. Practising clinicians (n=72) and scientific experts (n=28) from 5 continents participated in the Delphi study. Inflammation, microvascular spasm, initial intracranial pressure increase, and disruption of nitric oxide signaling were deemed the most important pathophysiological pathways determining outcome. Cell-free hemoglobin was thought to play an important role mostly in pathways related to iron toxicity, oxidative stress, nitric oxide, and inflammation. While useful, there was consensus that further preclinical work was not a priority, with most believing the field was ready for an early phase trial. The highest research priorities were related to confirming haptoglobin's anticipated safety, individualized versus standard dosing, timing of treatment, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and outcome measure selection. These results highlight the need for early phase trials of intracranial haptoglobin for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, and the value of early input from clinical disciplines on a global scale during the early stages of clinical translation

Measurement of jet-substructure observables in top quark, W boson and light jet production in proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of jet substructure observables is presented using data collected in 2016 by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC with proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV. Large-radius jets groomed with the trimming and soft-drop algorithms are studied. Dedicated event selections are used to study jets produced by light quarks or gluons, and hadronically decaying top quarks and W bosons. The observables measured are sensitive to substructure, and therefore are typically used for tagging large-radius jets from boosted massive particles. These include the energy correlation functions and the N-subjettiness variables. The number of subjets and the Les Houches angularity are also considered. The distributions of the substructure variables, corrected for detector effects, are compared to the predictions of various Monte Carlo event generators. They are also compared between the large-radius jets originating from light quarks or gluons, and hadronically decaying top quarks and W bosons

Business forecasting with online buzz

In our fast-paced business world with changing consumer preferences, the demand for product life-cycles have shortened and become more volatile. This is the case for both own and competitors' products. To cope with those challenges, practitioners and researchers focus their attention on augmenting forecasting models by incorporating additional information such as online buzz. Online buzz reflects discussions around corporate and user-generated online content, such as social media interactions, forum discussions and online search. A majority of studies report forecast accuracy gains from its inclusion. However, on closer examination, many of these studies exhibit design weaknesses including lack of adequate benchmarking or rigorous evaluation, questioning their reported estimates. This thesis focuses on three research questions: (i)~What is the predictive value of post-release buzz and usability for operational decision making? (ii)~Can pre-release buzz help to estimate the market potential for sequential released new products? (iii)~How suitable is pre-release buzz to predict competitors' new product success? Our findings are mixed, by demonstrating both its potential, but also limitations of its usefulness. We conclude that online buzz is beneficial during the pre-release case, but not for the post-release phase. In the latter case, online buzz has little if any predictive signal, when considering realistic business lead times, explained by the frequently instant buying decisions and mixed pre- and post-purchase signals. On the other hand, pre-release buzz, which has a clear anticipatory characteristic, enhances new product forecasts. Our proposed framework demonstrates that pre-release buzz is beneficial also in predicting market potential. Moreover, it can be used to construct reliable forecasts for competitors' new products, providing market critical competitive intelligence. The thesis concludes with managerial implications and identifies future research directions stemming from this work and the critical reflection of the often hyped online buzz

High Triplet Energy Iridium(III) Isocyanoborato Complex for Photochemical Upconversion, Photoredox and Energy Transfer Catalysis

Cyclometalated Ir(III) complexes are often chosen as catalysts for challenging photoredox and triplet-triplet-energy-transfer (TTET) catalyzed reactions, and they are of interest for upconversion into the ultraviolet spectral range. However, the triplet energies of commonly employed Ir(III) photosensitizers are typically limited to values around 2.5-2.75 eV. Here, we report on a new Ir(III) luminophore, with an unusually high triplet energy near 3.0 eV owing to the modification of a previously reported Ir(III) complex with isocyanoborato ligands. Compared to a nonborylated cyanido precursor complex, the introduction of B(C6F5)(3) units in the second coordination sphere results in substantially improved photophysical properties, in particular a high luminescence quantum yield (0.87) and a long excited-state lifetime (13.0 mu s), in addition to the high triplet energy. These favorable properties (including good long-term photostability) facilitate exceptionally challenging organic triplet photoreactions and (sensitized) triplet-triplet annihilation upconversion to a fluorescent singlet excited state beyond 4 eV, unusually deep in the ultraviolet region. The new Ir(III) complex photocatalyzes a sigmatropic shift and [2 + 2] cycloaddition reactions that are unattainable with common transition metal based photosensitizers. In the presence of a sacrificial electron donor, it furthermore is applicable to demanding photoreductions, including dehalogenations, detosylations, and the degradation of a lignin model substrate. Our study demonstrates how rational ligand design of transition-metal complexes (including underexplored second coordination sphere effects) can be used to enhance their photophysical properties and thereby broaden their application potential in solar energy conversion and synthetic photochemistry