Assessing the adaptation of arable farmers to climate change using DEA and bio-economic modelling

The objective of this article is to assess the impact of climate change on arable farming systems in Flevoland (the Netherlands) and to explore the adoption of different adaptation strategies. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is applied that uses empirical data from individual farms to identify “best” current farm practices and derive relationships regarding current farm managemen

Adapting agriculture in 2050 in Flevoland; perspectives from stakeholders

Although recently more research has gone into farm level studies, little attention has been given to the variety of responses of farmers, considering their characteristics, objectives and the socio-economic, technological and political contexts (Reidsma et al, 2010). In the Agri-Adapt project we focus on farm level adaptation within an agricultural region considering the socio-economic context of 2050

Climate change adaptation in agriculture; the use of multi-scale modelling and stakeholder participation in the Netherlands

Abstract about a research project to develop a methodology to assess adaptation of agriculture to climatic and socio-economic changes at multiple scales, with a first application in the Province of Flevoland, the Netherlands

Tailoring information about climate change and its impacts

Resultaten van onderzoek naar klimaatverandering en de mogelijke effecten zijn vaak niet beschikbaar in een vorm waarin ze direct door anderen gebruikt kunnen worden. Gebruikers van klimaat- en impactinformatie hebben vaak ook geen goed overzicht over de beschikbare gegevens van alle sectoren en resultaten zijn soms inconsistent

Prediction of biopore- and matrix-dominated flow from X-ray CT-derived macropore network characteristics

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Star formation thresholds and galaxy edges: why and where

We study global star formation thresholds in the outer parts of galaxies by investigating the stability of disk galaxies embedded in dark halos. The disks are self-gravitating, contain metals and dust, and are exposed to UV radiation. We find that the critical surface density for the existence of a cold interstellar phase depends only weakly on the parameters of the model and coincides with the empirically derived surface density threshold for star formation. Furthermore, it is shown that the drop in the thermal velocity dispersion associated with the transition from the warm to the cold gas phase triggers gravitational instability on a wide range of scales. The presence of strong turbulence does not undermine this conclusion if the disk is self-gravitating. Models based on the hypothesis that the onset of thermal instability determines the star formation threshold in the outer parts of galaxies can reproduce many observations, including the threshold radii, column densities, and the sizes of stellar disks as a function of disk scale length and mass. Finally, prescriptions are given for implementing star formation thresholds in (semi-)analytic models and three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy formation.Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. Version 2: text significantly revised (major improvements), physics unchanged. Version 3: minor correction

High-Latitude HI in the Low Surface Brightness Galaxy UGC7321

From the analysis of sensitive HI 21-cm line observations, we find evidence for vertically extended HI emission (|z|<~2.4 kpc) in the edge-on, low surface brightness spiral galaxy UGC7321. Three-dimensional modelling suggests that the HI disk of UGC7321 is both warped and flared, but that neither effect can fully reproduce the spatial distribution and kinematics of the highest z-height gas. We are able to model the high-latitude emission as an additional HI component in the form of a ``thick disk'' or ``halo'' with a FWHM~3.3 kpc. We find tentative evidence that the vertically extended gas declines in rotational velocity as a function of z, although we are unable to completely rule out models with constant V(z). In spite of the low star formation rate of UGC7321, energy from supernovae may be sufficient to sustain this high-latitude gas. However, alternative origins for this material, such as slow, sustained infall, cannot yet be excluded.Comment: to appear in the August 20 Astrophysical Journal; 17 pages; version with full resolution figures available at http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/~lmatthew

Spatial variability of throughfall water and chemistry and forest floor water content in a Douglas fir forest stand

International audienceThis study focuses on spatial variability of throughfall water and chemistry and forest floor water content within a Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii, Franco L.) forest plot. Spatial patterns of water and chemistry (NH4+, NO3?, SO42-, Cl?, Mg2+, Ca2+, Na+ and K+) were compared and tested for stability over time. The spatial coefficient of variation (CV) was between 18 and 26% for amounts of throughfall water and ions, and 17% for forest floor water content. Concentrations and amounts of all ions were correlated significantly. Ion concentrations were negatively correlated with throughfall water amounts, but, except for NH4+, there was no such relation between throughfall water and ion amounts. Spatial patterns of throughfall water fluxes and forest floor water contents were consistent over time; patterns of ion fluxes were somewhat less stable. Because of the spatial variability of forest floor thickness and drainage, it was not possible to relate patterns in throughfall water directly to patterns in water content. The spatial variability of throughfall nitrogen and forest floor water contents can cause significant variability in NO3? production within the plot studied. Keywords: nutrient throughfall, forest floor water, spatial variability, time-stability, nitrogen</p

The nitrate aerosol field over Europe: simulations with an atmospheric chemistry-transport model of intermediate complexity

International audienceNitrate is an important component of fine aerosols in Europe. We present a model simulation for the year 1995 in which we account for the formation of the ammonium nitrate, a semi volatile component. For this purpose, LOTOS, a chemistry-transport model of intermediate complexity, was extended with a thermodynamic equilibrium module and additional relevant processes to account for aerosol formation and deposition. Our earlier analysis of data on (ammonium) nitrate in Europe was used for model evaluation. During winter, fall and especially spring high nitrate levels are projected over north western, central and eastern Europe. During winter nitrate concentrations are highest in the Po valley, Italy. This is in accordance with the field that was constructed from the data. In winter nitric acid, the precursor for aerosol nitrate, is formed through heterogeneous reactions on the surface of aerosols. Appreciable ammonium nitrate concentrations in summer are limited to those areas with high ammonia emissions, e.g. The Netherlands, since high ammonia concentrations are necessary to stabilise this aerosol component at high temperatures. Averaged over all stations the model reproduces the measured concentrations for NO3, SO4, NH4, TNO3, TNH4 and SO2 within 20%. The daily variation is captured well, albeit that the model does not always represents the amplitude of single events. The model underestimates wet deposition which was attributed to the crude representation of cloud processes. The treatment of ammonia was found to be the major source for uncertainties in the model representation of secondary aerosols. Also, inclusion of sea salt is necessary to properly assess the nitrate and nitric acid levels in marine areas. Over Europe the annual forcing by nitrate is calculated to be 25% of that by sulphate. In summer nitrate is found to be regionally important, e.g. in The Netherlands, where the forcing of nitrate and sulphate are calculated to be equal. In winter, spring and fall the nitrate forcing over Europe is about half that by sulphate. Over north western Europe and the alpine region the forcing by nitrate was calculated to be similar to that of sulphate. Overall, nitrate forcing is significant and should be taken into account to estimate the impact of regional climate change in Europe