Abstract about a research project to develop a methodology to assess adaptation of agriculture to climatic and socio-economic changes at multiple scales, with a first application in the Province of Flevoland, the Netherlands

Ewert, F.

Ittersum, M.K., van

Kanellopoulos, A.

Mandryk, M.

Reidsma, P.

Schaap, B.F.

Verhagen, J.

Wolf, J.

English

van Ittersum, M.K.

NARCIS 

Climate change adaptation in agriculture; the use of multi-scale modelling and stakeholder participation in the Netherlands

Name not available

Wageningen Yield 

2 pages MAXIMUM (including illustration and references) 
Shorter or longer Abstracts will not be accepted 
Climate change adaptation in agriculture; the use of multi-scale modelling and stakeholder 
participation in the Netherlands 
 
Ben Schaapa, Pytrik Reidsmab, Frank Ewertc, Argyris Kanellopoulosb, Maryia Mandrykb, Jan Verhagena, Joost Wolfb 
and Martin van Ittersumb 
aWageningen University and Researchcentre, Agrosystems Research, P.O. Box 616, 6700 AP Wageningen, The 
Netherlands 
bWageningen University and Researchcentre, Plant Production Systems Group, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK 
Wageningen, The Netherlands 
cUniversity of Bonn, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Katzenburgweg 5, D – 53115 
Bonn, Germany 
 
Introduction 
Agriculture in the Netherlands evolves due to changes in policy, socio-economic and climatic 
conditions. Over the past 50 years, the overall number of farms decreased by 75%, while the 
average farm area increased from 6 to 26 ha. Climate change impact and adaptation assessments 
have largely focused on current farming systems and technologies, and addressed food 
production mainly (Reidsma et al., 2010). This is remarkable as it is likely that the dynamics in 
policies, rates of technological advances and farm structural change are at least as important. 
When looking at 2050 not only the climate will have changed but also farming systems, available 
technologies and various contextual factors will differ from today (Meerburg et al., 2009). While 
some farms in rural areas will become more multifunctional, others remain production oriented 
and change their farm structure. For all types of farming there is a need to identify adaptation 
strategies that are effective in achieving climate-robust agricultural landscapes, contributing to 
social, economic and environmental objectives (Verhagen et al., 2009). 
 
Methodology 
A methodology is developed to assess adaptation of agriculture to climatic and socio-economic 
changes at multiple scales (Figure 1), with a first application in the Province of Flevoland, the 
Netherlands. 
  
Drivers Policy
Climate Market …
Impact
Performance, Risk, Resilience
Adaptation 
Food production
Land use
Income
Environment
Productivity
Subsidies Protection …
Agriculture
Global
EU
Country
Region
Farm
Field
Global (WTO, ..)
EU (CAP, ..)
National
Region
Farm 
management
Crop 
management  
Figure 1. Schematic representation of the multi-scale and integrated approach to assess climate 
change adaptation.  
 
We use the SEAMLESS – Integrated Framework (www.seamlessassociation.org), which includes 
a cropping system model, farming system model and a market model (van Ittersum et al., 2008). 
2 pages MAXIMUM (including illustration and references) 
Shorter or longer Abstracts will not be accepted 
The market model provides the European context in terms of changing policies and prices, 
whereas the cropping system model simulates changes in yields over time due to climatic and 
technological changes.  Both models provide input to the farming system model, which is applied 
to determine the effectiveness of adaptation strategies to long-term climatic, market and policy 
changes, to analyse the possible interactions between these changes, and to determine 
possibilities for sustainable farm types in 2050. The modelling framework is complemented with 
a semi-quantitative approach, the Agro-Climatic Calendar (ACC) (Schaap et al., 2009). Based on 
literature review, expert knowledge and stakeholder participation, critical risks related to climate 
extremes are identified for major current and alternative crops. The frequencies of occurrence of 
these climate risks are assessed for the current situation (1990) and two climate scenarios for 
2050, and adaptation strategies are identified. These adaptation strategies are prioritized using 
focus group discussions with farmers, local policy makers and experts. The ACC complements 
the crop model outcomes with respect to timeliness of farm operations, disease pressure and 
losses, yield quality, etc., aspects that that cannot be handled by the crop model. 
 
Results and discussions 
Socio-economic scenarios project that there will be more pressure on agriculture from other 
sectors. This has consequences for the farm structure in the future. In the vicinity of the still 
growing Amsterdam-Almere twin city, rural areas are rapidly changing. Not only because of the 
urban expansion but also because in this new urban setting a different role of agriculture is 
required, for instance providing other services like day recreation or providing habitat for nature. 
In the larger part of Flevoland, farmers will still be mainly production-oriented but they will 
change the structure of the farm; rotation, specialisation and the level of local collaboration 
arrangements between farms are expected to change. 
In Flevoland, the prevailing climate conditions are suitable for agriculture, but changes are 
already observed by farmers. The ACC showed that farmers will be able to cope with a change in 
the frequencies of extreme events for most crops in 2040 and that the production of new crops 
will become feasible. However, risks are projected to increase, such as long dry periods during 
the summer, which may for example reduce wheat yields and affect potato quality. Possible 
adaptation strategies are identified at multiple levels. The effectiveness of such strategies will be 
explored for different farm types and regions, applying the multi-scale SEAMLESS-IF approach, 
and focus group discussions with farmers, experts and policy makers. 
 
References 
 
Meerburg, B.G., et al., 2009. The changing role of agriculture in Dutch society. The Journal of 
Agricultural Science 147, 511-521. 
Reidsma, P., et al., 2010. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European 
agriculture: The importance of farm level responses. European Journal of Agronomy 32: 91-
102. 
Schaap, B.F., et al., 2009. Klimaat en landbouw Noord-Nederland: rapportage van fase 2. Plant 
Research International, Wageningen, The Netherlands. 
Van Ittersum, M.K., et al., 2008. Integrated assessment of agricultural systems - A component-
based framework for the European Union (SEAMLESS). Agricultural Systems 96, 150-165.  
Verhagen, A., et al., 2009. Naar een klimaatbestendiger landbouw in Nederland : quickscan en 
agendering van onderzoek. Plant Research International, Wageningen, The Netherlands. 


Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses.

Integrated assessment of agricultural systems - A componentbased framework for the European Union (SEAMLESS).

Klimaat en landbouw Noord-Nederland: rapportage van fase 2. Plant Research International,

Naar een klimaatbestendiger landbouw in Nederland : quickscan en agendering van onderzoek. Plant Research International,

The changing role of agriculture in Dutch society.

Climate change adaptation in agriculture; the use of multi-scale modelling and stakeholder participation in the Netherlands

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