Distributional inference

The making of statistical inferences in distributional form is conceptionally complicated because the epistemic 'probabilities' assigned are mixtures of fact and fiction. In this respect they are essentially different from 'physical' or 'frequency-theoretic' probabilities. The distributional form is so attractive and useful, however, that it should be pursued. Our approach is In line with Walds theory of statistical decision functions and with Lehmann's books about hypothesis testing and point estimation: loss functions are defined, risk functions are studied, unbiasedness and equivariance restrictions are made, etc. A central theme is that the loss function should be 'proper'. This fundamental concept has been explored by meteorologists, psychometrists, Bayesian statisticians, and others. The paper should be regarded as an attempt to reconcile various schools of statisticians. By accepting what we regard 88 good and useful in the various approaches we are trying to develop a nondogmatic approach

Contestation in the Anthropocene:Climate change and civil disobedience

Despite the widespread public understanding of the dangers posed by climate change, action taken by political leaders to prevent, or even slow climate change has not been nearly enough to prevent significant planetary warming. It is widely acknowledged that more needs to be done to reduce the emission of greenhouse gasses. The Paris Treaty of 2015 commits all the signatories to try and prevent warming of more than 2 degrees centigrade, with 1,5 degrees of warming set as an aspirational goal. Despite this commitment, adequate political action to deal effectively with climate change has not been forthcoming. In response to this lack of action, some individuals and groups have turned to civil disobedience as a way of trying to bring about the change necessary to deal with climate crisis. This is a relatively new development and differs in important ways from previous issues where civil disobedience played an important part in the struggle for justice. What sets climate justice civil disobedience campaigns apart from previous struggles is its transnational character and its intergenerational concern.Making sense of how cross-border movements engaging in civil disobedience could justify their actions raises a host of interesting and under-theorised conceptual and normative questions. The aim of this dissertation is to investigate some of these questions in the context of liberal democratic states. The central argument put forward in this dissertation is that civil disobedience in democratic states is a morally permissible way for individuals to act together in pursuit of climate justice