Predicting The Response Of Gulf Of Mexico Hypoxia To Variations In Mississippi River Nitrogen Load

The effects of nutrient loading from the Mississippi River basin on the areal extent of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico were examined using a novel application of a dissolved oxygen model for a river. The model, driven by river nitrogen load and a simple parameterization of ocean dynamics, reproduced 17 yr of observed hypoxia location and extent, subpycnocline oxygen consumption, and cross-pycnocline oxygen flux. With Monte Carlo analysis, we illustrate through hindcasts back to 1968 that extensive regions of low oxygen were not common before the mid-1970s. The Mississippi River Watershed/Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force set a goal to reduce the 5-yr running average size of the Gulf\u27s hypoxic zone to less than 5,000 km(2) by 2015 and suggested that a 30% reduction from the 1980-1996 average nitrogen load is needed to reach that goal. Here we show that 30% might not be sufficient to reach that goal when year-to-year variability in ocean dynamics is considered

Ensemble Modeling Informs Hypoxia Management In The Northern Gulf Of Mexico

A large region of low-dissolved-oxygen bottom waters (hypoxia) forms nearly every summer in the northern Gulf of Mexico because of nutrient inputs from theMississippi River Basin andwater column stratification. Policymakers developed goals to reduce the area of hypoxic extent because of its ecological, economic, and commercial fisheries impacts. However, the goals remain elusive after 30 y of research and monitoring and 15 y of goal-setting and assessment because there has been little change in river nitrogen concentrations. An intergovernmental Task Force recently extended to 2035 the deadline for achieving the goal of a 5,000-km(2) 5-y average hypoxic zone and set an interim load target of a 20% reduction of the spring nitrogen loading from the Mississippi River by 2025 as part of their adaptive management process. The Task Force has asked modelers to reassess the loading reduction required to achieve the 2035 goal and to determine the effect of the 20% interim load reduction. Here, we address both questions using a probabilistic ensemble of four substantially different hypoxia models. Our results indicate that, under typical weather conditions, a 59% reduction in Mississippi River nitrogen load is required to reduce hypoxic area to 5,000 km(2). The interim goal of a 20% load reduction is expected to produce an 18% reduction in hypoxic area over the long term. However, due to substantial interannual variability, a 25% load reduction is required before there is 95% certainty of observing any hypoxic area reduction between consecutive 5-y assessment periods

How climate controls the flux of nitrogen by the Mississippi River and the development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/110015/1/lno20075220856.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/110015/2/0856a1.pd

Lake Michigan lower food web: Long-term observations and \u3ci\u3eDreissena\u3c/i\u3e impact

Lake Michigan has a long history of non-indigenous introductions that have caused significant ecological change. Here we present a summary of eight papers that document recent changes and the current state of the lower food web of southern Lake Michigan after the establishment of large dreissenid populations. Results are based on long-term data sets collected by federal and academic research and monitoring programs that place recent changes into a historic context. Dramatic and significant changes in the lower food web, such as the loss of the spring diatom bloom, large declines in phytoplankton productivity, and a decline of Mysis populations, were directly or indirectly attributed to the expansion of Dreissena rostriformis bugensis. Total phosphorus concentrations and loadings also have decreased in the last 20 years. Changes in the Lake Michigan ecosystem induced by D. r. bugensis have produced conditions in the offshore pelagic region that are similar to oligotrophic Lake Superior. The future state of the lower food web in southern Lake Michigan is difficult to predict, mainly because population trends of D.r. bugensis in cold, offshore regions are unknown. Hence, monitoring programs designed to collect long-term, consistent data on the lower food web of Lake Michigan are essential

Retrospective Analysis Of Midsummer Hypoxic Area And Volume In The Northern Gulf Of Mexico, 1985-2011

Robust estimates of hypoxic extent (both area and volume) are important for assessing the impacts of low dissolved oxygen on aquatic ecosystems at large spatial scales. Such estimates are also important for calibrating models linking hypoxia to causal factors, such as nutrient loading and stratification, and for informing management decisions. In this study, we develop a rigorous geostatistical modeling framework to estimate the hypoxic extent in the northern Gulf of Mexico from data collected during midsummer, quasi-synoptic monitoring cruises (1985-2011). Instead of a traditional interpolation-based approach, we use a simulation-based approach that yields more robust extent estimates and quantified uncertainty. The modeling framework also makes use of covariate information (i.e., trend variables such as depth and spatial position), to reduce estimation uncertainty. Furthermore, adjustments are made to account for observational bias resulting from the use of different sampling instruments in different years. Our results suggest an increasing trend in hypoxic layer thickness (p = 0.05) from 1985 to 2011, but less than significant increases in volume (p = 0.12) and area (p = 0.42). The uncertainties in the extent estimates vary with sampling network coverage and instrument type, and generally decrease over the study period

Mechanisms of Surviving Burial: Dune Grass Interspecific Differences Drive Resource Allocation After Sand Deposition

Sand dunes are important geomorphic formations of coastal ecosystems that are critical in protecting human populations that live in coastal areas. Dune formation is driven by ecomorphodynamic interactions between vegetation and sediment deposition. While there has been extensive research on responses of dune grasses to sand burial, there is a knowledge gap in understanding mechanisms of acclimation between similar, coexistent, dune-building grasses such as Ammophila breviligulata (C3), Spartina patens (C4), and Uniola paniculata (C4). Our goal was to determine how physiological mechanisms of acclimation to sand burial vary between species. We hypothesize that (1) in the presence of burial, resource allocation will be predicated on photosynthetic pathway and that we will be able to characterize the C3 species as a root allocator and the C4 species as leaf allocators. We also hypothesize that (2) despite similarities between these species in habitat, growth form, and life history, leaf, root, and whole plant traits will vary between species when burial is not present. Furthermore, when burial is present, the existing variability in physiological strategy will drive species-specific mechanisms of survival. In a greenhouse experiment, we exposed three dune grass species to different burial treatments: 0 cm (control) and a one-time 25-cm burial to mimic sediment deposition during a storm. At the conclusion of our study, we collected a suite of physiological and morphological functional traits. Results showed that Ammophila decreased allocation to aboveground biomass to maintain root biomass, preserving photosynthesis by allocating nitrogen (N) into light-exposed leaves. Conversely, Uniola and Spartina decreased allocation to belowground production to increase elongation and maintain aboveground biomass. Interestingly, we found that species were functionally distinct when burial was absent; however, all species became more similar when treated with burial. In the presence of burial, species utilized functional traits of rapid growth strategy, although mechanisms of change were interspecifically variable

Corrigendum to “Recent changes in primary production and phytoplankton in the offshore region of southeastern Lake Michigan” [J. Great Lakes Res. 36 (Supplement 3) (2010) 20–29]

The authors regret that there is an error on the labels of two figures that were published in the paper referenced above. For Figs. 5b, c, and d and 7b and c the y-axes have the wrong labels. The following are the correct y-axis labels: Fig. 5b — the y-axis should range from 0 to 5, Fig. 5c — the y-axis should range from 0 to 2, Fig. 5d — the y-axis label should range from 0 to 3, Fig. 7b — the y-axis should range from 0 to 40, and for Fig. 7c — the y-axis should range from 0 to 50

Corrigendum to “Recent changes in primary production and phytoplankton in the offshore region of southeastern Lake Michigan” [J. Great Lakes Res. 36 (Supplement 3) (2010) 20–29]

The authors regret that there is an error on the labels of two figures that were published in the paper referenced above. For Figs. 5b, c, and d and 7b and c the y-axes have the wrong labels. The following are the correct y-axis labels: Fig. 5b — the y-axis should range from 0 to 5, Fig. 5c — the y-axis should range from 0 to 2, Fig. 5d — the y-axis label should range from 0 to 3, Fig. 7b — the y-axis should range from 0 to 40, and for Fig. 7c — the y-axis should range from 0 to 50

Ensemble modeling informs hypoxia management in the northern Gulf of Mexico

A large region of low-dissolved-oxygen bottom waters (hypoxia) forms nearly every summer in the northern Gulf of Mexico because of nutrient inputs from theMississippi River Basin andwater column stratification. Policymakers developed goals to reduce the area of hypoxic extent because of its ecological, economic, and commercial fisheries impacts. However, the goals remain elusive after 30 y of research and monitoring and 15 y of goal-setting and assessment because there has been little change in river nitrogen concentrations. An intergovernmental Task Force recently extended to 2035 the deadline for achieving the goal of a 5,000-km(2) 5-y average hypoxic zone and set an interim load target of a 20% reduction of the spring nitrogen loading from the Mississippi River by 2025 as part of their adaptive management process. The Task Force has asked modelers to reassess the loading reduction required to achieve the 2035 goal and to determine the effect of the 20% interim load reduction. Here, we address both questions using a probabilistic ensemble of four substantially different hypoxia models. Our results indicate that, under typical weather conditions, a 59% reduction in Mississippi River nitrogen load is required to reduce hypoxic area to 5,000 km(2). The interim goal of a 20% load reduction is expected to produce an 18% reduction in hypoxic area over the long term. However, due to substantial interannual variability, a 25% load reduction is required before there is 95% certainty of observing any hypoxic area reduction between consecutive 5-y assessment periods