The wavelength dependence of polarization in NGC 2023

NGC 2023 is a bright reflection nebula illuminated by the central star HD37903. At 2 microns the nebula is seen solely by reflected light from the central star but in the NIR there is excess radiation that is supposed to arise from thermal emission from a population of small grains (Sellgren, 1984). The unexpectedly high surface brightness at R and I wavelengths has led to the suggestion that even at these wavelengths there is a significant contribution from this thermal emission process (Witt, Schild, and Kraiman, 1984). If the nebula is seen by reflected starlight then this radiation will be linearly polarized. The level of polarization depends on the scattering geometry, grain size distribution, etc., and is typically 20 to 40 percent for nebulae such as NGC 1999 which is morphologically similar to NGC 2023. If, in any waveband, there is a contribution of radiation from emission processes this radiation will be unpolarized and will serve to dilute the scattered radiation to give a lower level of observed polarization. A study of the wavelength dependence of polarization in nebulae in which there may be thermal emission from grains will indicate the contribution from this process to the total luminosity. Polarization maps were produced in BVRI wavebands for the NGC 2023 nebulosity which confirm that at all wavelengths it is a reflection nebula illuminated by a central star. The wavelength dependence of polarization at representative points in the nebula and in a scatter plot of polarization in V and I wavebands at all points at which measurements are given. Results indicate that throughout the nebula there is a general trend for the level of polarization to increase with wavelength and that maximum levels of polarization occur at the longest wavelengths. No evidence is seen in the data for any significant contribution from the thermal emission from grains in the BVRI luminosity of NGC 2023

Optical Spectropolarimetry and Asphericity of Type Ic SN 2007gr

We present optical spectropolarimetric observations of Type Ic supernova (SN) 2007gr with Subaru telescope at 21 days after the maximum brightness (~37 days after the explosion). Non-zero polarization as high as ~3% is observed at the absorption feature of Ca II IR triplet. The polarization of the continuum light is ~0.5% if we estimate the interstellar polarization (ISP) component assuming that the continuum polarization has a single polarization angle. This suggests that the axis ratio of the SN photosphere projected to the sky is different from unity by ~10%. The polarization angle at the Ca II absorption is almost aligned to that of the continuum light. These features may be understood by the model where a bipolar explosion with an oblate photosphere is viewed from the slightly off-axis direction and explosively synthesized Ca near the polar region obscures the light originated around the minor axis of the SN photosphere. Given the uncertainty of the ISP, however, the polarization data could also be interpreted by the model with an almost spherically symmetric photosphere and a clumpy Ca II distribution.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Extreme Value GARCH modelling with Bayesian Inference

RePEC Working Paper Series No: 05/2009Extreme value theory is widely used financial applications such as risk analysis, forecasting and pricing models. One of the major difficulties in the applications to finance and economics is that the assumption of independence of time series observations is generally not satisfied, so that the dependent extremes may not necessarily be in the domain of attraction of the classical generalised extreme value distribution. This study examines a conditional extreme value distribution with the added specification that the extreme values (maxima or minima) follows a conditional autoregressive heteroscedasticity process. The dependence has been modelled by allowing the location and scale parameters of the extreme distribution to vary with time. The resulting combined model, GEV-GARCH, is developed by implementing the GARCH volatility mechanism in these extreme value model parameters. Bayesian inference is used for the estimation of parameters and posterior inference is available through the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The model is firstly applied to relevant simulated data to verify model stability and reliability of the parameter estimation method. Then real stock returns are used to consider evidence for the appropriate application of the model. A comparison is made between the GEV-GARCH and traditional GARCH models. Both the GEV-GARCH and GARCH show similarity in the resulting conditional volatility estimates, however the GEV-GARCH model differs from GARCH in that it can capture and explain extreme quantiles better than the GARCH model because of more reliable extrapolation of the tail behaviour

Three quasars from a survey of strong 25-µm emitters

We have carried out a spectroscopic survey of 750 sources that are strong 25-μm emitters from the IRAS Faint Source data base. Many of these sources are previously unknown active galactic nuclei including new IRAS quasars, three of which we describe here: F21382−2659, Z06367−6845 and Z05558−5008. They are all radio and X-ray quiet, and compared to the known IRAS quasars they have similar 25-μm luminosities, L(25 μm), but lower values of L(25 μm)/L(B). Their F(25 μm)/F(60 μm) IRAS colours lie in the range 0.33 to 1.08, indicating the presence of relatively warm dust, presumably in a dusty torus surrounding the central source, and with temperatures similar to those of the known IRAS quasars. The quasar with the warmest dust, F21382−2659, exhibits broad (full width at half-maximum ~4000 km s^(−1)) asymmetric Balmer lines with Hγ having an opposite asymmetry to the other broad lines; also Hβ (only) is double-peaked. Fe ii is very weak in F21382−2659 but strong in the other two quasars, and the anticorrelation between Fe ii and [O iii] holds as anticipated. Two of the quasars are unpolarized: although F21382−2659 is optically polarized (2.1 per cent at 4950 Å), we argue that this provides little insight into the orientation of its dust torus relative to the line of sight

Evidence for Extremely High Dust Polarization Efficiency in NGC 3184

Recent studies have found the Type II-plateau supernova (SN) 1999gi to be highly polarized (p_max = 5.8%, where p_max is the highest degree of polarization measured in the optical bandpass; Leonard & Filippenko 2001) and minimally reddened (E[B-V] = 0.21 +/- 0.09 mag; Leonard et al. 2002). From multiple lines of evidence, including the convincing fit of a ``Serkowski'' interstellar polarization (ISP) curve to the continuum polarization shape, we conclude that the bulk of the observed polarization is likely due to dust along the line of sight (l-o-s), and is not intrinsic to SN 1999gi. We present new spectropolarimetric observations of four distant Galactic stars close to the l-o-s to SN 1999gi (two are within 0.02 degrees), and find that all are null to within 0.2%, effectively eliminating Galactic dust as the cause of the high polarization. The high ISP coupled with the low reddening implies an extraordinarily high polarization efficiency for the dust along this l-o-s in NGC 3184: ISP / E(B-V) = 31^{+22}_{-9} % mag^{-1}. This is inconsistent with the empirical Galactic limit (ISP / E[B-V] < 9% mag^{-1}), and represents the highest polarization efficiency yet confirmed for a single sight line in either the Milky Way or an external galaxy.Comment: 27 pages, accepted for publication by the Astronomical Journa

Non-stationarity in peaks-over-threshold river flows:a regional random effects model

Under the influence of local- and large-scale climatological processes, extreme river flow events often show long-term trends, seasonality, inter-year variability and other characteristics of temporal non-stationarity. Properly accounting for this non-stationarity is vital for making accurate predictions of future floods. In this paper, a regional model based on the generalised Pareto distribution is developed for peaks-over-threshold river flow data sets when the event sizes are non-stationary. If observations are non-stationary and covariates are available then extreme value (semi-)parametric regression models may be used. Unfortunately the necessary covariates are rarely observed and, if they are, it is often not clear which process, or combination of processes, to include in the model. Within the statistical literature, latent process (or random effects) models are often used in such scenarios. We develop a regional time-varying random effects model which allows identification of temporal non-stationarity in event sizes by pooling information across all sites in a spatially homogeneous region. The proposed model, which is an instance of a Bayesian hierarchical model, can be used to predict both unconditional extreme events such as the m-year maximum, as well as extreme events that condition on being in a given year. The estimated random effects may also tell us about likely candidates for the climatological processes which cause non-stationarity in the flood process. The model is applied to UK flood data from 817 stations spread across 81 hydrometric regions

Detection of Extended Polarized Ultraviolet Radiation from the z = 1.82 Radio Galaxy 3C 256

We have detected spatially extended linear polarized UV emission from the high-redshift radio galaxy 3C~256 ($z=1.82$). A spatially integrated ($7.8''$ diameter aperture) measurement of the degree of polarization of the $V-$band (rest frame 0.19 $\mu$m) emission yields a value of 16.4\% ($\pm 2.2$\%) with a position angle of $42{}\rlap{\rm .}^\circ 4$ ($\pm 3{}\rlap{\rm .}^\circ 9$), orthogonal to the position angle on the sky of the major axis of the extended emission. The peak emission measured with a $3.6''$ diameter circular aperture is 11.7\% ($\pm 1.5$\%) polarized with a position angle of $42{}\rlap{\rm .}^\circ 4$ ($\pm 3{}\rlap{\rm .}^\circ 6$). An image of the polarized flux is presented, clearly displaying that the polarized flux is extended and present over the entire extent of the object. While it has been suggested that the UV continuum of 3C~256 might be due to star formation (Elston 1988) or a protogalaxy (Eisenhardt \& Dickinson 1993) based on its extremely blue spectral energy distribution and similar morphology at UV and visible wavelengths, we are unable to reconcile the observed high degree of polarization with such a model. While the detection of polarized emission from HZRGs has been shown to be a common phenomena, 3C~256 is only the third object for which a measurement of the extended polarized UV emission has been presented. These data lend additional support to the suggestion first made by di Serego Alighieri and collaborators that the ``alignment effect'', the tendency for the extended UV continuum radiation and line emission from HZRGs to be aligned with the major axis of the extended radio emission, is in large part due to scattering of anisotropic nuclear emission.Comment: 11 pages, LaTeX (aaspp style) file. Figure available by request to [email protected]

Spitzer detections of new dust components in the outflow of the Red Rectangle

We present Spitzer high spectral resolution IRS spectroscopy of three positions in the carbon-rich outflow of post-AGB star HD 44179, better known as the Red Rectangle. Surprisingly, the spectra show some strong unknown mid-infrared resonances, in the 13-20 micron range. The shape and position of these resonances varies with position in the nebula, and are not correlated with the PAH features. We conclude these features are due to oxygen-rich minerals, located in a region which is believed to be predominantly carbon-rich. We provide possible explanations for the presence of oxygen-rich dust in the carbon-rich outflows. Simple Mg-Fe-oxides are suggested as carriers of these unidentified features.Comment: accepted by ApJL; 5 pages; 4 figure

Medical encounters at community-based physical activity events (parkrun) in the UK

Objective: To determine the incidence, clinical correlates and exposure risk of medical encounters during community-based physical activity events in the UK. // Methods: An analysis of medical data from weekly, community-based physical activity events (parkrun) at 702 UK locations over a 6-year period (29 476 294 participations between 2014 and 2019) was conducted in order to define the incidence and clinical correlates of serious life-threatening, non-life-threatening and fatal medical encounters. // Results: 84 serious life-threatening encounters (overall incidence rate=0.26/100 000 participations) occurred including 18 fatalities (0.056/100 000 participations). Statistical modelling revealed that the probabilities of serious life-threatening encounters were exceptionally low, however, male sex, increasing age, slower personal best parkrun time and less prior running engagement/experience (average number of runs per year and number of years as a parkrun participant) were associated with increased probability of serious life-threatening encounters. These were largely accounted for by cardiac arrest (48/84, 57%) and acute coronary syndromes (20/84, 24%). Non-life-threatening medical encounters were mainly attributed to tripping or falling, with a reported incidence of 39.2/100 000 participations. // Conclusions: Serious life-threatening and fatal medical encounters associated with parkrun participation are extremely rare. In the context of a global public health crisis due to inactivity, this finding underscores the safety and corollary public health value of community running/walking events as a strategy to promote physical activity

The Magnetic Field Geometry in M82 and Cen A

Imaging polarimetry at 1.65 and 2.2 $\mu$m is presented for the classic starburst galaxy M82 and the advanced merger system Cen A. Polarimetry at near IR wavelengths allows the magnetic field geometry in galaxies to be probed much deeper into dusty regions than optical polarimetry. In M82, the magnetic field throughout the nucleus has a polar geometry, presumably due to the massive vertical flow that is a result of the intense star formation there. Fully two thirds of the line of sight dust through to the center of M82 contains a vertical magnetic field. In Cen A, the prominent dust lane shows a normal planar field geometry. There is no indication of significant disturbance in the field geometry in the dust lane and the polarization strength is near normal for the amount of extinction. Either the magnetic field geometry was well maintained during the merger, or it reestablished itself very easily