Predicting clinical diagnosis in Huntington's disease: An imaging polymarker.

OBJECTIVE: Huntington's disease (HD) gene carriers can be identified before clinical diagnosis; however, statistical models for predicting when overt motor symptoms will manifest are too imprecise to be useful at the level of the individual. Perfecting this prediction is integral to the search for disease modifying therapies. This study aimed to identify an imaging marker capable of reliably predicting real-life clinical diagnosis in HD. METHOD: A multivariate machine learning approach was applied to resting-state and structural magnetic resonance imaging scans from 19 premanifest HD gene carriers (preHD, 8 of whom developed clinical disease in the 5 years postscanning) and 21 healthy controls. A classification model was developed using cross-group comparisons between preHD and controls, and within the preHD group in relation to "estimated" and "actual" proximity to disease onset. Imaging measures were modeled individually, and combined, and permutation modeling robustly tested classification accuracy. RESULTS: Classification performance for preHDs versus controls was greatest when all measures were combined. The resulting polymarker predicted converters with high accuracy, including those who were not expected to manifest in that time scale based on the currently adopted statistical models. INTERPRETATION: We propose that a holistic multivariate machine learning treatment of brain abnormalities in the premanifest phase can be used to accurately identify those patients within 5 years of developing motor features of HD, with implications for prognostication and preclinical trials. Ann Neurol 2018;83:532-543.SLM is funded by a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Translational Research Collaboration for Rare Diseases fellowship. This research has been funded/supported by the National Institute for Health Research Rare Diseases Translational Research Collaboration (NIHR RD-TRC). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. RAB is funded by the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre and the Cambridge University NHS Foundation Trust. RED is employed on an EC Marie-Curie CIG, awarded to AH, SJT, EJ and RS receive funding from a Wellcome Collaborative Award (200181/Z/15/Z

Inconsistent emotion recognition deficits across stimulus modalities in Huntington's disease

This study has been supported by the European Union - PADDINGTON project, Contract no. HEALTH-F2-2010-261358. SJT acknowledges support of the National Institute for Health Research through the Dementias and Neurodegenerative Research Network, DeNDRoN.Background: Recognition of negative emotions is impaired in Huntington's Disease (HD). It is unclear whether these emotion-specific problems are driven by dissociable cognitive deficits, emotion complexity, test cue difficulty, or visuoperceptual impairments. This study set out to further characterise emotion recognition in HD by comparing patterns of deficits across stimulus modalities; notably including for the first time in HD, the more ecologically and clinically relevant modality of film clips portraying dynamic facial expressions. Methods: Fifteen early HD and 17 control participants were tested on emotion recognition from static facial photographs, non-verbal vocal expressions and one second dynamic film clips, all depicting different emotions. Results: Statistically significant evidence of impairment of anger, disgust and fear recognition was seen in HD participants compared with healthy controls across multiple stimulus modalities. The extent of the impairment, as measured by the difference in the number of errors made between HD participants and controls, differed according to the combination of emotion and modality (p=0.013, interaction test). The largest between-group difference was seen in the recognition of anger from film clips. Conclusions: Consistent with previous reports, anger, disgust and fear were the most poorly recognised emotions by the HD group. This impairment did not appear to be due to task demands or expression complexity as the pattern of between-group differences did not correspond to the pattern of errors made by either group; implicating emotion-specific cognitive processing pathology. There was however evidence that the extent of emotion recognition deficits significantly differed between stimulus modalities. The implications in terms of designing future tests of emotion recognition and care giving are discussed.PostprintPeer reviewe

Intellectual enrichment and genetic modifiers of cognition and brain volume in Huntington’s disease

An important step towards the development of treatments for cognitive impairment in ageing and neurodegenerative diseases is to identify genetic and environmental modifiers of cognitive function and understand the mechanism by which they exert an effect. In Huntington’s disease, the most common autosomal dominant dementia, a small number of studies have identified intellectual enrichment, i.e. a cognitively stimulating lifestyle, and genetic polymorphisms as potential modifiers of cognitive function. The aim of our study was to further investigate the relationship and interaction between genetic factors and intellectual enrichment on cognitive function and brain atrophy in Huntington’s disease. For this purpose, we analysed data from Track-HD, a multi-centre longitudinal study in Huntington’s disease gene-carriers, and focused on the role of intellectual enrichment (estimated at baseline) and the genes FAN1, MSH3, BDNF, COMT and MAPT in predicting cognitive decline and brain atrophy. We found that carrying the 3a allele in the MSH3 gene had a positive effect on global cognitive function and brain atrophy in multiple cortical regions, such that 3a allele carriers had a slower rate of cognitive decline and atrophy compared to non-carriers, in agreement with its role in somatic instability. No other genetic predictor had a significant effect on cognitive function and the effect of MSH3 was independent of intellectual enrichment. Intellectual enrichment also had a positive effect on cognitive function; participants with higher intellectual enrichment, ie. those who were better educated, had higher verbal intelligence and performed an occupation that was intellectually engaging, had better cognitive function overall, in agreement with previous studies in Huntington’s disease and other dementias. We also found that intellectual enrichment interacted with the BDNF gene, such that the positive effect of intellectual enrichment was greater in Met66 allele carriers than non-carriers. A similar relationship was also identified for changes in whole brain and caudate volume; the positive effect of intellectual enrichment was greater for Met66 allele carriers, rather than non-carriers. In summary, our study provides additional evidence for the beneficial role of intellectual enrichment and carrying the 3a allele in MSH3 in cognitive function in Huntington’s disease and their effect on brain structure

Learning Subject-Specific Directed Acyclic Graphs With Mixed Effects Structural Equation Models From Observational Data

The identification of causal relationships between random variables from large-scale observational data using directed acyclic graphs (DAG) is highly challenging. We propose a new mixed-effects structural equation model (mSEM) framework to estimate subject-specific DAGs, where we represent joint distribution of random variables in the DAG as a set of structural causal equations with mixed effects. The directed edges between nodes depend on observed exogenous covariates on each of the individual and unobserved latent variables. The strength of the connection is decomposed into a fixed-effect term representing the average causal effect given the covariates and a random effect term representing the latent causal effect due to unobserved pathways. The advantage of such decomposition is to capture essential asymmetric structural information and heterogeneity between DAGs in order to allow for the identification of causal structure with observational data. In addition, by pooling information across subject-specific DAGs, we can identify causal structure with a high probability and estimate subject-specific networks with a high precision. We propose a penalized likelihood-based approach to handle multi-dimensionality of the DAG model. We propose a fast, iterative computational algorithm, DAG-MM, to estimate parameters in mSEM and achieve desirable sparsity by hard-thresholding the edges. We theoretically prove the identifiability of mSEM. Using simulations and an application to protein signaling data, we show substantially improved performances when compared to existing methods and consistent results with a network estimated from interventional data. Lastly, we identify gray matter atrophy networks in regions of brain from patients with Huntington’s disease and corroborate our findings using white matter connectivity data collected from an independent study

Longitudinal evaluation of proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy metabolites as biomarkers in Huntington’s disease

Proton Magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) is a non-invasive method of exploring cerebral metabolism. In Huntington’s disease, altered 1H-MRS-determined concentrations of several metabolites have been described; however, findings are often discrepant and longitudinal studies are lacking. 1H-MRS metabolites may represent a source of biomarkers, thus their relationship with established markers of disease progression require further exploration to assess prognostic value and elucidate pathways associated with neurodegeneration. In a prospective single-site controlled cohort study with standardised collection of CSF, blood, phenotypic and volumetric imaging data, we used 3T 1H-MRS in conjunction with the linear combination of model spectra method to quantify seven metabolites (total n-acetylaspartate, total creatine, total choline, myo-inositol, GABA, glutamate and glutathione) in the putamen of 59 participants at baseline (15 healthy controls, 15 premanifest and 29 manifest Huntington’s disease gene expansion carriers) and 48 participants at 2-year follow-up (12 healthy controls, 13 premanifest and 23 manifest Huntington’s disease gene expansion carriers). Intergroup differences in concentration and associations with CSF and plasma biomarkers; including neurofilament light chain and mutant Huntingtin, volumetric imaging markers; namely whole brain, caudate, grey matter and white matter volume, measures of disease progression and cognitive decline, were assessed cross-sectionally using generalized linear models and partial correlation. We report no significant groupwise differences in metabolite concentration at baseline but found total creatine and total n-acetylaspartate to be significantly reduced in manifest compared with premanifest participants at follow-up. Additionally, total creatine and myo-inositol displayed significant associations with reduced caudate volume across both time points in gene expansion carriers. Although relationships were observed between 1H-MRS metabolites and biofluid measures, these were not consistent across time points. To further assess prognostic value, we examined whether baseline 1H-MRS values, or rate of change, predicted subsequent change in established measures of disease progression. Several associations were found but were inconsistent across known indicators of disease progression. Finally, longitudinal mixed effects models revealed glutamine + glutamate to display a slow linear decrease over time in gene expansion carriers. Altogether, our findings show some evidence of reduced total n-acetylaspartate and total creatine as the disease progresses and cross-sectional associations between select metabolites, namely total creatine and myo-inositol, and markers of disease progression, potentially highlighting the proposed roles of neuroinflammation and metabolic dysfunction in disease pathogenesis. However, the absence of consistent group differences, inconsistency between baseline and follow-up, and lack of clear longitudinal change suggests that 1H-MRS metabolites have limited potential as Huntington’s disease biomarkers

Test-Retest Reliability of Diffusion Tensor Imaging in Huntington's Disease.

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) has shown microstructural abnormalities in patients with Huntington's Disease (HD) and work is underway to characterise how these abnormalities change with disease progression. Using methods that will be applied in longitudinal research, we sought to establish the reliability of DTI in early HD patients and controls. Test-retest reliability, quantified using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), was assessed using region-of-interest (ROI)-based white matter atlas and voxelwise approaches on repeat scan data from 22 participants (10 early HD, 12 controls). T1 data was used to generate further ROIs for analysis in a reduced sample of 18 participants. The results suggest that fractional anisotropy (FA) and other diffusivity metrics are generally highly reliable, with ICCs indicating considerably lower within-subject compared to between-subject variability in both HD patients and controls. Where ICC was low, particularly for the diffusivity measures in the caudate and putamen, this was partly influenced by outliers. The analysis suggests that the specific DTI methods used here are appropriate for cross-sectional research in HD, and give confidence that they can also be applied longitudinally, although this requires further investigation. An important caveat for DTI studies is that test-retest reliability may not be evenly distributed throughout the brain whereby highly anisotropic white matter regions tended to show lower relative within-subject variability than other white or grey matter regions

Evaluation of multi-modal, multi-site neuroimaging measures in Huntington's disease: Baseline results from the PADDINGTON study.

BACKGROUND: Macro- and micro-structural neuroimaging measures provide valuable information on the pathophysiology of Huntington's disease (HD) and are proposed as biomarkers. Despite theoretical advantages of microstructural measures in terms of sensitivity to pathology, there is little evidence directly comparing the two. METHODS: 40 controls and 61 early HD subjects underwent 3 T MRI (T1- and diffusion-weighted), as part of the PADDINGTON study. Macrostructural volumetrics were obtained for the whole brain, caudate, putamen, corpus callosum (CC) and ventricles. Microstructural diffusion metrics of fractional anisotropy (FA), mean-, radial- and axial-diffusivity (MD, RD, AD) were computed for white matter (WM), CC, caudate and putamen. Group differences were examined adjusting for age, gender and site. A formal comparison of effect sizes determined which modality and metrics provided a statistically significant advantage over others. RESULTS: Macrostructural measures showed decreased regional and global volume in HD (p < 0.001); except the ventricles which were enlarged (p < 0.01). In HD, FA was increased in the deep grey-matter structures (p < 0.001), and decreased in the WM (CC, p = 0.035; WM, p = 0.053); diffusivity metrics (MD, RD, AD) were increased for all brain regions (p < 0.001). The largest effect sizes were for putamen volume, caudate volume and putamen diffusivity (AD, RD and MD); each was significantly larger than those for all other metrics (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The highest performing macro- and micro-structural metrics had similar sensitivity to HD pathology quantified via effect sizes. Region-of-interest may be more important than imaging modality, with deep grey-matter regions outperforming the CC and global measures, for both volume and diffusivity. FA appears to be relatively insensitive to disease effects

The temporal event-based model: Learning event timelines in progressive diseases

Timelines of events, such as symptom appearance or a change in biomarker value, provide powerful signatures that characterise progressive diseases. Understanding and predicting the timing of events is important for clinical trials targeting individuals early in the disease course when putative treatments are likely to have the strongest effect. However, previous models of disease progression cannot estimate the time between events and provide only an ordering in which they change. Here, we introduce the temporal event-based model (TEBM), a new probabilistic model for inferring timelines of biomarker events from sparse and irregularly sampled datasets. We demonstrate the power of the TEBM in two neurodegenerative conditions: Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Huntington's disease (HD). In both diseases, the TEBM not only recapitulates current understanding of event orderings but also provides unique new ranges of timescales between consecutive events. We reproduce and validate these findings using external datasets in both diseases. We also demonstrate that the TEBM improves over current models; provides unique stratification capabilities; and enriches simulated clinical trials to achieve a power of 80% with less than half the cohort size compared with random selection. The application of the TEBM naturally extends to a wide range of progressive conditions