The role of technology, organisation, and demand in growth and income distribution

The paper proposes a model that explains cross-country growth divergences over time for different aspects of structural change. The model formalises the links between production technology, firm organisation (functional composition of employment) on the supply side and the endogenous evolution of income distribution and consumption patterns on the demand side. Wage distribution is the main channel between the organisation of firms and consumption patterns, and firm selection is the main trigger of investment in new capital, productivity gains and cumulative growth. The model is able to reproduce empirical stylised facts on growth and income inequality associated with different stages of growth. We use VARs to estimate the causal relations between the three aspects of structural change. We then analyse the effect of the parameters that define the structure of an economy – and the way in which this unfolds through time – on growth and income distribution via numerical simulation. Product variety, differences in consumption preferences, organisational complexity and production technology determine whether the economy experiences a take-off or a stagnating growth, and the associated distribution of income

Structural Change of Production and Consumption: A Micro to Macro Approach to Economic Growth and Income Distribution

The paper aims to analyse the effect of initial structural conditions in the organisation and composition of production and in demand patterns, via changes in wages distribution, as affecting economic growth and income inequality. We develop an evolutionary model with agent-based micro-foundations and analyse the link between structural change and growth taking into account (i) firm-level organisational differences and technological changes, (ii) their impact on the structure of earnings and income of workers-consumers, and (iii) the consequent changes in consumption. The model articulates the links between production and organisation structures on the supply side, and the endogenous evolution of income distribution on the demand side. Simplied scenarios are identified via numerical simulations, in which patterns of aggregate growth are obtained as an emerging property of different structures of firms' organisation and production, functional composition of employment, income distribution and patterns of consumption.Structural Change, Consumption, Earnings Distribution, Growth

Structural changes and growth regimes

We study the relation between income distribution and growth mediated by structural changes on the demand and supply side. Using results from a multi-sector growth model we compare two growth regimes which differ in three aspects: labour relations, competition, and consumption patterns. Regime one, similar to Fordism, is assumed to be relatively less unequal, more competitive, and with more homogeneous consumers than regime two, similar to post-Fordism. We analyse the parameters that define the two regimes to study the role of exogenous institutional features and endogenous structural features of the economy on output growth, income distribution, and their relation. We find that regime one exhibits significantly lower inequality, higher output and productivity, and lower unemployment than regime two. Both institutional and structural features explain these difference. Most prominent among the first group are wage differences, accompanied by capital income, and the distribution of bonuses to top managers. The concentration of production magnifies the effect of wage differences on income distribution and output growth, suggesting the relevance of the norms of competition. Among structural determinants, particularly relevant are firm organisation and the structure of demand. The way in which final demand distributes across sectors influences competition and overall market concentration. Particularly relevant is the demand of the least wealthy classes. We also show how institutional and structural determinants are tightly linked. Based on this link we conclude by discussing a number of policy implications emerging from our model

Measuring OC in Latin America. A methodology for developing and validating scores and composite indicators for measuring OC at national and subnational level.

The aim of this working paper is to develop and test a methodology for measuring Organized Crime in selected countries of the Latin American region. This study is one of the first systematic attempts to obtain reliable and comparable measurements of OC presence and threats in that region. The outcomes will provide a more comprehensive view on how to measure and analyze OC today in Latin America, taking the regional specificities of the phenomenon into account. Moreover, creating a valid measurement of OC has important policy implications, since valid indicators may improve the effectiveness of government and enforcement action

Le Gang Giovanili in Italia

Questo studio nasce dalla collaborazione fra il centro di ricerca interuniversitario sulla criminalità transnazionale Transcrime dell’Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna e Università degli Studi di Perugia, il Servizio Analisi Criminale del Dipartimento della Pubblica Sicurezza del Ministero dell’Interno e il Dipartimento per la Giustizia Minorile e di Comunità del Ministero della Giustizia, con particolare riferimento agli Uffici di Servizio Sociale per i Minorenni. Il rapporto inizia con la definizione di gang giovanile utilizzata in questa ricerca e le modalità con le quali è stata condotta la raccolta delle informazioni. In seguito, fornisce una panoramica dei risultati ottenuti e una descrizione dei vari tipi di gang giovanili individuati con dei brevi approfondimenti su alcuni casi rilevanti. Sono infine riassunte delle riflessioni sui potenziali fattori alla base di questo fenomeno e alcune proposte di intervento per la sua prevenzione e contrasto

The Role of Attitudes Toward Medication and Treatment Adherence in the Clinical Response to LAIs: Findings From the STAR Network Depot Study

Background: Long-acting injectable (LAI) antipsychotics are efficacious in managing psychotic symptoms in people affected by severe mental disorders, such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. The present study aimed to investigate whether attitude toward treatment and treatment adherence represent predictors of symptoms changes over time. Methods: The STAR Network \u201cDepot Study\u201d was a naturalistic, multicenter, observational, prospective study that enrolled people initiating a LAI without restrictions on diagnosis, clinical severity or setting. Participants from 32 Italian centers were assessed at three time points: baseline, 6-month, and 12-month follow-up. Psychopathological symptoms, attitude toward medication and treatment adherence were measured using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), the Drug Attitude Inventory (DAI-10) and the Kemp's 7-point scale, respectively. Linear mixed-effects models were used to evaluate whether attitude toward medication and treatment adherence independently predicted symptoms changes over time. Analyses were conducted on the overall sample and then stratified according to the baseline severity (BPRS < 41 or BPRS 65 41). Results: We included 461 participants of which 276 were males. The majority of participants had received a primary diagnosis of a schizophrenia spectrum disorder (71.80%) and initiated a treatment with a second-generation LAI (69.63%). BPRS, DAI-10, and Kemp's scale scores improved over time. Six linear regressions\u2014conducted considering the outcome and predictors at baseline, 6-month, and 12-month follow-up independently\u2014showed that both DAI-10 and Kemp's scale negatively associated with BPRS scores at the three considered time points. Linear mixed-effects models conducted on the overall sample did not show any significant association between attitude toward medication or treatment adherence and changes in psychiatric symptoms over time. However, after stratification according to baseline severity, we found that both DAI-10 and Kemp's scale negatively predicted changes in BPRS scores at 12-month follow-up regardless of baseline severity. The association at 6-month follow-up was confirmed only in the group with moderate or severe symptoms at baseline. Conclusion: Our findings corroborate the importance of improving the quality of relationship between clinicians and patients. Shared decision making and thorough discussions about benefits and side effects may improve the outcome in patients with severe mental disorders

Extortion and Organized Crime

This chapter deals with extortion, racketeering, and organized crime in Europe. The overall argument is that market opportunities for extortion driven by lack of trust in market dynamics and variation in the characteristics of organized criminal groups may give rise to two different types of extortion and racketeering: systemic and casual

Choosing and Combining the Right Trees From an Ensemble

In this paper, we introduce a novel ensemble approach in the spirit of model clustering and combination. After generating a sample of bootstrap-based trees and identified their main clusters, the corresponding medoid trees are next combined by growing a tree on trees, namely a recursive partition using as covariates the predictions of the medoid trees. The resulting Final Classification Tree is then expected to outperform single trees by construction, being realized with the objective to maximize the forecasting power of single trees. Using data on 472 defaults and 471 non-defaults for non-financial corporates in Italy during the period 2007-13, the research experiment proves that our approach significantly outperforms all the representative trees also ranking among the best 1% distribution of the bootstrap-based trees in terms of performance diagnostics

Structural transformation in production and consumption: long-run growth and income disparities

The paper provides a theoretical explanation for the dramatic differences observed in the income growth and distribution across countries and within countries through time. The model we propose provides micro foundations for linking structural change to economic growth. The model formalizes the links between production technology, firm organization, and functional composition of employment on the supply side and the endogenous evolution of income distribution and consumption patterns on the demand side. Wage distribution is the main channel between the organization of firms and the consumption patterns. Firm selectionis the main trigger of capital investment, productivity increase, and cumulative causation growth through demand. We analyze the effect of different structural conditions via numerical simulations. We find that these conditions have a stunning effect on the long run rate of income growth and distribution. For example, product and demand variety have a jointly positive effect on growth when variety cumulates over time. Large jumps in technological change affect the economy in a very heterogeneous way, depending on the complexity of firm organization; the positive effect of complex organizational structures on growth can be hindered by large earning disparities