An Operational Model of Iceberg Drift

A new iceberg drift, deterioration and calving model has been under development at the Canadian Ice Service (CIS). The model includes several new features including the utilization of detailed environmental forcing input, and a robust implicit numerical solution method. In particular, the vertical distribution of water current is incorporated in calculations of water drag force on the iceberg keel. The model is also the first to include treatment of calving, prediction of calved ice piece size distribution and deterioration, as well as the drift of calved pieces. This paper gives a description of the drift model formulation, and verification tests that include comparisons of model predictions with field observations. Additionally, the paper presents the outcome of a parametric study aimed at examining the sensitivity of iceberg drift to input parameters and environmental forcing. Tests examined the role of water and air drag coefficients, water current, wind waves and the waterline length of the iceberg. A number of scenarios of input water current, and wind drag force were also considered. The results determine the impact of the input parameters and variables on predicted iceberg tracks.NRC publication: Ye

Flow of Ice through Long Converging Channels

This paper examines some issues of the flow of ice in long and converging channels which may affect navigation. The emphasis is on pressure distributions and the role of ice properties and tidal currents. The present work employs an ice dynamics model that is based on a viscous plastic constitutive model with an elliptical yield envelope, the thickness redistribution model of Savage (2007), and a Particle-In-Cell (PIC) advection approach. Pressure distributions are obtained for an idealized geometry and uniform wind forcing. The results indicate that zones of relatively low pressures develop along the centre of the channel. Increasing the shear strength of the ice cover leads to somewhat lower pressures within such zones along the centre of the channel. That reduction of pressure is caused by the increased transfer of wind forces to land boundaries. Tides are shown to generally decrease pressures. The tidal currents also increase the overall drift, although drift slows and even reverses direction during parts of the tidal cycle.NRC publication: Ye

The occupation of a box as a toy model for the seismic cycle of a fault

We illustrate how a simple statistical model can describe the quasiperiodic occurrence of large earthquakes. The model idealizes the loading of elastic energy in a seismic fault by the stochastic filling of a box. The emptying of the box after it is full is analogous to the generation of a large earthquake in which the fault relaxes after having been loaded to its failure threshold. The duration of the filling process is analogous to the seismic cycle, the time interval between two successive large earthquakes in a particular fault. The simplicity of the model enables us to derive the statistical distribution of its seismic cycle. We use this distribution to fit the series of earthquakes with magnitude around 6 that occurred at the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault in California. Using this fit, we estimate the probability of the next large earthquake at Parkfield and devise a simple forecasting strategy.Comment: Final version of the published paper, with an erratum and an unpublished appendix with some proof

Bimodal Coherence in Dense Self-Interacting Neutrino Gases

Analytical solutions are obtained to the nonlinear equations describing neutrino oscillations when explicit neutrino-antineutrino asymmetries are present. Such a system occurs in the early Universe if neutrinos have a non-zero chemical potential. Solutions to the equations lead to a new type of coherent behavior governed by two modes. These bimodal solutions provide new insights into dense neutrino gases and into neutrino oscillations in the early Universe, thereby allowing one to surmise the flavor behavior of neutrinos with a non-zero chemical potential.Comment: 21 pages in Latex, 11 figures packaged in one Postscript file. Figures also obtainable as 20 gif files at http://www.sci.ccny.cuny.edu/~ssamuel/bimodalfigs.html Revision on 4/19/96 was to pack the figures more sensibly. This paper is to appear in a May issue of Phys. Rev.

Neutrino Oscillations in the Early Universe with Nonequilibrium Neutrino Distributions

Around one second after the big bang, neutrino decoupling and $e^+$-$e^-$ annihilation distort the Fermi-Dirac spectrum of neutrino energies. Assuming neutrinos have masses and can mix, we compute the distortions using nonequilibrium thermodynamics and the Boltzmann equation. The flavor behavior of neutrinos is studied during and following the generation of the distortion.Comment: accepted for publication in Physical Review

Colouration in amphibians as a reflection of nutritional status : the case of tree frogs in Costa Rica

Colouration has been considered a cue for mating success in many species; ornaments in males often are related to carotenoid mobilization towards feathers and/or skin and can signal general health and nutrition status. However, there are several factors that can also link with status, such as physiological blood parameters and body condition, but there is not substantial evidence which supports the existence of these relationships and interactions in anurans. This study evaluated how body score and blood values interact with colouration in free-range Agalychnis callidryas and Agalychnis annae males. We found significant associations between body condition and plasmatic proteins and haematocrit, as well as between body condition and colour values from the chromaticity diagram. We also demonstrated that there is a significant relation between the glucose and plasmatic protein values that were reflected in the ventral colours of the animals, and haematocrit inversely affected most of those colour values. Significant differences were found between species as well as between populations of A. callidryas, suggesting that despite colour variation, there are also biochemical differences within animals from the same species located in different regions. These data provide information on underlying factors for colouration of male tree frogs in nature, provide insights about the dynamics of several nutrients in the amphibian model and how this could affect the reproductive output of the animals

Cryptic diversity and ranavirus infection of a critically endangered Neotropical frog before and after population collapse

Mesoamerican amphibian declines in apparently pristine and protected habitats have been severe, especially at elevations above 500 m sea level and have been linked to emerging diseases and a changing climate. The Craugastor punctariolus species series of direct developing frogs is endemic to the region and used to be comprised of 33 species, seven of which have known populations at present. One of these, Craugastor ranoides, endemic to southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica, was historically found in cloud forest sites of Área de Conservación Guanacaste (ACG) in north-west Costa Rica and extended into dry forest sites 20 km distant. Here C. ranoides declined and disappeared from high elevation sites between the late 1980s and early 1990s, but populations persisted in the lowland dry forest. We compared the genetic richness and ranavirus infection status of C. ranoides from extant dry forest populations to historic museum specimens of now extinct ACG cloud forest populations using DNA sequence diversity at two mitochondrial loci and molecular screening for ranavirus. Extant dry forest populations of C. ranoides formed a monophyletic group which included historic specimens sampled at cloud forest sites. However, the extirpated ACG cloud forest population contained additional diversity: samples formed a divergent clade with unknown spatial distribution. Ranavirus was detected in both current and museum samples of C. ranoides and sequences from a 267-nucleotide region of the major capsid protein gene shared 100% sequence identity with one another and with Frog virus 3. Our findings document cryptic diversity within an endangered species that has demonstrated no recovery in cloud forests and raises questions about Ranavirus as a potential driver of amphibian decline in this system. The presence of the same C. ranoides clade within present day and historical samples suggests a potential for effective translocation and repopulation of extirpated cloud forest populations

Characterization of systematic error in Advanced LIGO calibration

The raw outputs of the detectors within the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory need to be calibrated in order to produce the estimate of the dimensionless strain used for astrophysical analyses. The two detectors have been upgraded since the second observing run and finished the year-long third observing run. Understanding, accounting, and/or compensating for the complex-valued response of each part of the upgraded detectors improves the overall accuracy of the estimated detector response to gravitational waves. We describe improved understanding and methods used to quantify the response of each detector, with a dedicated effort to define all places where systematic error plays a role. We use the detectors as they stand in the first half (six months) of the third observing run to demonstrate how each identified systematic error impacts the estimated strain and constrain the statistical uncertainty therein. For this time period, we estimate the upper limit on systematic error and associated uncertainty to be $< 7\%$ in magnitude and $< 4$ deg in phase ($68\%$ confidence interval) in the most sensitive frequency band 20-2000 Hz. The systematic error alone is estimated at levels of $< 2\%$ in magnitude and $< 2$ deg in phase