Observed modes of sea surface temperature variability in the South Pacific region

The South Pacific (SP) region exerts large control on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere at many times scales. This paper identifies the main modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SP which consist of a tropical-driven mode related to a horseshoe structure of positive/negative SST anomalies within midlatitudes and highly correlated to ENSO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) variability, and another mode mostly confined to extratropical latitudes which is characterized by zonal propagation of SST anomalies within the South Pacific Gyre. Both modes are associated with temperature and rainfall anomalies over the continental regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Besides the leading mode which is related to well known warmer/cooler and drier/moister conditions due to its relationship with ENSO and the IPO, an inspection of the extratropical mode indicates that it is associated with distinct patterns of sea level pressure and surface temperature advection. These relationships are used here as plausible and partial explanations to the observed warming trend observed within the Southern Hemisphere during the last decades.The authors would like to thank Scott Power for his comments on an earlier version of the manuscript and the two anonymous reviewers whose suggestions led to a substantial improvement of the paper. This study was supported by Grants UBACyT-20020100100803, UBACyT-20020120300051, PIP-11220120100586 and the SPECS (GA 308378) EU-funded Project. JG-S was partially supported by the H2020-funded MSCA-IF-EF DPETNA project (GA No. 655339). The authors acknowledge the Red Española de Supercomputación (RES) and PRACE for awarding access to MareNostrum 3 at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center through the HiResClim project. The support of Virginie Guémas and Oriol Mula-Valls at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center is warmly appreciated.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

La hidrología superficial de la cuenca del Plata y su representación a través de simulaciones climáticas: identificación de errores y mecanismos físicos asociados

La cuenca del Plata es la quinta más grande del mundo y mediante su régimen hídrico provee de agua potable a cientos de millones de personas a través de cinco países en Sudamérica. Trabajos previos han mostrado la alta sensibilidad de la cuenca tanto a las condiciones climáticas medias como a su variabilidad, por lo que posibles cambios futuros en estas condiciones podrían determinar variaciones significativas en las condiciones de disponibilidad hídrica. En este trabajo de tesis se calibró el modelo hidrológico distribuido VIC sobre la región de la cuenca del Plata y se lo forzó con datos meteorológicos obtenidos de las simulaciones de algunos Modelos Climáticos Globales (MCG) contenidos en el conjunto de datos del WCRP/CMIP3 para el clima presente. Las simulaciones hidrológicas forzadas con las salidas de los MCG muestran grandes apartamientos respecto de los caudales observados. Estas diferencias se deben a los errores que los mismos tienen para representar varios aspectos del clima global y del de Sudamérica en particular. En términos generales, se encuentra que la gran mayoría de los MCG simula menos precipitación que la observada a nivel anual sobre el sudeste de la cuenca, en tanto que representan condiciones más cálidas. Estos errores determinan diferencias marcadas respecto de los caudales observados y esto implica una limitación para efectuar posibles inferencias del clima futuro de la cuenca. Por tal motivo, se utilizó el modelo climático CAM (la versión atmosférica del CCSM, desarrollado en NCAR) para analizar los mecanismos físicos y/o dinámicos que explican el patrón de subestimación de la precipitación sobre el sudeste de Sudamérica en los modelos. Se llevaron a cabo experimentos de sensibilidad a cambios en la orografía de Sudamérica, condiciones de borde, variaciones en la resolución horizontal y en el esquema convectivo. Los resultados muestran la máxima sensibilidad a la elección del esquema de convección. Esto sugiere que la magnitud de los errores en las simulaciones climáticas globales puede disminuirse al mejorar la representación de la convección, a la vez que el incremento en la resolución espacial representa un factor de mejora de segundo orden, por detrás de las parametrizaciones físicas.The Plata basin is the fifth largest in the world and its rivers provide fresh water to hundreds of thousands of people across five different countries in South America. Previous works have shown the high sensitivity of the basin to both the mean climate conditions and to climate variability, and for this reason future changes in these conditions could lead to significant variations in water availability. In this thesis the VIC distributed hydrologic model was calibrated in the Plata basin region and it was afterwards forced with meteorological inputs obtained from Global Climate Models (GCM) simulations from the WCRP/CMIP3 for the present climate. These hydrologic simulations show large discrepancies with respect to the observed streamflows. These differences are explained by the large errors that GCM have in representing various aspects of the observed climate worldwide and in particular over South America. In general it is found that many of the GCM tend to represent less rainfall than observed annually over the southeastern part of the region, while simulated conditions also tend to be warmer than observed. All these errors determine differences when comparing the derived streamflows with those observed. For this reason, in this study the CAM climatic model (the atmospheric part of the CCSM GCM, developed at NCAR) was used to analyze the physical and/or dynamical mechanisms responsible for the pattern of underestimation of precipitation over southeastern South America in the GCM. Sensitivity experiments were performed to analyze the impact of changes in the topography of South America, the boundary conditions (changes in sea surface temperatures over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans), variations in the horizontal resolution and in the convective scheme on the simulated climate. Results show that the largest sensitivity appears when modifying the convective scheme, surpassing in fact the effect given by an increase in horizontal resolution. This suggests that the magnitude of the errors in GCM simulations can diminish when improving the representation of convection, while increasing the horizontal resolution is a second-order improvement factor, behind the physical parameterizations.Fil:Saurral, Ramiro I.. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina

Changes in stratospheric ozone concentrations shape air temperature distributions on the Antarctic Peninsula

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is a climate change hotspot, in which any alterations to the atmospheric circulation can lead to significant impacts on the cryosphere. Even though substantial evidence has been found on the effects of human-related greenhouse gas emissions on the climate of the AP, less studies have analyzed the effect of variations in stratospheric ozone concentrations on the regional climate, and that is the focus of this paper. Results show significant links between the concentration of stratospheric ozone and the regional circulation, as well as with variations on the frequency and intensity of cold air snaps east of the AP. Significant relationships are found between changes in ozone concentrations and minimum/maximum temperature distributions over AP weather stations over most of the seasons. A strong link is also found with the location, depth and intensity of the Amundsen Sea Low west of the AP, which is in most cases responsible for the temperature anomalies identified in this study.The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewer and the Editor whose comments and suggestions helped to improve the paper. The research leading to this article was partly funded by Grant PICT2020-SerieA-03172 from the Agencia Nacional de Promoción de la Investigación, el Desarrollo Tecnológico y la Innovación (Ministry of Science and Technology of Argentina) to the University of Buenos Aires. The authors would like to acknowledge François Massonnet and Kyle Clem for fruitful discussions on an earlier version of this manuscript, as well as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for constructing and making available the ERA-5489 reanalysis dataset.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Observed modes of sea surface temperature variability in the South Pacific region

The South Pacific (SP) region exerts large control on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere at many times scales. This paper identifies the main modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SP which consist of a tropical-driven mode related to a horseshoe structure of positive/negative SST anomalies within midlatitudes and highly correlated to ENSO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) variability, and another mode mostly confined to extratropical latitudes which is characterized by zonal propagation of SST anomalies within the South Pacific Gyre. Both modes are associated with temperature and rainfall anomalies over the continental regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Besides the leading mode which is related to well known warmer/cooler and drier/moister conditions due to its relationship with ENSO and the IPO, an inspection of the extratropical mode indicates that it is associated with distinct patterns of sea level pressure and surface temperature advection. These relationships are used here as plausible and partial explanations to the observed warming trend observed within the Southern Hemisphere during the last decades.The authors would like to thank Scott Power for his comments on an earlier version of the manuscript and the two anonymous reviewers whose suggestions led to a substantial improvement of the paper. This study was supported by Grants UBACyT-20020100100803, UBACyT-20020120300051, PIP-11220120100586 and the SPECS (GA 308378) EU-funded Project. JG-S was partially supported by the H2020-funded MSCA-IF-EF DPETNA project (GA No. 655339). The authors acknowledge the Red Española de Supercomputación (RES) and PRACE for awarding access to MareNostrum 3 at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center through the HiResClim project. The support of Virginie Guémas and Oriol Mula-Valls at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center is warmly appreciated.Peer Reviewe

A Data Set for Intercomparing the Transient Behavior of Dynamical Model‐Based Subseasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions

Climate predictions using coupled models in different time scales, from intraseasonal to decadal, are usually affected by initial shocks, drifts, and biases, which reduce the prediction skill. These arise from inconsistencies between different components of the coupled models and from the tendency of the model state to evolve from the prescribed initial conditions toward its own climatology over the course of the prediction. Aiming to provide tools and further insight into the mechanisms responsible for initial shocks, drifts, and biases, this paper presents a novel data set developed within the Long Range Forecast Transient Intercomparison Project, LRFTIP. This data set has been constructed by averaging hindcasts over available prediction years and ensemble members to form a hindcast climatology, that is a function of spatial variables and lead time, and thus results in a useful tool for characterizing and assessing the evolution of errors as well as the physical mechanisms responsible for them. A discussion on such errors at the different time scales is provided along with plausible ways forward in the field of climate predictions.The authors would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers, whose suggestions helped improve and clarify several aspects of the manuscript, as well as Editor Dr. Stephen Griffies. In addition, Hai Lin and Yuhei Takaya provided helpful comments about the behavior of the ECCC-S2S and JMA-S2S models, respectively. The assistance of Marina Trubina in constructing S2S hindcast climatologies for the LRFTIP data set is also kindly acknowledged.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version