58 research outputs found

    Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods

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    Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results\u2014arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far\u2014suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management

    Flammable biomes dominated by eucalypts originated at the Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary

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    Fire is a major modifier of communities, but the evolutionary origins of its prevalent role in shaping current biomes are uncertain. Australia is among the most fire-prone continents, with most of the landmass occupied by the fire-dependent sclerophyll and savanna biomes. In contrast to biomes with similar climates in other continents, Australia has a tree flora dominated by a single genus, Eucalyptus, and related Myrtaceae. A unique mechanism in Myrtaceae for enduring and recovering from fire damage likely resulted in this dominance. Here, we find a conserved phylogenetic relationship between post-fire resprouting (epicormic) anatomy and biome evolution, dating from 60 to 62 Ma, in the earliest Palaeogene. Thus, fire-dependent communities likely existed 50 million years earlier than previously thought. We predict that epicormic resprouting could make eucalypt forests and woodlands an excellent long-term carbon bank for reducing atmospheric CO2 compared with biomes with similar fire regimes in other continents

    Recent advances in understanding the roles of whole genome duplications in evolution

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    Ancient whole-genome duplications (WGDs)—paleopolyploidy events—are key to solving Darwin’s ‘abominable mystery’ of how flowering plants evolved and radiated into a rich variety of species. The vertebrates also emerged from their invertebrate ancestors via two WGDs, and genomes of diverse gymnosperm trees, unicellular eukaryotes, invertebrates, fishes, amphibians and even a rodent carry evidence of lineage-specific WGDs. Modern polyploidy is common in eukaryotes, and it can be induced, enabling mechanisms and short-term cost-benefit assessments of polyploidy to be studied experimentally. However, the ancient WGDs can be reconstructed only by comparative genomics: these studies are difficult because the DNA duplicates have been through tens or hundreds of millions of years of gene losses, mutations, and chromosomal rearrangements that culminate in resolution of the polyploid genomes back into diploid ones (rediploidisation). Intriguing asymmetries in patterns of post-WGD gene loss and retention between duplicated sets of chromosomes have been discovered recently, and elaborations of signal transduction systems are lasting legacies from several WGDs. The data imply that simpler signalling pathways in the pre-WGD ancestors were converted via WGDs into multi-stranded parallelised networks. Genetic and biochemical studies in plants, yeasts and vertebrates suggest a paradigm in which different combinations of sister paralogues in the post-WGD regulatory networks are co-regulated under different conditions. In principle, such networks can respond to a wide array of environmental, sensory and hormonal stimuli and integrate them to generate phenotypic variety in cell types and behaviours. Patterns are also being discerned in how the post-WGD signalling networks are reconfigured in human cancers and neurological conditions. It is fascinating to unpick how ancient genomic events impact on complexity, variety and disease in modern life

    On the visual detection of non-natural records in streamflow time series: challenges and impacts

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    Large datasets of long-term streamflow measurements are widely used to infer and model hydrological processes. However, streamflow measurements may suffer from what users can consider anomalies, i.e. non-natural records that may be erroneous streamflow values or anthropogenic influences that can lead to misinterpretation of actual hydrological processes. Since identifying anomalies is time consuming for humans, no study has investigated their proportion, temporal distribution, and influence on hydrological indicators over large datasets. This study summarizes the results of a large visual inspection campaign of 674 streamflow time series in France made by 43 evaluators, who were asked to identify anomalies falling under five categories, namely, linear interpolation, drops, noise, point anomalies, and other. We examined the evaluators' individual behaviour in terms of severity and agreement with other evaluators, as well as the temporal distributions of the anomalies and their influence on commonly used hydrological indicators. We found that inter-evaluator agreement was surprisingly low, with an average of 12 % of overlapping periods reported as anomalies. These anomalies were mostly identified as linear interpolation and noise, and they were more frequently reported during the low-flow periods in summer. The impact of cleaning data from the identified anomaly values was higher on low-flow indicators than on high-flow indicators, with change rates lower than 5 % most of the time. We conclude that the identification of anomalies in streamflow time series is highly dependent on the aims and skills of each evaluator, which raises questions about the best practices to adopt for data cleaning.</p

    Potencial inseticida de plantas da famĂ­lia Annonaceae

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