Regional climate change and national responsibilities

Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the 'bell curve' defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies

Implications of energy and CO2 emission changes in Japan and Germany after the Fukushima accident.

Following the March 2011 nuclear power plant accident in Fukushima, Japan, nuclear power production declined sharply in that country as well as Germany. Despite widespread media coverage of CO2 emission increases in the first few years afterward, subsequent energy and emission changes and their implications are not well-studied. Here we analyze energy, electricity, and CO2 emissions data for both countries through 2017. We also quantify the human health and CO2 implications of two simple yet illuminating scenarios: What if both countries had reduced fossil fuel power output instead of nuclear? And what if the US and the rest of Europe eliminate their remaining nuclear power? We find that emissions increased after Fukushima until 2013 but decreased thereafter due to record-high renewable energy production and lower total energy use. However our “what if” scenarios demonstrate that these two countries could have prevented 28,000 air pollution-induced deaths and 2400 MtCO2 emissions between 2011 and 2017. Germany can still prevent 16,000 deaths and 1100 MtCO2 emissions by 2035 by reducing coal instead of eliminating nuclear as planned. If the US and the rest of Europe follow Germany's example they could lose the chance to prevent over 200,000 deaths and 14,000 MtCO2 emissions by 2035

Support for UNRWA's survival

The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) provides life-saving humanitarian aid for 5·4 million Palestine refugees now entering their eighth decade of statelessness and conflict. About a third of Palestine refugees still live in 58 recognised camps. UNRWA operates 702 schools and 144 health centres, some of which are affected by the ongoing humanitarian disasters in Syria and the Gaza Strip. It has dramatically reduced the prevalence of infectious diseases, mortality, and illiteracy. Its social services include rebuilding infrastructure and homes that have been destroyed by conflict and providing cash assistance and micro-finance loans for Palestinians whose rights are curtailed and who are denied the right of return to their homeland

Effect of trinucleotide repeat expansion on the expression of TCF4 mRNA in Fuchs' endothelial corneal dystrophy

Purpose: CTG trinucleotide repeat (TNR) expansion is frequently found in transcription factor 4 (TCF4) in Fuchs' endothelial corneal dystrophy (FECD), though the effect of TNR expansion on FECD pathophysiology remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of TNR expansion on TCF4 expression in corneal endothelium of patients with FECD. Methods: Peripheral blood DNA and Descemet membrane with corneal endothelium were obtained from 203 German patients with FECD. The CTG TNR repeat length in TCF4 was determined by short tandem repeat (STR) assays and Southern blotting using genomic DNA. Genotyping of rs613872 in TCF4 was performed by PCR. TCF4 mRNA levels in corneal endothelium were evaluated by quantitative PCR using three different probes. Control corneal endothelial samples were obtained from 35 non-FECD subjects. Results: The STR assay and Southern blotting showed that 162 of the 203 patients with FECD (80%) harbored CTG trinucleotide repeat lengths larger than 50. Quantitative PCR using all three probes demonstrated that TCF4 mRNA is significantly upregulated in the corneal endothelium of patients with FECD, regardless of the presence of TNR expansion. However, the length of the TNR tended to show a positive correlation with TCF4 expression level. No correlation was shown between the genotype of TCF4 SNP, rs613872, and the level of TCF4 expression. Conclusions: Our findings showed that TCF4 mRNA is upregulated in the corneal endothelium of patients with FECD. Further studies on the effects of TCF4 upregulation on corneal endothelial cell function will aid in understanding the pathophysiology of FECD

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

Meeting abstrac

Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study

We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880–2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the "alternative" scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004). Identification of "dangerous" effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1°C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1°C if climate sensitivity is ~3°C or less for doubled CO2. The alternative scenario keeps mean regional seasonal warming within 2σ (standard deviations) of 20th century variability, but other scenarios yield regional changes of 5–10σ, i.e. mean conditions outside the range of local experience. We conclude that a CO2 level exceeding about 450 ppm is "dangerous", but reduction of non-CO2 forcings can provide modest relief on the CO2 constraint. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. We suggest that Arctic climate change has been driven as much by pollutants (O3, its precursor CH4, and soot) as by CO2, offering hope that dual efforts to reduce pollutants and slow CO2 growth could minimize Arctic change. Simulated recent ocean warming in the region of Atlantic hurricane formation is comparable to observations, suggesting that greenhouse gases (GHGs) may have contributed to a trend toward greater hurricane intensities. Increasing GHGs cause significant warming in our model in submarine regions of ice shelves and shallow methane hydrates, raising concern about the potential for accelerating sea level rise and future positive feedback from methane release. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2 forcings are required to achieve the low forcing of the alternative scenario