How modelers construct energy costs: Discursive elements in Energy System and Integrated Assessment Models

Energy system and integrated assessment models (IAMs) are widely used techniques for knowledge production to assess costs of future energy pathways and economic effects of energy/climate policies. With their increased use for policy assessment and increasing dominance in energy policy science, such models attract increasing criticism. In the last years, such models – especially the highly complex IAMs, have been accused of being arbitrary. We challenge this view and argue that the models and their assumptions are not arbitrary, but they are normative and reflect the modelers’ understanding of the functioning of the society, the environment-societal relations and respective appropriate scientific tools and theories – in short: models are shaped by discursive structures, reproducing and reinforcing particular societal discourses. We identify 9 distinct paths, all relating to crucial model decisions, via which discourses enter models: for each of these decisions, there are multiple “correct” answers, in the sense that they can be justified within a particular discourse. We conclude that decisions of modelers about the structure and about assumptions in energy modeling are not arbitrary but contingent to the discursive context the modeler is related to. This has two implications. First, modelers and consumers of model output must reflect on what a model and its assumptions represent, and not only whether are they correct. Second, models hardly need to add more (mathematical) complexity, but rather be reduced and simplified so that they can continue to fulfill their main function as formalized and powerful instruments for thought experiments about future energy pathways

How modelers construct energy costs: Discursive elements in Energy System and Integrated Assessment Models

Energy system and integrated assessment models (IAMs) are widely used techniques for knowledge production to assess costs of future energy pathways and economic effects of energy/climate policies. With their increased use for policy assessment and increasing dominance in energy policy science, such models attract increasing criticism. In the last years, such models – especially the highly complex IAMs, have been accused of being arbitrary. We challenge this view and argue that the models and their assumptions are not arbitrary, but they are normative and reflect the modelers’ understanding of the functioning of the society, the environment-societal relations and respective appropriate scientific tools and theories – in short: models are shaped by discursive structures, reproducing and reinforcing particular societal discourses. We identify 9 distinct paths, all relating to crucial model decisions, via which discourses enter models: for each of these decisions, there are multiple “correct” answers, in the sense that they can be justified within a particular discourse. We conclude that decisions of modelers about the structure and about assumptions in energy modeling are not arbitrary but contingent to the discursive context the modeler is related to. This has two implications. First, modelers and consumers of model output must reflect on what a model and its assumptions represent, and not only whether are they correct. Second, models hardly need to add more (mathematical) complexity, but rather be reduced and simplified so that they can continue to fulfill their main function as formalized and powerful instruments for thought experiments about future energy pathways.ISSN:2214-629

Energy security and renewable electricity trade--Will Desertec make Europe vulnerable to the "energy weapon"?

Solar power imports to Europe from the deserts of North Africa, as foreseen in the Desertec concept, is one possible way to help decarbonising the European power sector by 2050. However, this approach raises questions of threats to European energy security in such an import scenario, particularly in the light of increasing import dependency and Russia's use of the "energy weapon" in recent years. In this paper we investigate the threat of North African countries using the Desertec electricity exports as an "energy weapon". We develop and use a new model to assess the interdependence - the bargaining power symmetry, operationalised as costs - of a disruption in a future renewable electricity trade between North Africa and Europe. If Europe maintains current capacity buffers, some demand-response capability and does not import much more than what is described in the Desertec scenario, it is susceptible to extortion and political pressure only if all five exporter countries unite in using the energy weapon. Europe is not vulnerable to extortion by an export cut from only one country, as the European capacity buffers are sufficient to restore the power supply: no single exporter country would have sustained bargaining power over Europe.Energy security Desertec Interdependence

Security of supply in european electricity markets-determinants of investment decisions and the European Energy Union

The European Union and its Member States are seeking to decarbonize their energy systems, including the electricity sector and, at the same time, pursue market integration. However, renewable energy (RE) deployment and the liberalization of the energy-only market have raised concerns at the national level about the security of electricity supplies in the future. Some actors consider the lack of sufficient investments in generation capacities a threat to supply security. As a consequence, it was proposed that capacity markets solve these problems. The underlying assumption is that the market design is the only determining factor for investments in security of supply options. In this article, we question this narrow view and identify further determinants of the investment decisions of electricity market participants. Based on the insights of institutional sociology and economics, we understand the market to be a social institution that structures the behavioural expectations of market participants. Derived from the theoretical conceptualization and based on qualitative literature review and own work, we find four determinants for investment behaviour beyond the formal market design: Material opportunities, strategic actor behavior and identity, focusing events and discursive expectations about the future. With this perspective, we discuss the introduction of a European Energy Union as a possible tool that might have a great impact on the more informal determinants such as expectations about the future and the construction of a European energy narrative

Der Strommarkt als soziale Institution – Eine erweiterte Perspektive auf die deutsche Diskussion um Kapazitätsmechanismen

Ausgangspunkt für Forderungen nach einer Einführung von Kapazitätsmechanismen im deutschen Strommarkt ist die Beobachtung, dass das gegenwärtige Investitionsverhalten der Marktakteure zu einem unzureichenden Niveau der Stromversorgungssicherheit führen könnte. In dem vorliegenden Beitrag wird die enge logische Verknüpfung zwischen Investitionstätigkeit und einer Änderung des formellen Marktdesigns hinterfragt und eine erweiterte Perspektive für die Interpretation des gegenwärtigen Marktergebnisses erarbeitet. Den theoretischen Rahmen dafür bieten die Institutionenökonomie und die Neue Wirtschaftssoziologie. Neben dem Strommarktdesign werden als weitere Einflussfaktoren auf das Verhalten der Marktakteure die materiellen Opportunitäten im Inland und in gekoppelten Strommärkten, die Erwartungen über künftige Marktentwicklungen und das strategische Verhalten der Marktakteure identifiziert. Unsere Analyse zeigt, dass Investitionen in flexible Kapazitäten durchaus auch innerhalb des bestehenden Marktdesigns bei einer Veränderung der materiellen, finanziellen und/oder institutionellen Opportunitäten und Erwartungen angestoßen werden könnten. Summary The fear that the current market design could lead to underinvestment in flexible capacity in the German power market is often countered with proposals for capacity markets to ensure the security of future electricity supply. This article challenges this narrow view of an unambiguous logical connection between a reformation of the power market design and a change in investment behavior and develops a broader perspective for the interpretation of the current market outcome. We create a theoretical framework based on insights from institutional economics and the new economic sociology. We find that in addition to the formal market design, the material opportunities, the coupling of the electricity sector with related systems, expectations about the future market development, and strategic actor behavior may have an influence on the investment decisions in the power market. The analysis indicates that investment in flexible capacity can be possible even within the current market design, if the material, financial, and/or institutional opportunities and expectations change. JEL Classification: B52, D40, D83, P4

Förderung des Radverkehrs in Städten + Gemeinden

FÖRDERUNG DES RADVERKEHRS IN STÄDTEN + GEMEINDEN Förderung des Radverkehrs in Städten + Gemeinden / Ellenbeck, Saskia (Rights reserved) ( -

Security of Supply in European Electricity Markets—Determinants of Investment Decisions and the European Energy Union

The European Union and its Member States are seeking to decarbonize their energy systems, including the electricity sector and, at the same time, pursue market integration. However, renewable energy (RE) deployment and the liberalization of the energy-only market have raised concerns at the national level about the security of electricity supplies in the future. Some actors consider the lack of sufficient investments in generation capacities a threat to supply security. As a consequence, it was proposed that capacity markets solve these problems. The underlying assumption is that the market design is the only determining factor for investments in security of supply options. In this article, we question this narrow view and identify further determinants of the investment decisions of electricity market participants. Based on the insights of institutional sociology and economics, we understand the market to be a social institution that structures the behavioural expectations of market participants. Derived from the theoretical conceptualization and based on qualitative literature review and own work, we find four determinants for investment behaviour beyond the formal market design: Material opportunities, strategic actor behavior and identity, focusing events and discursive expectations about the future. With this perspective, we discuss the introduction of a European Energy Union as a possible tool that might have a great impact on the more informal determinants such as expectations about the future and the construction of a European energy narrative

Stakeholder involvement in sustainability science : a critical view

Discussions about the opening of science to society have led to several developments: New fields of sustainability science and transformative research have emerged and the "megatrend" of stakeholder participation has reached the academic world and thus research processes. This challenges the way science is conducted and the tools, methods and theories perceived appropriate. Although researchers integrate stakeholders, the scientific community still lacks comprehensive theoretical analysis of the practical processes behind it – for example what kind of perceptions scientists have about their role, their objectives, the knowledge to gather, the understanding of science or the science-policy interface. Our paper addresses this research gap by using the categories above to develop four ideal types of stakeholder involvement in science – the technocratic, functionalist, neoliberal, rational and democratic type. In applying the typology which is based on literature review, interviews and practical experience, we identify and discuss three major criticisms raised towards stakeholder involvement in science: the legitimacy of stakeholder claims, the question whether bargaining or deliberation are part of the stakeholder process and the question of the autonomy of science. Thus, the typology helps scientists to better understand the major critical questions that stakeholder involvement raises and enables them to position themselves

Security of Supply in European Electricity Markets—Determinants of Investment Decisions and the European Energy Union

The European Union and its Member States are seeking to decarbonize their energy systems, including the electricity sector and, at the same time, pursue market integration. However, renewable energy (RE) deployment and the liberalization of the energy-only market have raised concerns at the national level about the security of electricity supplies in the future. Some actors consider the lack of sufficient investments in generation capacities a threat to supply security. As a consequence, it was proposed that capacity markets solve these problems. The underlying assumption is that the market design is the only determining factor for investments in security of supply options. In this article, we question this narrow view and identify further determinants of the investment decisions of electricity market participants. Based on the insights of institutional sociology and economics, we understand the market to be a social institution that structures the behavioural expectations of market participants. Derived from the theoretical conceptualization and based on qualitative literature review and own work, we find four determinants for investment behaviour beyond the formal market design: Material opportunities, strategic actor behavior and identity, focusing events and discursive expectations about the future. With this perspective, we discuss the introduction of a European Energy Union as a possible tool that might have a great impact on the more informal determinants such as expectations about the future and the construction of a European energy narrative