Getting the Family Together Again: Restoring the Midlevel Connections in Northwest Yearly Meeting of Friends

Historically Friends (Quakers) have had a polity that reflected the denomination\u27s strong sense of community with a structure and traditions that enabled practical caring for one another and accountability to one another. This community extended beyond local congregations to include Friends in other places. In the last half of the 201 h century the American group of Quakers known as Northwest Yearly Meeting of Friends made structural changes to their midlevel connections, the Quarterly Meeting, that were intended to help the church operate more efficiently. Unfortunately, a related and unintended consequence was to reduce communication and connection between and among their congregations. These changes, taking place concurrently with broader cultural trends in America of localism and devaluation of denominations, have resulted in a mindset among many evangelical Friends in the Pacific Northwest that can be described as de facto congregationalism. The problem for which this dissertation pursues some resolution is how to restore meaningful connection among the congregations of Northwest Yearly Meeting in order to enable a healthy extended family, and faithfulness to a Friends understanding of the Church. The narrative of Chapter 1 establishes the context of the problem both for Friends in Northwest Yearly Meeting and in the broader culture. The chapter also includes a section on vocabulary and acronyms peculiar to Friends in general and this specific group of Friends. Chapter 2 explores New Testament images of the church and specifically the community and relational aspects of the church, showing that the isolated and individualistic Christianity of some 21st century North Americans is far removed from the New Testament view of the church. Chapter 3 describes the beginnings of the Friends movement in 1 ih century England with special attention to the concept of the church that George Fox and other early Friends held, showing a pattern of accountability and caring across local group boundaries. Chapter 4 documents the changes made in NWYM in recent decades that altered the structure and consequently the polity of this group of Friends. Chapter 5 explores Presbyterians in the U.S. as a kind of control group to compare polity and practice. Chapter 6 offers specific proposals, both informal and formal, for restoring meaningful connection between the congregations o fNWYM of Friends

Soil Microbial Networks Shift Across a High-Elevation Successional Gradient.

While it is well established that microbial composition and diversity shift along environmental gradients, how interactions among microbes change is poorly understood. Here, we tested how community structure and species interactions among diverse groups of soil microbes (bacteria, fungi, non-fungal eukaryotes) change across a fundamental ecological gradient, succession. Our study system is a high-elevation alpine ecosystem that exhibits variability in successional stage due to topography and harsh environmental conditions. We used hierarchical Bayesian joint distribution modeling to remove the influence of environmental covariates on species distributions and generated interaction networks using the residual species-to-species variance-covariance matrix. We hypothesized that as ecological succession proceeds, diversity will increase, species composition will change, and soil microbial networks will become more complex. As expected, we found that diversity of most taxonomic groups increased over succession, and species composition changed considerably. Interestingly, and contrary to our hypothesis, interaction networks became less complex over succession (fewer interactions per taxon). Interactions between photosynthetic microbes and any other organism became less frequent over the gradient, whereas interactions between plants or soil microfauna and any other organism were more abundant in late succession. Results demonstrate that patterns in diversity and composition do not necessarily relate to patterns in network complexity and suggest that network analyses provide new insight into the ecology of highly diverse, microscopic communities

Multiple reassortment events in the evolutionary history of H1N1 influenza A virus since 1918

The H1N1 subtype of influenza A virus has caused substantial morbidity and mortality in humans, first documented in the global pandemic of 1918 and continuing to the present day. Despite this disease burden, the evolutionary history of the A/H1N1 virus is not well understood, particularly whether there is a virological basis for several notable epidemics of unusual severity in the 1940s and 1950s. Using a data set of 71 representative complete genome sequences sampled between 1918 and 2006, we show that segmental reassortment has played an important role in the genomic evolution of A/H1N1 since 1918. Specifically, we demonstrate that an A/H1N1 isolate from the 1947 epidemic acquired novel PB2 and HA genes through intra-subtype reassortment, which may explain the abrupt antigenic evolution of this virus. Similarly, the 1951 influenza epidemic may also have been associated with reassortant A/H1N1 viruses. Intra-subtype reassortment therefore appears to be a more important process in the evolution and epidemiology of H1N1 influenza A virus than previously realized

Sosa on Knowledge, Judgment and Guessing

In Chapter 3 of Judgment and Agency, Sosa (Judgment and Agency, 2015) explicates the concept of a fully apt performance. In the course of doing so, he draws from illustrative examples of practical performances and applies lessons drawn to the case of cognitive performances, and in particular, to the cognitive performance of judging. Sosa’s examples in the practical sphere are rich and instructive. But there is, I will argue, an interesting disanalogy between the practical and cognitive examples he relies on. Ultimately, I think the source of the disanalogy is a problematic picture of the cognitive performance of guessing and its connection to knowledge and defeat. Once this critical line of argument is advanced, an alternative picture of guessing, qua cognitive performance, is articulated, one which avoids the problems discussed, and yet remains compatible with Sosa’s broader framework

Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness

The incubation period of infectious diseases, the time from infection with a microorganism to onset of disease, is directly relevant to prevention and control. Since explicit models of the incubation period enhance our understanding of the spread of disease, previous classic studies were revisited, focusing on the modeling methods employed and paying particular attention to relatively unknown historical efforts. The earliest study on the incubation period of pandemic influenza was published in 1919, providing estimates of the incubation period of Spanish flu using the daily incidence on ships departing from several ports in Australia. Although the study explicitly dealt with an unknown time of exposure, the assumed periods of exposure, which had an equal probability of infection, were too long, and thus, likely resulted in slight underestimates of the incubation period

Syndromic surveillance: STL for modeling, visualizing, and monitoring disease counts

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Public health surveillance is the monitoring of data to detect and quantify unusual health events. Monitoring pre-diagnostic data, such as emergency department (ED) patient chief complaints, enables rapid detection of disease outbreaks. There are many sources of variation in such data; statistical methods need to accurately model them as a basis for timely and accurate disease outbreak methods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Our new methods for modeling daily chief complaint counts are based on a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL) and were developed using data from the 76 EDs of the Indiana surveillance program from 2004 to 2008. Square root counts are decomposed into inter-annual, yearly-seasonal, day-of-the-week, and random-error components. Using this decomposition method, we develop a new synoptic-scale (days to weeks) outbreak detection method and carry out a simulation study to compare detection performance to four well-known methods for nine outbreak scenarios.</p> <p>Result</p> <p>The components of the STL decomposition reveal insights into the variability of the Indiana ED data. Day-of-the-week components tend to peak Sunday or Monday, fall steadily to a minimum Thursday or Friday, and then rise to the peak. Yearly-seasonal components show seasonal influenza, some with bimodal peaks.</p> <p>Some inter-annual components increase slightly due to increasing patient populations. A new outbreak detection method based on the decomposition modeling performs well with 90 days or more of data. Control limits were set empirically so that all methods had a specificity of 97%. STL had the largest sensitivity in all nine outbreak scenarios. The STL method also exhibited a well-behaved false positive rate when run on the data with no outbreaks injected.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The STL decomposition method for chief complaint counts leads to a rapid and accurate detection method for disease outbreaks, and requires only 90 days of historical data to be put into operation. The visualization tools that accompany the decomposition and outbreak methods provide much insight into patterns in the data, which is useful for surveillance operations.</p

The value of privileged access

European Journal of Philosophy, EarlyView

Evolutionary Trends of A(H1N1) Influenza Virus Hemagglutinin Since 1918

The Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 is spreading to numerous countries and causing many human deaths. Although the symptoms in humans are mild at present, fears are that further mutations in the virus could lead to a potentially more dangerous outbreak in subsequent months. As the primary immunity-eliciting antigen, hemagglutinin (HA) is the major agent for host-driven antigenic drift in A(H3N2) virus. However, whether and how the evolution of HA is influenced by existing immunity is poorly understood for A(H1N1). Here, by analyzing hundreds of A(H1N1) HA sequences since 1918, we show the first evidence that host selections are indeed present in A(H1N1) HAs. Among a subgroup of human A(H1N1) HAs between 1918∼2008, we found strong diversifying (positive) selection at HA1 156 and 190. We also analyzed the evolutionary trends at HA1 190 and 225 that are critical determinants for receptor-binding specificity of A(H1N1) HA. Different A(H1N1) viruses appeared to favor one of these two sites in host-driven antigenic drift: epidemic A(H1N1) HAs favor HA1 190 while the 1918 pandemic and swine HAs favor HA1 225. Thus, our results highlight the urgency to understand the interplay between antigenic drift and receptor binding in HA evolution, and provide molecular signatures for monitoring future antigenically drifted 2009 pandemic and seasonal A(H1N1) influenza viruses

Do salivary bypass tubes lower the incidence of pharyngocutaneous fistula following total laryngectomy? A retrospective analysis of predictive factors using multivariate analysis

Salivary bypass tubes (SBT) are increasingly used to prevent pharyngocutaneous fistula (PCF) following laryngectomy and pharyngolaryngectomy. There is minimal evidence as to their efficacy and literature is limited. The aim of the study was to determine if SBT prevent PCF. The study was a multicentre retrospective case control series (level of evidence 3b). Patients who underwent laryngectomy or pharyngolaryngectomy for cancer or following cancer treatment between 2011 and 2014 were included in the study. The primary outcome was development of a PCF. Other variables recorded were age, sex, prior radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy, prior tracheostomy, type of procedure, concurrent neck dissection, use of flap reconstruction, use of prophylactic antibiotics, the suture material used for the anastomosis, tumour T stage, histological margins, day one post-operative haemoglobin and whether a salivary bypass tube was used. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed. A total of 199 patients were included and 24 received salivary bypass tubes. Fistula rates were 8.3% in the SBT group (2/24) and 24.6% in the control group (43/175). This was not statistically significant on univariate (p value 0.115) or multivariate analysis (p value 0.076). In addition, no other co-variables were found to be significant. No group has proven a benefit of salivary bypass tubes on multivariate analysis. The study was limited by a small case group, variations in tube duration and subjects given a tube may have been identified as high risk of fistula. Further prospective studies are warranted prior to recommendation of salivary bypass tubes following laryngectomy