Statistical emulation of a tsunami model for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification

Due to the catastrophic consequences of tsunamis, early warnings need to be issued quickly in order to mitigate the hazard. Additionally, there is a need to represent the uncertainty in the predictions of tsunami characteristics corresponding to the uncertain trigger features (e.g. either position, shape and speed of a landslide, or sea floor deformation associated with an earthquake). Unfortunately, computer models are expensive to run. This leads to significant delays in predictions and makes the uncertainty quantification impractical. Statistical emulators run almost instantaneously and may represent well the outputs of the computer model. In this paper, we use the Outer Product Emulator to build a fast statistical surrogate of a landslide-generated tsunami computer model. This Bayesian framework enables us to build the emulator by combining prior knowledge of the computer model properties with a few carefully chosen model evaluations. The good performance of the emulator is validated using the Leave-One-Out method

Search of the Higgs boson decaying into tau-leptons at ATLAS

The search for the Higgs boson is one of the main goals of the Large Hadron Collider experiments. Both in the Standard Model (SM) and in its minimal supersymmetric extensions (MSSM), one or several new bosons are expected as manifestations of the Higgs fi eld. The tau lepton will be essential for Higgs(es) discovery. In fact, both in SM and in the MSSM, the Higgs boson(s) decaying into tau-pairs is one of the favourite discovery channels, especially at low masses. The discovery potential of the ATLAS experiment for neutral Higgs bosons decaying into tau-pairs is shown both in the SM and the MSSM. For the latter, the results on the charged Higgs boson decaying into tau plus neutrino are also discussed

Shock creation and particle acceleration driven by plasma expansion into a rarefied medium

The expansion of a dense plasma through a more rarefied ionised medium is a phenomenon of interest in various physics environments ranging from astrophysics to high energy density laser- matter laboratory experiments. Here this situation is modeled via a 1D Particle-In-Cell simulation; a jump in the plasma density of a factor of 100 is introduced in the middle of an otherwise equally dense electron-proton plasma with an uniform proton and electron temperature of 10eV and 1keV respectively. The diffusion of the dense plasma, through the rarified one, triggers the onset of different nonlinear phenomena such as a strong ion-acoustic shock wave and a rarefaction wave. Secondary structures are detected, some of which are driven by a drift instability of the rarefaction wave. Efficient proton acceleration occurs ahead of the shock, bringing the maximum proton velocity up to 60 times the initial ion thermal speed

The evolution of a slow electrostatic shock into a plasma shock mediated by electrostatic turbulence

The collision of two plasma clouds at a speed that exceeds the ion acoustic speed can result in the formation of shocks. This phenomenon is observed not only in astrophysical scenarios such as the propagation of supernova remnant (SNR) blast shells into the interstellar medium, but also in laboratory-based laser-plasma experiments. These experiments and supporting simulations are thus seen as an attractive platform for the small-scale reproduction and study of astrophysical shocks in the laboratory. We model two plasma clouds, which consist of electrons and ions, with a 2D PIC simulation. The ion temperatures of both clouds differ by a factor of 10. Both clouds collide at a speed, which is realistic for laboratory studies and for SNR shocks in their late evolution phase like that of RCW86. A magnetic field, which is orthogonal to the simulation plane, has a strength that is comparable to that at SNR shocks. A forward shock forms between the overlap layer of both plasma clouds and the cloud with the cooler ions. A large-amplitude ion acoustic wave is observed between the overlap layer and the cloud with the hotter ions. It does not steepen into a reverse shock, because its speed is below the ion acoustic speed. A gradient of the magnetic field amplitude builds up close to the forward shock as it compresses the magnetic field. This gradient gives rise to an electron drift that is fast enough to trigger an instability. Electrostatic ion acoustic wave turbulence develops ahead of the shock. It widens its transition layer and thermalizes the ions, but the forward shock remains intact.Comment: Accepted for publication in the New Journal of Physic