Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

Multi-cation perovskites prevent carrier reflection from grain surfaces

© 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. The composition of perovskite has been optimized combinatorially such that it often contains six components (AxByC1−x−yPbXzY3−z) in state-of-art perovskite solar cells. Questions remain regarding the precise role of each component, and the lack of a mechanistic explanation limits the practical exploration of the large and growing chemical space. Here, aided by transient photoluminescence microscopy, we find that, in perovskite single crystals, carrier diffusivity is in fact independent of composition. In polycrystalline thin films, the different compositions play a crucial role in carrier diffusion. We report that methylammonium (MA)-based films show a high carrier diffusivity of 0.047 cm2 s−1, while MA-free mixed caesium-formamidinium (CsFA) films exhibit an order of magnitude lower diffusivity. Elemental composition studies show that CsFA grains display a graded composition. This curtails electron diffusion in these films, as seen in both vertical carrier transport and surface potential studies. Incorporation of MA leads to a uniform grain core-to-edge composition, giving rise to a diffusivity of 0.034 cm2 s−1 in CsMAFA films. A model that invokes competing crystallization processes allows us to account for this finding, and suggests further strategies to achieve homogeneous crystallization for the benefit of perovskite optoelectronics

The JWST Early-Release Science Program for Direct Observations of Exoplanetary Systems Ii: A 1 To 20 Μm Spectrum of the Planetary-Mass Companion Vhs 1256-1257 B

We present the highest fidelity spectrum to date of a planetary-mass object. VHS 1256 b is a (∼8″, a = 150 au), young, planetary-mass companion that shares photometric colors and spectroscopic features with the directly imaged exoplanets HR 8799c, d, and e. As an L-to-T transition object, VHS 1256 b exists along the region of the color-magnitude diagram where substellar atmospheres transition from cloudy to clear. We observed VHS 1256 b with JWST\u27s NIRSpec IFU and MIRI MRS modes for coverage from 1 to 20 μm at resolutions of ∼1000-3700. Water, methane, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, sodium, and potassium are observed in several portions of the JWST spectrum based on comparisons from template brown dwarf spectra, molecular opacities, and atmospheric models. The spectral shape of VHS 1256 b is influenced by disequilibrium chemistry and clouds. We directly detect silicate clouds, the first such detection reported for a planetary-mass companion

Comparative Phylogeography of a Coevolved Community: Concerted Population Expansions in Joshua Trees and Four Yucca Moths

Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community – Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial period, and the inferred demographic changes substantially predate Holocene climate changes

The JWST Early Release Science Program for Direct Observations of Exoplanetary Systems II: A 1 to 20 Micron Spectrum of the Planetary-Mass Companion VHS 1256-1257 b

We present the highest fidelity spectrum to date of a planetary-mass object. VHS 1256 b is a $<$20 M$_\mathrm{Jup}$ widely separated ($\sim$8\arcsec, a = 150 au), young, planetary-mass companion that shares photometric colors and spectroscopic features with the directly imaged exoplanets HR 8799 c, d, and e. As an L-to-T transition object, VHS 1256 b exists along the region of the color-magnitude diagram where substellar atmospheres transition from cloudy to clear. We observed VHS 1256~b with \textit{JWST}'s NIRSpec IFU and MIRI MRS modes for coverage from 1 $\mu$m to 20 $\mu$m at resolutions of $\sim$1,000 - 3,700. Water, methane, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, sodium, and potassium are observed in several portions of the \textit{JWST} spectrum based on comparisons from template brown dwarf spectra, molecular opacities, and atmospheric models. The spectral shape of VHS 1256 b is influenced by disequilibrium chemistry and clouds. We directly detect silicate clouds, the first such detection reported for a planetary-mass companion.Comment: Accepted ApJL Iterations of spectra reduced by the ERS team are hosted at this link: https://github.com/bemiles/JWST_VHS1256b_Reduction/tree/main/reduced_spectr

The JWST Early Release Science Program for Direct Observations of Exoplanetary Systems IV: NIRISS Aperture Masking Interferometry Performance and Lessons Learned

We present a performance analysis for the aperture masking interferometry (AMI) mode on board the James Webb Space Telescope Near Infrared Imager and Slitless Spectrograph (JWST/NIRISS). Thanks to self-calibrating observables, AMI accesses inner working angles down to and even within the classical diffraction limit. The scientific potential of this mode has recently been demonstrated by the Early Release Science (ERS) 1386 program with a deep search for close-in companions in the HIP 65426 exoplanetary system. As part of ERS 1386, we use the same dataset to explore the random, static, and calibration errors of NIRISS AMI observables. We compare the observed noise properties and achievable contrast to theoretical predictions. We explore possible sources of calibration errors, and show that differences in charge migration between the observations of HIP 65426 and point-spread function calibration stars can account for the achieved contrast curves. Lastly, we use self-calibration tests to demonstrate that with adequate calibration, NIRISS AMI can reach contrast levels of $\sim9-10$ mag. These tests lead us to observation planning recommendations and strongly motivate future studies aimed at producing sophisticated calibration strategies taking these systematic effects into account. This will unlock the unprecedented capabilities of JWST/NIRISS AMI, with sensitivity to significantly colder, lower mass exoplanets than ground-based setups at orbital separations inaccessible to JWST coronagraphy.Comment: 20 pages, 12 figures, submitted to AAS Journal