Probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)

In its most recent report on the annual probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the annual failure rate is calculated to be 1.3E({minus}7)(1/yr), rounded off from 1.32E({minus}7). A calculation by the Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) produces a result that is about 4% higher, namely 1.37E({minus}7)(1/yr). The difference is due to a minor error in the US Department of Energy (DOE) calculations in the Westinghouse 1996 report. WIPP`s hoist safety relies on a braking system consisting of a number of components including two crucial valves. The failure rate of the system needs to be recalculated periodically to accommodate new information on component failure, changes in maintenance and inspection schedules, occasional incidents such as a hoist traveling out-of-control, either up or down, and changes in the design of the brake system. This report examines DOE`s last two reports on the redesigned waste hoist system. In its calculations, the DOE has accepted one EEG recommendation and is using more current information about the component failures rates, the Nonelectronic Parts Reliability Data (NPRD). However, the DOE calculations fail to include the data uncertainties which are described in detail in the NPRD reports. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission recommended that a system evaluation include mean estimates of component failure rates and take into account the potential uncertainties that exist so that an estimate can be made on the confidence level to be ascribed to the quantitative results. EEG has made this suggestion previously and the DOE has indicated why it does not accept the NRC recommendation. Hence, this EEG report illustrates the importance of including data uncertainty using a simple statistical example

Modelling and forecasting the UK tourism growth cycle in Algarve

Over the past three decades, Portugal has developed a strong economic dependence on tourism, which has several implications for the country's overall economic development. Tourism is an activity that is interrelated strongly with the economic system since Portugal as a whole and specific regions in particular rely on the performance of tourism for their economic activity. Moreover, because economic cycles affect tourism development, it is highly vulnerable to economic fluctuations. Most tourists who visit Portugal are from the European Union, especially Western Europe. Statistics are based on the number of overnight stays in hotel accommodation and other similar establishments. In 2005, the main source markets were the UK (30.7%), Germany (16.5%), Spain (11.5%), the Netherlands (6.8%), France (4.7%), Ireland (3.6%) and Italy (3.1%). These values show that the UK has the greatest share of visitors to Algarve. The purpose of this paper is to propose a modelling approach that best fits the tourism flow pattern in order to support forecasting. The paper contributes to our understanding of the relationship between economic cycles and tourism flows to Portugal (Algarve) and explores the potential of applying the diffusion index model proposed by Stock and Watson (1999, 2002) for tourism demand forecasting

Large-Scale Structure at z~2.5

We have made a statistically complete, unbiased survey of C IV systems toward a region of high QSO density near the South Galactic Pole using 25 lines of sight spanning $1.5<z<2.8$. Such a survey makes an excellent probe of large-scale structure at early epochs. We find evidence for structure on the $15-35h^{-1}$ proper Mpc scale ($H_0 \equiv 100$ km $s^{-1}$ Mpc${-1}$) as determined by the two point C IV - C IV absorber correlation function, and reject the null hypothesis that C IV systems are distributed randomly on such scales at the $\sim 3.5\sigma$ level. The structure likely reflects the distance between two groups of absorbers subtending $\sim~ 13 \times 5 \times 21h^{-3}$ and $\sim 7 \times 1 \times 15h^{-3}$ Mpc$^3$ at $z\sim 2.3$ and $z \sim 2.5$ respectively. There is also a marginal trend for the association of high rest equivalent width C IV absorbers and QSOs at similar redshifts but along different lines of sight. The total number of C IV systems detected is consistent with that which would be expected based on a survey using many widely separated lines of sight. Using the same data, we also find 11 Mg II absorbers in a complete survey toward 24 lines of sight; there is no evidence for Mg II - Mg II or Mg II - QSO clustering, though the sample size is likely still small to detect such structure if it exists.Comment: 56 pages including 32 of figures, in gzip-ed uuencoded postscript format, 1 long table not included, aastex4 package. Accepted for publication in ApJ Supplement

Global Sourcing under Uncertainty

This paper develops a general equilibrium model of international trade in homogenous intermediate inputs. In the model, trade between countries is driven exclusively by uncertainty in the delivery of inputs. Because their managers are risk-averse, final good firms contract with multiple suppliers located in different countries in an attempt to decrease the variability of their profits. The analysis shows that risk diversification provides an incentive for international trade over and above such reasons as comparative advantages (emphasized in classical models of international trade) and economies of scale (emphasized in new trade models), and highlights a new channel – a reduction in uncertainty – through which trade liberalization increases welfare