MODEL TREE: AN APPLICATION IN REAL ESTATE APPRAISAL

In the last twenty years in real estate appraisal there has been a growing interest for new and reliable assessment techniques essentially through the introduction of pluriparametric estimate, in particular of linear regression. However, also these techniques seem having not a great deal of adherence to very complex markets, for which the detection of best suited techniques to investigate market segments is necessary. The aim of the research is to test the applicative possibilities of model tree to land market, in order to highlight possible market segments in the original data set not detectable a priori.data mining, model tree, multiple regression analysis, land market appraisal, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C01,

Urbanizzazione in chiave neoliberale e progetti di sviluppo a grande scala

La riscoperta di alcuni valori sociali, economici e culturali introdotti dal neoliberalismo di fine secolo ha richiesto la riformulazione di nuovi concetti, obiettivi e metodologie sulle innovazioni della città post-moderna. Essa è chiamata ad assolvere la funzione di città “intelligente” (smart city) soprattutto in riferimento all’organizzazione territoriale, con l’obiettivo di mettere più direttamente in comunicazione la realtà locale con quella globale, soprattutto in tema di politiche strutturali. I progetti comunitari sul recepimento delle innovazioni con cui la globalizzazione elabora le proprie strategie nei confronti del locale individuano nella città medie il centro-motore primario dell’organizzazione territoriale, grazie ad almeno due fattori di straordinario impatto: l’attrattività e la competitività. Tuttavia, la riconosciuta perdita di competitività dell’economia locale, dunque dei sistemi locali dello sviluppo (SLoT), rende più problematico il rapporto locale/globale. Questo si verifica quando il soggetto chiamato in causa, in tal caso l’area vasta, si mostra incapace di valorizzare le proprie risorse mediante l’adattamento e l’integrazione delle priorità tematiche individuate dalle politiche comunitarie (5° e 6° Programma quadro): qualità della vita e gestione delle risorse biologiche; b) società dell’informazione conviviale; c) crescita competitiva e sostenibile; d) energia, ambiente e sviluppo sostenibile. L’obiettivo di questo contributo è quello di fornire spunti di riflessione affinché le risorse di area vasta siano utilizzate in sintonia con le priorità comunitarie. Tali risorse, di natura materiale, immateriale, naturale e umana, se correttamente integrate, possono conciliare le logiche del cambiamento imposte dall’apertura alla globalizzazione con quelle impegnate a difendere e tutelare l’identità storicoculturale del contesto locale, offrendo un contributo decisivo alla valorizzazione del territorio, quindi alla costruzione di un’economia locale proiettata verso il globale

New Value to Wool: Innovative Garments for Preservation of Sheep Landraces in Italy

In Basilicata, southern Italy, a sheep landrace jeopardized of extinction is Gentile di Puglia due to low production levels, low market values of milk and meat, and replacement of wool with synthetic fibers. Due to these dynamics farmers progressively resort to intensive breeding systems, hence causing the gradual disappearance of the ovine sector, the withering of traditional breeding culture and the abandonment of internal and marginal territories. However, in changing climate, traditional agriculture is getting increased attention worldwide by the consumers who are embracing emerging sustainable food production. Thus, in the light of a possible conservation strategy, the study investigates the prospective market for a garment (pullover) produced with wool from Gentile di Puglia, and woven through traditional techniques. An integrated methodological approach based on choice experiments and Bass diffusion model was carried out in order to analyze the consumers’ preferences, the penetration market of this innovative product and the new wool value for farmers. The results pointed out a potential demand focused on women aged 50 years and more and a recognized wool value to farmers of 55   animal1 (22   kg1). This new revenue could allow the reduction of the difference in gross margin between the Gentile di Puglia and the non-autochthonous intensively-farmed Comisana from 57% to 3%. The production of further wool garments for a wider demand could increase the economic sustainability of Gentile di Puglia, making it even more preferable than other highly productive breeds

Model tree: An application in Real Estate Appraisal

In the last twenty years in real estate appraisal there has been a growing interest for new and reliable assessment techniques essentially through the introduction of pluriparametric estimate, in particular of linear regression. However, also these techniques seem having not a great deal of adherence to very complex markets, for which the detection of best suited techniques to investigate market segments is necessary. The aim of the research is to test the applicative possibilities of model tree to land market, in order to highlight possible market segments in the original data set not detectable a priori

High-voltage overhead transmission lines and farmland value: Evidences from the real estate market in Apulia, southern Italy

The construction of high-voltage overhead transmission lines on farmland implies a permanent easement, involving expropriation of land and depreciation of the remaining farm area. The Italian system operator should pay compensation for both aspects, but recognizes only the former. Therefore, landowners often appeal to the law courts and claim compensation for the depreciation of the entire non-occupied area, often obliging the system operator to pay substantial amounts. This delays the provision of new power lines and increases their respective costs. In order to verify the correctness of the modus operandi by the system operator and landowners, a study was carried out into the impact of several characteristics of power lines on farmland value in northern Apulia, south Italy. The results highlighted that the area occupied by plinths and cabins, the height of towers and the type of intersection were the main sources of depreciation, which varies depending on the crop. Moreover, depreciation on the residual area exists, but only involves two narrow strips of land on either side of infrastructure. Finally, it is not constant, but tends to decrease rapidly as the distance from the infrastructure increases, and zeroes at 30–70 m from the power line

The choice experiment and the stochastic profit frontier: A methodological approach for groundwater preservation policies

Apulia is the fifth Italian region in terms of irrigated area and irrigation water used in agriculture. However, inefficiencies in the management of the regional irrigation consortia force most of farmers to use groundwater by private wells, with negative consequences on soil and crop characteristics, and with grave desertification risk. In the first instance, through a choice experiment survey, the study investigated the aptitude of the regional farmers toward the abandonment of their farm wells in exchange for an improved consortium irrigation network and additional services. Then, through a stochastic profit frontier, the impact of these choices was assessed on the economic performance of farms, providing useful information for suitable and fair groundwater preservation policies

Data mining in real estate appraisal: a model tree and multivariate adaptive regression spline approach

In this paper we adopt two exploratory modelling techniques: Model Trees and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines. The objective is the building of two sale price prediction models in order to highlight possible market segments not detectable a priori. We show how these novel procedures can help to understand complex patterns and interactions among predictors in real estate appraisal

How does the land market capitalize environmental, historical and cultural components in rural areas? Evidences from Italy

Farmland can supply a wide variety of ecosystem services, i.e. provision of food and fibre, as well as regulating, supporting, recreational, aesthetic and cultural services. In addition, farmland can be characterized by the presence of anthropic elements, i.e. archaeological sites and historical rural buildings, from which the community can obtain further non-material benefits, namely cultural heritage values, recreation and tourism, etc. However, all these services and land components can be strongly influenced by different levels of farming intensity, a condition that can damage their capacity to supply the related functions (public goods). Such land-market failures could be adjusted by acquiring information on how the above non-farming characteristics, i.e. environmental, historical and cultural determinants, are capitalized in farmland value when farming intensity varies. To this aim, a real estate survey was carried out in Italy in order to investigate the land market of traded farms cultivated under specific crops and located in two areas with different levels of farming intensity. The analysis considered farming and non-farming determinants of selling price and used a hedonic model method based on the ordinary least squares regression corrected for spatial autocorrelation. The results highlighted that the farming determinants were capitalized in selling price as expected in both areas, while the impacts of the non-farming characteristics were extremely diversified between the areas. In the extensively farmed area, the environmental, historical and cultural determinants tended to be positively capitalized, thus favouring their preservation. However, in the intensively farmed area, these were positively or negatively capitalized according to whether or not their overexploitation could allow increased yields, respectively. In yet other cases, some non-farming determinants were not capitalized at all in either area. These trends provided useful insights for the design of ad hoc market-based schemes able to enhance land market functioning and the maintenance of these components in agricultural areas with different levels of farming intensity

Measuring the financial sustainability of vine landraces for better conservation programmes of Mediterranean agro-biodiversity

The Apulia region, in southern Italy, has a long tradition of vine cultivation for winemaking. However, in the last decades, regional farmers substituted local landraces with more productive non-native varieties. Regional institutions introduced regulations aimed at preventing the extinction of the local and historic ecotypes in the form of financial subsidies to reduce planting and operating costs. In this paper, we compared the financial sustainability of a non-autochthone, a typical and a landrace variety for wine production, in intensive and semi-extensive cultivation systems, with and without financial supports. The analysis referred to northern Apulia, considering a 26-year economic duration of vineyards. The results showed that the non-autochthone variety was more profitable due to its higher yields, while investments regarding landrace-based plants were characterized by lower economic convenience, despite financial aid. These estimates shed light on the effectiveness and efficacy of the present regulations, as well as on the development of future strategies for a better restoration of vine landraces in Apulia. This new framework will help to increase farmers’ profits, improve environmental conditions for the community and ensure higher quality, security and safety for consumers

The assessment of compensation for the electric transmission line easement through a study of land market in Apulia

High-voltage overhead transmission lines on farmland imply a permanent easement. System operators should compensate for expropriation of land and depreciation of the remaining farm area, but recognize only the former. Therefore, landowners often appeal to the law courts for fairer refunds.This study highlights that the area occupied by plinths and cabins, the height of pylons and the type of intersection are the main sources of depreciation. Moreover, electric transmission lines depreciate the residual farm area, but involving only two narrow strips of land on either side of infrastructures. Finally, the depreciation tends to decrease rapidly as the distance from the transmission line increases