Engineering nano-drug biointerface to overcome biological barriers toward precision drug delivery

The rapid advancement of nanomedicine and nanoparticle (NP) materials presents novel solutions potentially capable of revolutionizing health care by improving efficacy, bioavailability, drug targeting, and safety. NPs are intriguing when considering medical applications because of their essential and unique qualities, including a significantly higher surface to mass ratio, quantum properties, and the potential to adsorb and transport drugs and other compounds. However, NPs must overcome or navigate several biological barriers of the human body to successfully deliver drugs at precise locations. Engineering the drug carrier biointerface can help overcome the main biological barriers and optimize the drug delivery in a more personalized manner. This review discusses the significant heterogeneous biological delivery barriers and how biointerface engineering can promote drug carriers to prevail over hurdles and navigate in a more personalized manner, thus ushering in the era of Precision Medicine. We also summarize the nanomedicines' current advantages and disadvantages in drug administration, from natural/synthetic sources to clinical applications. Additionally, we explore the innovative NP designs used in both non-personalized and customized applications as well as how they can attain a precise therapeutic strategy

eIF6 as a Promising Diagnostic and Prognostic Biomarker for Poorer Survival of Cutaneous Melanoma

Background: Skin cutaneous melanoma (SKCM) is the deadliest skin cancer and has the most rapidly increasing incidences among all cancer types. Previous research elucidated that melanoma can only be successfully treated with surgical abscission in the early stage. Therefore, reliable and specific biomarkers are crucial to melanoma diagnosis since it often looks like nevi in the clinical manifestations. Moreover, identifying key genes contributing to melanoma progression is also highly regarded as a potential strategy for melanoma therapy. In this respect, translation initiator eIF6 has been proved as a pro-tumor factor in several cancers. However, the role of eIF6 in the skin cutaneous melanoma progression and its potential as a prognostic marker is still unexplored. Methods: The immunochemical analysis of clinical specimens were served to assess eIF6 expression levels. Gene Expression Profiling Interactive Analysis (GEPIA) database consultations allowed us to find the survival rates of the eIF6-overexpressed patients. eIF6 cellular effects were evaluated in an eIF6-overexpressed A375 cell line constructed with a lentivirus. The analysis of down-stream effectors or pathways was conducted using C-Bioportal and STRING databases. Results: Our results revealed that eIF6 was highly over-expressed in melanomas compared to normal skin specimens, and thus the abnormally high level of eIF6 can be a diagnostic marker for melanoma. The in silica analysis indicated that patients with eIF6 over-expression had lower survival rates than that low-expression in SKCM. Meanwhile, similar results also could be found in the other four types of cancers. In vitro, over-expression of eIF6 increased the proliferation and migration of melanoma cells. Correspondingly, pan-cancer clustering analysis indicated the expression level of intermediate filament proteins was correlated with that of eIF6 expression. In our study, all over-expressed keratin proteins, in accordance with over-expressed eIF6, had a negative correlation with melanoma prognosis. Moreover, the decreased methylation level of keratin genes suggested a new potential regulation mode of eIF6. Conclusions: The up-regulated eIF6 could be a potential diagnostic and prognostic biomarker of melanoma. This study also provides insights into the potential role of eIF6 in pan-cancer epigenetic regulation

Human EVI2B acts as a Janus-faced oncogene/antioncogene by differently affecting as per cancer type neoplastic cells growth and immune infiltration

Objectives: The EVI2B (Ecotropic Viral Integration Site 2B) gene encodes a transmembrane glycoprotein pivotal in immunocytes maturation. Recent evidence implicated EV12B’s expression with human colon cancer progression. However, EVI2B’s downstream pathways affecting tumor growth and tumor-infiltrating cells remain unclear. Methods: We first studied the diagnostic and prognostic value of EVI2B in pan-cancers by utilizing a series of in silico tools and clinical samples. Then we identified the modulated transcriptional expression and DNA methylation in high EVI2B’s expression groups of the same three cancers. We verified via RT-PCR the effect of stable EVI2B knock-down on the expression of JAK/STAT-related genes in two immune cell lines and the acceleration of proliferation in four cancer cell lines. Finally, the regulation of leukocyte infiltration was studied using TIMER. Results: In SKCM and LUAD a heightened EVI2B’s expression promoted a better prognosis. Conversely, in LGG EVI2B’s upregulation concurred with a worse prognosis. EVI2B silencing enhanced the proliferation of the tumor cell lines. The hypermethylated genome strengthened EVI2B’s Janus-like effect in high EVI2B expressing SKCM and LUAD tumors. While the total DNA methylation was lower in high EVI2B expressing LGG. Further analysis revealed that multiple EVI2B-involved down-stream JAK-STAT genes also exhibited the Janus-like feature in SKCM, LUAD and LGG progression. Correspondingly, anti-tumor leukocytes infiltrated EVI2B high expressing SKCM and LUAD while more pro-tumor ones penetrated into EVI2B heightened LGG. Conclusions: EVI2B acts as a Janus-faced oncogene/antioncogene by differently affecting neoplastic cell proliferation rates and tumor-promoting or tumor-hindering immunocytes’ infiltration

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The Critical Role of Small RNAs in Regulating Plant Innate Immunity

Plants, due to their sessile nature, have an innate immune system that helps them to defend against different pathogen infections. The defense response of plants is composed of a highly regulated and complex molecular network, involving the extensive reprogramming of gene expression during the presence of pathogenic molecular signatures. Plants attain proper defense against pathogens through the transcriptional regulation of genes encoding defense regulatory proteins and hormone signaling pathways. Small RNAs are emerging as versatile regulators of plant development and act in different tiers of plant immunity, including pathogen-triggered immunity (PTI) and effector-triggered immunity (ETI). The versatile regulatory functions of small RNAs in plant growth and development and response to biotic and abiotic stresses have been widely studied in recent years. However, available information regarding the contribution of small RNAs in plant immunity against pathogens is more limited. This review article will focus on the role of small RNAs in innate immunity in plants

High-Throughput Sequencing Reveals Novel microRNAs Involved in the Continuous Flowering Trait of Longan (<i>Dimocarpus longan</i> Lour.)

A major determinant of fruit production in longan (Dimocarpus longan Lour.) is the difficulty of blossoming. In this study, high-throughput microRNA sequencing (miRNA-Seq) was carried out to compare differentially expressed miRNAs (DEmiRNAs) and their target genes between a continuous flowering cultivar ‘Sijimi’ (SJ), and a unique cultivar ‘Lidongben’ (LD), which blossoms only once in the season. Over the course of our study, 1662 known miRNAs and 235 novel miRNAs were identified and 13,334 genes were predicted to be the target of 1868 miRNAs. One conserved miRNA and 29 new novel miRNAs were identified as differently expressed; among them, 16 were upregulated and 14 were downregulated. Through the KEGG pathway and cluster analysis of DEmiRNA target genes, three critical regulatory pathways, plant–pathogen interaction, plant hormone signal transduction, and photosynthesis-antenna protein, were discovered to be strongly associated with the continuous flowering trait of the SJ. The integrated correlation analysis of DEmiRNAs and their target mRNAs revealed fourteen important flowering-related genes, including COP1-like, Casein kinase II, and TCP20. These fourteen flowering-related genes were targeted by five miRNAs, which were novel-miR137, novel-miR76, novel-miR101, novel-miR37, and csi-miR3954, suggesting these miRNAs might play vital regulatory roles in flower regulation in longan. Furthermore, novel-miR137 was cloned based on small RNA sequencing data analysis. The pSAK277-miR137 transgenic Arabidopsis plants showed delayed flowering phenotypes. This study provides new insight into molecular regulation mechanisms of longan flowering

Ectopic Overexpression of a Novel R2R3-MYB, NtMYB2 from Chinese Narcissus Represses Anthocyanin Biosynthesis in Tobacco

R2R3 MYB transcription factors play key functions in the regulation of secondary metabolites. In the present study, a R2R3 MYB transcriptional factor NtMYB2 was identified from Chinese narcissus (Narcissus tazetta L. var. Chinensis Roem) and functionally characterized. NtMYB2 belongs to subgroup 4 of the R2R3 MYB transcription factor family that are related to repressor MYBs involved in the regulation of anthocyanin and flavonoids. Transient expression confirmed that NtMYB2 strongly reduced the red pigmentation induced by MYB- anthocyanin activators in agro-infiltrated tobacco leaves. Ectopic expression of NtMYB2 in tobacco significantly reduced the pigmentation and altered the floral phenotypes in transgenic tobacco flowers. Gene expression analysis suggested that NtMYB2 repressed the transcript levels of structural genes involved in anthocyanin biosynthesis pathway, especially the UFGT gene. NtMYB2 gene is expressed in all examined narcissus tissues; the levels of transcription in petals and corona is higher than other tissues and the transcription level at the bud stage was highest. These results show that NtMYB2 is involved in the regulation of anthocyanin biosynthesis pathway and may act as a repressor by down regulating the transcripts of key enzyme genes in Chinese narcissus

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.</p