Implementing an ecosystem oceanography program to increase capacity and preparedness for dynamic ocean management and fishery challenges

Building resilience in coastal resources and related communities is improved by a holistic ecosystem research approach for integrating socioecological system components; a key challenge in this process is capturing dynamic interactions between components. We present an application of ecosystem oceanography to address goals of marine conservation and management, including climate readiness and supporting a blue economy. Treating the ecosystem as the sample unit is fundamental to our research program. Specifically, spatiotemporal structure of relationships among taxa themselves is the study subject, not the individual members. Our approach outlines four steps toward successful implementation: 1) Build a conceptual ecosystem-oceanography model informed by previous science and human dimensions research to test hypotheses and identify gaps in our understanding; 2) Design survey and adaptive monitoring efforts, including data sharing protocols, to capture the spatiotemporal processes of ecosystem structure; 3) Use diet data and spatiotemporal variability in trophic interactions to quantify processes influencing ecosystem function, including persistent hotspots of abundance, biodiversity, and trophic transfer; 4) Link empirically-determined processes to improve parameterization of biophysical models to enable evaluation of ecosystem structure and functionality retrospectively and prospectively. Accomplishing these objectives requires a transdisciplinary team and will enable evaluation of specific management goals, develop indicators for tracking progress towards meeting them, and carry out scenario evaluation under near-term and long-term scenarios that explore key uncertainties (e.g., future climate and policy directions). We apply this four-step approach to identify key drivers for recent ecosystem and fishery surprises in the California Current Ecosystem. We propose this approach offers a means for anticipating future ecosystem states and increasing preparedness and capacity to overcome fishery surprises, and in doing so supporting the development of management approaches that are robust to uncertainty

Western Gull Foraging Behavior as an Ecosystem State Indicator in Coastal California

With accelerating climate variability and change, novel approaches are needed to warn managers of changing ecosystem state and to identify appropriate management actions. One strategy is using indicator species—like seabirds as ecosystem sentinels—to monitor changes in marine environments. Here, we explore the utility of western gulls (Larus occidentalis) breeding on Southeast Farallon Island as a proxy of ecosystem state in coastal California by investigating the interannual variability in gull foraging behavior from 2013 to 2019 in relation to upwelling conditions, prey abundances, and overlap with humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) as gulls frequently feed in association with whales. Western gulls have a flexible diet and forage on land and at-sea. We combined gull GPS tracking data during the incubation phase, ecosystem survey data on multiple predator and prey species, and derived oceanographic upwelling products. When foraging at sea, gulls overlapped with cool upwelled waters. During 2015–2017, 25% more gull foraging trips visited land than in other years, where land trips were on average ∼8 h longer and 40% further than sea trips, which coincided with high compression of coastally upwelled waters (habitat compression) in 2015–2016. Gull foraging behavior was related to local prey abundances, where more foraging occurred near shore or on land when prey abundances were low. However, visual surveys indicated that ∼70% of humpback whale observations co-occurred with gulls, and the year with the most foraging on land (2017) corresponded to regionally low relative whale abundances, suggesting gull movement patterns could be an indicator of whale presence. Further, both whales and gulls forage near-shore under high upwelling habitat compression and low krill abundance. Hence, the deployment of year-round tags on gulls with the capability of near real-time data accessibility could provide important fine-scale metrics for conservation and management of the threatened yet recovering eastern Pacific humpback whale population between infrequent and coarse surveys. Entanglement in fishing gear and ship strikes are major inhibitors to whale recovery and have increased concomitantly with human use of ocean resources. Moreover, as climate variability and change increase, novel indicators should be explored and implemented to inform marine spatial planning and protect species across multiple scales from new risks

From individual responses to population effects : integrating a decade of multidisciplinary research on blue whales and sonar

Funding: Office of Naval Research (GrantNumber(s): N00014-19-1-2464).As ecosystems transform under climate change and expanding human activities, multidisciplinary integration of empirical research, conceptual frameworks and modelling methods is required to predict, monitor and manage the cascading effects on wildlife populations. For example, exposure to anthropogenic noise can lead to changes in the behaviour and physiology of individual marine mammals, but management is complicated by uncertainties on the long-term effects at a population level. We build on a decade of diverse efforts to demonstrate the strengths of integrating research on multiple stressors for assessing population-level effects. Using the case study of blue whales exposed to military sonar in the eastern north Pacific, we model how behavioural responses and environmental effects induced by climate change affect female survival and reproductive success. Environmental changes were predicted to severely affect vital rates, while the current regime of sonar activities was not. Simulated disturbance had a stronger effect on reproductive success than adult survival, as predicted by life-history theory. We show that information on prey resources is critical for robust predictions, as are data on baseline behavioural patterns, energy budgets, body condition and contextual responses to noise. These results will support effective management of the interactions between sonar operations and blue whales in the study area, while providing pragmatic guidance for future data collection to reduce key uncertainties. Our study provides important lessons for the successful integration of multidisciplinary research to inform the assessment of the effects of noise and other anthropogenic stressors on marine predator populations in the context of a changing environment.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Linking predators to seasonality of upwelling: Using food web indicators and path analysis to infer trophic connections

Upwelling in eastern boundary current systems is a primary driver of ecosystem productivity. Typically, peak upwelling occurs during spring and summer, but winter upwelling may also be important to ecosystem functions. In this study, we investigated the hypothesis that winter and spring/summer upwelling, operating through indirect trophic interactions, are important to a suite of top predators in the California Current. To test this hypothesis, we collated information on upwelling, chlorophyll-a concentrations, zooplankton and forage fish, and related these to predator responses including rockfish growth, salmon abundance, seabird productivity and phenology (timing of egg-laying), and whale abundance. Seabird diets served in part as food web indicators. We modeled pathways of response using path analysis and tested for significance of the dominant paths with multiple regression. We found support for the hypothesis that relationships between upwelling and top predator variables were mediated primarily by intermediate trophic levels. Both winter and summer upwelling were important in path models, as were intermediate lower and mid trophic level functional groups represented by chlorophyll-a, zooplankton, and forage fish. Significant pathways of response explained from 50% to 80% of the variation of seabird (Cassin’s auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) and common murre (Uria aalge)), humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) and Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) dependent variables, whereas splitnose rockfish (Sebastes diploproa) showed no significant response pathways. Upwelling and trophic responses for salmon were established for both the year of ocean entry and the year of return, with zooplankton important in the year of ocean entry and forage fish important in the year of return. This study provides one of the first comparative investigations between upwelling and predators, from fish to marine mammals and birds within a geographically restricted area, demonstrates often difficult to establish "bottom-up" trophic interactions, and establishes the importance of seasonality of upwelling to various trophic connections and predator demographic traits. Understanding change in the seasonality of upwelling is therefore required to assess dynamics of commercially and recreationally important upper trophic level species in eastern boundary current ecosystems

Identifying seasonal distribution patterns of fin whales across the Scotia Sea and the Antarctic Peninsula region using a novel approach combining habitat suitability models and ensemble learning methods

Following their near extirpation by industrial whaling of the 20th century, the population status of Southern Hemisphere fin whales (SHFW) remains unknown. Systematic surveys estimating fin whale abundance in the Southern Ocean are not yet available. Records of fin whale sightings have been collected by a variety of organisations over the past few decades, incorporating both opportunistic data and dedicated survey data. Together, these isolated data sets represent a potentially valuable source of information on the seasonality, distribution and abundance of SHFW. We compiled records across 40 years from the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea from multiple sources and used a novel approach combining ensemble learning and a maximum entropy model to estimate abundance and distribution of SHFW in this region. Our results show a seasonal distribution pattern with pronounced centres of distribution from January-March along the West Antarctic Peninsula. Our new approach allowed us to estimate abundance of SHFW for discrete areas from a mixed data set of mainly opportunistic presence only data

Application of a data-assimilative regional ocean modeling system for assessing California Current System ocean conditions, krill, and juvenile rockfish interannual variability

Abstract To be robust and informative, marine ecosystem models and assessments require parameterized biophysical relationships that rely on realistic water column characteristics at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. We examine how hydrographic properties off California from 1990 through 2010 during late winter and spring correspond to krill and juvenile rockfish (Sebastes spp.) abundances. We evaluated coherence among temperature, salinity, depth of 26.0 potential density isopycnal, and stratification strength at regionally and monthly time scales derived from shipboard and mooring observations, and a data-assimilative Regional Ocean Model System reanalysis. The reanalysis captures spatiotemporal physical variability of coastal ocean conditions in winter and spring months and elucidates mechanisms connecting the spatial and temporal upwelling and transport dynamics on observed krill and rockfish abundances in spring. This provides evidence for a mechanistic connection between the phenology of upwelling in the California Current System and seasonal development of the shelf ecosystem

Identifying seasonal distribution patterns of fin whales across the Scotia Sea and the Antarctic Peninsula region using a novel approach combining habitat suitability models and ensemble learning methods

Following their near extirpation by industrial whaling of the 20th century, the population status of Southern Hemisphere fin whales (SHFW) remains unknown. Systematic surveys estimating fin whale abundance in the Southern Ocean are not yet available. Records of fin whale sightings have been collected by a variety of organisations over the past few decades, incorporating both opportunistic data and dedicated survey data. Together, these isolated data sets represent a potentially valuable source of information on the seasonality, distribution and abundance of SHFW. We compiled records across 40 years from the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea from multiple sources and used a novel approach combining ensemble learning and a maximum entropy model to estimate abundance and distribution of SHFW in this region. Our results show a seasonal distribution pattern with pronounced centres of distribution from January-March along the West Antarctic Peninsula. Our new approach allowed us to estimate abundance of SHFW for discrete areas from a mixed data set of mainly opportunistic presence only data.publishedVersio

Identifying seasonal distribution patterns of fin whales across the Scotia Sea and the Antarctic Peninsula region using a novel approach combining habitat suitability models and ensemble learning methods

Following their near extirpation by industrial whaling of the 20th century, the population status of Southern Hemisphere fin whales (SHFW) remains unknown. Systematic surveys estimating fin whale abundance in the Southern Ocean are not yet available. Records of fin whale sightings have been collected by a variety of organisations over the past few decades, incorporating both opportunistic data and dedicated survey data. Together, these isolated data sets represent a potentially valuable source of information on the seasonality, distribution and abundance of SHFW. We compiled records across 40 years from the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea from multiple sources and used a novel approach combining ensemble learning and a maximum entropy model to estimate abundance and distribution of SHFW in this region. Our results show a seasonal distribution pattern with pronounced centres of distribution from January-March along the West Antarctic Peninsula. Our new approach allowed us to estimate abundance of SHFW for discrete areas from a mixed data set of mainly opportunistic presence only data

State of the California Current 2014-15: Impacts of the Warm-Water "Blob"

In 2014, the California Current (~28˚–48˚N) saw average, or below average, coastal upwelling and relatively low productivity in most locations, except from 38˚–43˚N during June and July. Chlorophyll-a levels were low throughout spring and summer at most locations, except in a small region around 39˚N. Catches of juvenile rockfish (an indicator of upwelling-related fish species) remained high throughout the area surveyed (32˚–43˚N). In the fall of 2014, as upwelling ceased, many locations saw an unprecedented increase in sea surface temperatures (anomalies as large as 4˚C), particularly at 45˚N due to the coastal intrusion of an extremely anomalous pool of warm water. This warm surface anomaly had been building offshore in the Gulf of Alaska since the fall of 2013, and has been referred to as the “blob.” Values of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO) continued to climb during 2014, indicative of the increase in warm coastal surface waters, whereas the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index (NPGO) saw a slight rebound to more neutral values (indicative of average productivity levels) during 2014. During spring 2015, the upwelling index was slightly higher than average for locations in the central and northern region, but remained below average at latitudes south of 35˚N. Chlorophyll a levels were slightly higher than average in ~0.5˚ latitude patches north of 35˚N, whereas productivity and phytoplankton biomass were low south of Pt. Conception. Catches of rockfish remained high along most of the coast, however, market squid remained high only within the central coast (36˚–38˚N), and euphausiid abundance decreased everywhere, as compared to the previous year. Sardine and anchovy were nearly absent from the southern portion of the California Current system (CCS), whereas their larvae were found off the coast of Oregon and Washington during winter for the first time in many years. Waters warmed dramatically in the southern California region due to a change in wind patterns similar to that giving rise to the blob in the broader northeast Pacific. For most of the coast, there were intrusions of species never found before or found at much higher abundances than usual, including fish, crustaceans, tunicates and other gelatinous zooplankton, along with other species often indicative of an El Niño. Thus species richness was high in many areas given the close juxtaposition of coastal upwelling-related species with the offshore warm-water intrusive or El Niño-typical taxa. Thus the California Current by 2015 appears to have transitioned to a very different state than previous observations

State of the California Current 2013-14: El Niño Looming

In 2013, the California current was dominated by strong coastal upwelling and high productivity. Indices of total cumulative upwelling for particular coastal locations reached some of the highest values on record. Chlorophyll a levels were high throughout spring and summer. Catches of upwelling-related fish species were also high. After a moderate drop in upwelling during fall 2013, the California current system underwent a major change in phase. Three major basin-scale indicators, the PDO, the NPGO, and the ENSO-MEI, all changed phase at some point during the winter of 2013/14. The PDO changed to positive values, indicative of warmer waters in the North Pacific; the NPGO to negative values, indicative of lower productivity along the coast; and the MEI to positive values, indicative of an oncoming El Niño. Whereas the majority of the California Current system appears to have transitioned to an El Niño state by August 2014, based on decreases in upwelling and chlorophyll a concentration, and increases in SST, there still remained pockets of moderate upwelling, cold water, and high chlorophyll a biomass at various central coast locations, unlike patterns seen during the more major El Niños (e.g., the 97–98 event). Catches of rockfish, market squid, euphausiids, and juvenile sanddab remained high along the central coast, whereas catches of sardine and anchovy were low throughout the CCS. 2014 appears to be heading towards a moderate El Niño state, with some remaining patchy regions of upwelling-driven productivity along the coast. Superimposed on this pattern, three major regions have experienced possibly non-El Niño-related warming since winter: the Bering Sea, the Gulf of Alaska, and offshore of southern California. It is unclear how this warming may interact with the predicted El Niño, but the result will likely be reduced growth or reproduction for many key fisheries species