Forecasting the maximum compensation offer in the automobile BI claims negotiation proces.

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Groupwise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.bodily injury claims compensation, negotiation process, generalized confidence intervals.

"The influence of decision-maker effort and case complexity on appealed rulings subject to multi-categorical selection"

This study extends the standard econometric treatment of appellate court outcomes by 1) considering the role of decision-maker effort and case complexity, and 2) adopting a multi-categorical selection process of appealed cases. We find evidence of appellate courts being affected by both the effort made by first-stage decision makers and case complexity. This illustrates the value of widening the narrowly defined focus on heterogeneity in individual-specific preferences that characterises many applied studies on legal decision-making. Further, the majority of appealed cases represent non-random sub-samples and the multi-categorical selection process appears to offer advantages over the more commonly used dichotomous selection models.Appeal, Decision-maker effort, Case complexity, Selection bias. JEL classification:K41, C34

Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II

Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project (CEIOPS, 2007) a statistical model is here implemented for RBNS reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical compensation cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The BI severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because empirical evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of injured individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology can improve the accuracy of RBNS reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners.Automobile accident, Solvency II, bodily injury claims, individual RBNS reserve..

Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case

Bodily injury claims have the greatest impact on the claim costs of motor insurance companies. The disability severity of motor claims is assessed in numerous European countries by means of score systems. In this paper a zero inflated generalized Poisson regression model is implemented to estimate the disability severity score of victims in-volved in motor accidents on Spanish roads. We show that the injury severity estimates may beautomatically converted into financial terms by insurers at any point of the claim handling process. As such, the methodology described may be used by motor insurers operating in the Spanish market to monitor the size of bodily injury claims. By using insurance data, various applications are presented in which the score estimate of disability severity is of value to insurers, either for computing the claim compensation or for claim reserve purposes.Motor accident, disability severity, zero-inflated generalized Poisson model, disability scoring scale.

Discrete distributions when modeling the disability severity score of motor victims

Many European states apply score systems to evaluate the disability severity of non-fatal motor victims under the law of third-party liability. The score is a non-negative integer with an upper bound at 100 that increases with severity. It may be automatically converted into financial terms and thus also reflects the compensation cost for disability. In this paper, discrete regression models are applied to analyze the factors that influence the disability severity score of victims. Standard and zero-altered regression models are compared from two perspectives: an interpretation of the data generating process and the level of statistical fit. The results have implications for traffic safety policy decisions aimed at reducing accident severity. An application using data from Spain is provided.Hurdle discrete data models, zero-inflated distribution, generalized method of moments, personal injuries, disability rating scale. JEL classification:-

Determinants of the decision to appeal against motor bodily injury settlements awarded by Spanish trial courts

Automobile bodily injury disputes represent one of the main causes of litigation faced by Spanish Courts. In this paper a multinomial model is implemented to analyse which factors determine the decision to appeal against the verdicts of trial courts. Use of a dataset of motor insurance claims revealed differences between the determinants of a claimant’s decision to appeal and those of insurers. Among other results it is shown that discrepancies regarding the permanent disability sustained affect the insurer’s decision to appeal. In contrast, the claimant pays more attention to differences in the stated temporary disability. Conclusions are drawn regarding which factors could reduce the percentage of appealed cases

"Factors affecting hospital admission and recovery stay duration of in-patient motor victims in Spain"

Hospital expenses are a major cost driver of healthcare systems in Europe, with motor injuries being the leading mechanism of hospitalizations. This paper investigates the injury characteristics which explain the hospitalization of victims of traffic accidents that took place in Spain. Using a motor insurance database with 16,081 observations a generalized Tobit regression model is applied to analyse the factors that influence both the likelihood of being admitted to hospital after a motor collision and the length of hospital stay in the event of admission. The consistency of Tobit estimates relies on the normality of perturbation terms. Here a semi-parametric regression model was fitted to test the consistency of estimates, concluding that a normal distribution of errors cannot be rejected. Among other results, it was found that older men with fractures and injuries located in the head and lower torso are more likely to be hospitalized after the collision, and that they also have a longer expected length of hospital recovery stay.Body injuries, Heckit estimator, semi-parametric estimator, Hausman test JEL classification:C24, I10

Should Selection of the Optimum Stochastic Mortality Model Be Based on the Original or the Logarithmic Scale of the Mortality Rate?

Stochastic mortality models seek to forecast future mortality rates; thus, it is apparent that the objective variable should be the mortality rate expressed in the original scale. However, the performance of stochastic mortality models—in terms, that is, of their goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy—is often based on the logarithmic scale of the mortality rate. In this article, we examine whether the same forecast outcomes are obtained when the performance of mortality models is assessed based on the original and log scales of the mortality rate. We compare four different stochastic mortality models: the original Lee–Carter model, the Lee–Carter model with (log)normal distribution, the Lee–Carter model with Poisson distribution and the median Lee–Carter model. We show that the preferred model will depend on the scale of the objective variable, the selection criteria measure and the range of ages analysed

La Valoració del dany corporal a l'assegurança de l'automòbil: aplicacions i perspectives de futur

Atès que els accidents de trànsit són una de les principals causes de mortalitat entre la població catalana i l'europea, la recerca en l'àmbit de la valoració del dany corporal és fonamental per a les companyies asseguradores d'automòbils. És per això que l'autor centra l'obra en els dos principals problemes que es generen en les companyies asseguradores: el càlcul de reserves i la negociació de les quanties.Given that traffic accidents are one of the main causes of mortality among the Catalan and European population, current research on physical injury is fundamental for insurance companies. This is why the author discusses the two main problems arising for insurance companies: calculating reserves and negotiating sums

Estudio de interfases en óxidos complejos por técnicas avanzadas de microscopía electrónica

Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, leída el 07-05-2015Pequeños cambios a nivel atómico de la estructura, composición o estado electrónico de un material pueden producir sorprendentes efectos macroscópicos. En particular, en óxidos complejos basados en metales de transición, un gran número de fenómenos físicos como transiciones metal-aislante, magnetorresistencia colosal o multiferroicidad son extremadamente sensibles a estas variaciones. Por tanto, para abordar el estudio de sistemas con tales características, técnicas experimentales con capacidad de analizar materiales a escala atómica y en el espacio real se hacen indispensables. La microscopía electrónica de transmisión con barrido combinada con la espectroscopia de pérdida de energía de electrones (EELS) forman una pareja con posibilidades únicas para estos estudios. Estas técnicas han crecido enormemente desde el desarrollo del corrector de aberración esférica en la última década y su alta resolución espacial nos permite ahora estudiar átomos individuales. El uso de estos equipos supone una herramienta única para el estudio de sistemas complejos, más aún cuando la dimensionalidad se reduce a pocos nanómetros como en películas delgadas o interfaces. En estos casos, técnicas de difracción promediadas macroscópicamente pueden no ser suficientemente sensibles a los parámetros que rigen la física relevante y por tanto, la gran sensibilidad espacial de la microscopía electrónica supone una gran ventaja. El objetivo principal de este trabajo será precisamente establecer la conexión entre los mecanismos a nivel atómico y las propiedades físicas de una serie de sistemas basados en óxidos complejos cuidadosamente escogidos. Analizaremos en el espacio real fluctuaciones mínimas, casi por debajo del umbral de detectabilidad, responsables últimas del comportamiento macroscópico.En primer lugar, se ha estudiado como pequeñas concentraciones de vacantes de oxígeno, tanto inducidas mediante irradiación como intrínsecas al material, pueden determinar las propiedades físicas macroscópicas del sistema. Se ha observado cómo procesos de irradiación dan lugar a la formación de una capa de TiO con alto grado cristalino en la superficie de monocristales de TiO2 y como además pueden producir estados metálicos superficiales en un aislante de bandas como es el SrTiO3. Se ha analizado además como la reestructuración electrónica debida a la presencia de vacantes de oxígeno estructurales explica por primera vez el origen electroestático del bloqueo iónico en fronteras de grano de materiales con importantes aplicaciones energéticas. Se ha abordado también el estudio de pequeñas variaciones estructurales, en particular, distorsiones colectivas de la red de oxígeno en heteroestructuras de óxidos complejos y su relación con la aparición de estados físicos inexistentes en los materiales masivos. Se ha encontrado una correlación entre rotaciones del octaedro de oxígenos producidas por tensiones epitaxiales y la estabilización de una fase interfacial ferromagnética y conductora en superredes formadas por óxidos aislantes. Además, se ha extendido este análisis a sistemas más complejos como uniones túnel multiferroicas donde se ha obtenido la configuración de dominios ferroeléctricos midiendo las distorsiones en la red de oxígenos para cada celda unidad. Este estudio muestra una de las primeras observaciones experimentales de una configuración de dominios ferroeléctricos tipo head-to-head en capas ultra-delgadas. Se ha encontrado además la presencia de una carga de apantallamiento confinada a la pared de dominio que genera estados electrónicos accesibles en el interior de la barrera ferroeléctrica, proporcionando los mecanismos para estabilizar un tuneleamiento cuántico resonante.El continuo desarrollo de estas técnicas experimentales hace vislumbrar un futuro prometedor tanto para la ciencia de materiales como para la microscopía electrónica. La exploración a escala atómica de fenómenos físicos aún por desvelar está ahora, más que nunca a nuestro alcance.Fac. de Ciencias FísicasTRUEunpu