User's guide to an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability in Latin American countries

The authors develop an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability for several Latin American countries, drawing on the work of Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and Kaminsky (1988). They build a composite leading indicator that signals macroeconomic vulnerability, showing that, historically, crises tend to happen in certain"vulnerable"situations. Interested mainly in providing an operational tool, the authors use a different approach to the problem than Kaminsky did. First, they use fewer variables to generate the signals. Then, after the variables are aggregated, a signal is issued, depending on the behavior of the composite index. (Kaminsky's procedure was to generate signals with each variable and then aggregate them.) Their results are satisfactory both statistically and operationally. Statistically, Type I and II errors are smaller than those reported in previous papers. Operationally, this system of leading indicators is less costly to maintain, given fewer variables-which are widely available and reported with timeliness. The authors tested the models'out-of-sample predictive ability on crises that occurred after the first stage of their project was finished: Colombia (September 1998), Brazil (January 1999), and Ecuador (February 1999). In all cases the models correctly anticipated the speculative attacks. Moreover, Mexico's models, estimated with information available two years before the 1994 crisis, show that these signaling devices would have been useful for signaling the macroeconomic vulnerability before December 1994.Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Educational Technology and Distance Education,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Educational Technology and Distance Education,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Geographical Information Systems

Neural Network identification of halo white dwarfs

The white dwarf luminosity function has proven to be an excellent tool to study some properties of the galactic disk such as its age and the past history of the local star formation rate. The existence of an observational luminosity function for halo white dwarfs could provide valuable information about its age, the time that the star formation rate lasted, and could also constrain the shape of the allowed Initial Mass Functions (IMF). However, the main problem is the scarce number of white dwarfs already identified as halo stars. In this Letter we show how an artificial intelligence algorithm can be succesfully used to classify the population of spectroscopically identified white dwarfs allowing us to identify several potential halo white dwarfs and to improve the significance of its luminosity function.Comment: 15 pages, 3 postscript figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters, uses aasms4.st

The resolved star-formation relation in nearby active galactic nuclei

We present an analysis of the relation between star formation rate (SFR) surface density (sigmasfr) and mass surface density of molecular gas (sigmahtwo), commonly referred to as the Kennicutt-Schmidt (K-S) relation, at its intrinsic spatial scale, i.e. the size of giant molecular clouds (10-150 pc), in the central, high-density regions of four nearby low-luminosity active galactic nuclei (AGN). We used interferometric IRAM CO(1-0) and CO(2-1), and SMA CO(3-2) emission line maps to derive sigmahtwo and HST-Halpha images to estimate sigmasfr. Each galaxy is characterized by a distinct molecular SF relation at spatial scales between 20 to 200 pc. The K-S relations can be sub-linear, but also super-linear, with slopes ranging from 0.5 to 1.3. Depletion times range from 1 and 2Gyr, compatible with results for nearby normal galaxies. These findings are valid independently of which transition, CO(1-0), CO(2-1), or CO(3-2), is used to derive sigmahtwo. Because of star-formation feedback, life-time of clouds, turbulent cascade, or magnetic fields, the K-S relation might be expected to degrade on small spatial scales (<100 pc). However, we find no clear evidence for this, even on scales as small as 20 pc, and this might be because of the higher density of GMCs in galaxy centers which have to resist higher shear forces. The proportionality between sigmahtwo and sigmasfr found between 10 and 100 Msun/pc2 is valid even at high densities, 10^3 Msun/pc2. However, by adopting a common CO-to-H2 conversion factor (alpha_CO), the central regions of the galaxies have higher sigmasfr for a given gas column than those expected from the models, with a behavior that lies between the mergers/high-redshift starburst systems and the more quiescent star-forming galaxies, assuming that the first ones require a lower value of alpha_CO.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figures, Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Bile acids: Lipase-catalyzed synthesis of new hyodeoxycholic acid derivatives

In this work we present an efficient, environmentally friendly approach to the synthesis of a series of hyodeoxycholic acid derivatives applying Biocatalysis. Fifteen acetyl and ester derivatives, twelve of them new, were obtained through an enzymatic strategy in a fully regioselective way and in very good to excellent yield. In order to find the optimal reaction conditions, the influence of several parameters such as enzyme source, alcohol or acylating agent:substrate ratio, enzyme:substrate ratio, temperature and reaction solvent was considered. The excellent results obtained made this procedure very efficient, particularly considering the low amount of enzyme required. In addition, this methodology uses mild reaction conditions and has reduced environmental impact, making biocatalysis a suitable way to obtaining these bile acids derivatives.Fil: Chanquia, Santiago Nahuel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Unidad de Microanálisis y Métodos Físicos en Química Orgánica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Unidad de Microanálisis y Métodos Físicos en Química Orgánica; ArgentinaFil: Ripani, Erika Aldana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Unidad de Microanálisis y Métodos Físicos en Química Orgánica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Unidad de Microanálisis y Métodos Físicos en Química Orgánica; ArgentinaFil: Baldessari, Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Unidad de Microanálisis y Métodos Físicos en Química Orgánica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Unidad de Microanálisis y Métodos Físicos en Química Orgánica; ArgentinaFil: Garcia Liñares, Guadalupe Eugenia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Unidad de Microanálisis y Métodos Físicos en Química Orgánica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Unidad de Microanálisis y Métodos Físicos en Química Orgánica; Argentin

On the decorrelation filtering of RL05 GRACE data for global applications

In autumn 2012, the new release 05 (RL05) of monthly geopotencial spherical harmonics Stokes coefficients (SC) from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission was published. This release reduces the noise in high degree and order SC, but they still need to be filtered. One of the most common filtering processing is the combination of decorrelation and Gaussian filters. Both of them are parameters dependent and must be tuned by the users. Previous studies have analyzed the parameters choice for the RL05 GRACE data for oceanic applications, and for RL04 data for global application. This study updates the latter for RL05 data extending the statistics analysis. The choice of the parameters of the decorrelation filter has been optimized to: (1) balance the noise reduction and the geophysical signal attenuation produced by the filtering process; (2) minimize the differences between GRACE and model-based data; (3) maximize the ratio of variability between continents and oceans. The Gaussian filter has been optimized following the latter criteria. Besides, an anisotropic filter, the fan filter, has been analyzed as an alternative to the Gauss filter, producing better statistics.This work has been partly supported by two Spanish Projects from CGL2010-12153-E and AYA2010-22039-C02-01; and two from Generalitat Valenciana, GV/2013/144 and ACOMP-2013-068