Aging, work and the demographic dividend in South Asia

Much current interest in South Asia's population structure focuses on 'the working generation' (aged 15-60) and particularly on the 'youth' who could potentially deliver a 'demographic dividend', thereby solving the conundrum of population ageing in developing economies. In contrast to this idea and the related one underlying a wide range of development strategies, that reductions of poverty at younger ages will have a meaningful impact on poverty in old age, this paper will demonstrate, first, that older people’s paid and unpaid work is needed to realise the demographic dividend, second, that older people already play an important role in reducing family poverty and sustaining national economies and, third, that only age-specific policies can address poverty in old age

Increasing consumption, decreasing support: a multi-generational study of family relations among South Indian Chakkliyars

This article looks at intergenerational relations in two Chakkliyar neighbourhoods in rural Tamil Nadu. Post-1991 economic changes, together with longer-term changes in the rural economy and state policies, have significantly widened the customary ‘needs gap’ between younger and older generations by expanding the needs and aspirations of younger generations both absolutely and in comparison to the perceived needs of older people, whilst not providing them with the means to meet those needs. The declining demand for agricultural labour has not only constrained sons’ capacities to meet the needs of both their conjugal and natal families, but also severely undermined older people's livelihoods as they compete with younger people for agricultural work. The cause of the elderly Chakkliyars’ tenuous subsistence lies not with negligent sons but with the way their vulnerabilities are built into the structure of the economy, society and polity

Modeling for seasonal marked point processes: An analysis of evolving hurricane occurrences

Seasonal point processes refer to stochastic models for random events which are only observed in a given season. We develop nonparametric Bayesian methodology to study the dynamic evolution of a seasonal marked point process intensity. We assume the point process is a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and propose a nonparametric mixture of beta densities to model dynamically evolving temporal Poisson process intensities. Dependence structure is built through a dependent Dirichlet process prior for the seasonally-varying mixing distributions. We extend the nonparametric model to incorporate time-varying marks, resulting in flexible inference for both the seasonal point process intensity and for the conditional mark distribution. The motivating application involves the analysis of hurricane landfalls with reported damages along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts from 1900 to 2010. We focus on studying the evolution of the intensity of the process of hurricane landfall occurrences, and the respective maximum wind speed and associated damages. Our results indicate an increase in the number of hurricane landfall occurrences and a decrease in the median maximum wind speed at the peak of the season. Introducing standardized damage as a mark, such that reported damages are comparable both in time and space, we find that there is no significant rising trend in hurricane damages over time.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS796 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Election Forensics and the 2004 Venezuelan Presidential Recall Referendum as a Case Study

A referendum to recall President Hugo Ch\'{a}vez was held in Venezuela in August of 2004. In the referendum, voters were to vote YES if they wished to recall the President and NO if they wanted him to continue in office. The official results were 59% NO and 41% YES. Even though the election was monitored by various international groups including the Organization of American States and the Carter Center (both of which declared that the referendum had been conducted in a free and transparent manner), the outcome of the election was questioned by other groups both inside and outside of Venezuela. The collection of manuscripts that comprise this issue of Statistical Science discusses the general topic of election forensics but also focuses on different statistical approaches to explore, post-election, whether irregularities in the voting, vote transmission or vote counting processes could be detected in the 2004 presidential recall referendum. In this introduction to the Venezuela issue, we discuss the more recent literature on post-election auditing, describe the institutional context for the 2004 Venezuelan referendum, and briefly introduce each of the five contributions.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-STS379 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Meiotic irregularities in Alstroemeria andina var. Venustula (Alstroemeriaceae)

Alstroemeria andina Phil. var. venustula (Phil.) M. Muñoz (sub nom. A. andina Phil. subsp. venustula (Phil.) Ehr. Bayer) is a perennial, small herb, 5-16 cm tall, that occurs mainly at 2,800-3,700 meters above sea level, in populations of limited distribution from Argentina and Chile. The course of the meiosis was analyzed in a population of this taxon (2n = 2x = 16), and it proved to be highly irregular. It was characterized by presenting bridge and fragment configurations both at anaphases I and II. The highest number of bridges at anaphase I found in one cell was two, suggesting heterozygosity for as many as two paracentric inversions. Typical chiasmata were almost not detectable, even though they actually existed. The chiasma-like structures observed may be regarded as concealed chiasmata as it has been described in cryptochiasmate meiosis. A high frequency of tetrads with micronuclei was observed, implying significant levels of unbalanced gametes. Pollen stainability ranged between 28 and 30%. In Alstroemeria species the meiotic behaviour is highly regular, and the presence of rearrangements is very uncommon. The whole situation led us to suggest that some environmental factors have drastically affected the chromosome structure and the control of the meiotic process. The present study constitutes the first report of remarkable meiotic irregularities found in a wild population of this genus.Fil: Sanso, Andrea Mariel. Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Wulff, Arturo Federico. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Posterior moments and quantiles for the normal location model with Laplace prior

We derive explicit expressions for arbitrary moments and quantiles of the posterior distribution of the location parameter eta in the normal location model with Laplace prior, and use the results to approximate the posterior distribution of sums of independent copies of eta

Risk-talk: the politics of risk and its representation

Looking at the concept of risk from a cross-cultural perspective, the contributors challenge the Eurocentric frameworks within which notions of risk are more commonly considered. They argue that perceptions of danger, and sources of anxiety, are far more socially and culturally constructed – and far more contingent – than risk theorists generally admit. Topics covered include prostitutes in London; AIDS in Tanzania; the cease-fire in Northern Ireland; the volcanic eruptions in Montserrat; modernisation in Amazonia; and the BSE scare in Britain