Monitoring and Characterization of Arctic Sea Ice using Radar Altimetry

Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering (Environmental Science and Engineering)Launching CryoSat-2, which is a current radar altimeter mission for the monitoring of polar region enables to produce monthly based sea ice thickness since April 2010. The Sea ice thickness cannot be measured directly by satellite. Sea ice freeboard that is an elevation above sea level can be converted in to sea ice thickness by assuming hydrostatic equilibrium. Sea ice leads (e.g., linear cracks in sea ices) are regarded as sea surface tie points for the estimation of sea ice freeboard. Identifying the sea ice leads is one of the core factors to retrieve sea ice thickness. The surface elevation is estimated by the use of Threshold First maxima Retracker Algorithm (TFMRA) for a 40% threshold using CryoSat-2 L1b data and the leads are detected by machine learning approaches such as decision trees and random forest. The machine learning produces better accuracy for the sea ice thickness than previous simple thresholding approach, validating EM-31, airborne sea ice thickness observations. A novel method to overcome previous threshold based lead detection methods for identifying leads is developed, which is waveform mixture algorithm that linear mixture analysis is applied in terms of waveforms. The waveform mixture algorithm can distinguish leads without beam behavior parameters and backscatter sigma-0 but just use waveforms, which is less affected by updating baseline for CryoSat-2. In addition to the development of the algorithms, a scientific research is carried out. Causes for sea ice anomaly phenomenon in November 2016 is investigated. Eventually, sea ice the volume derived by thickness is used for the analysis of sea ice extent minimum in November 2016 and suggest a new insight of sea ice minimum phenomenon. Unlike sea ice extent, the sea ice volume is not a minimum in November 2016. However, since the base period for sea ice volume is short, it is hard to mention climatology of sea ice volume.ope

Prediction of monthly Arctic sea ice concentrations using satellite and reanalysis data based on convolutional neural networks

Changes in Arctic sea ice affect atmospheric circulation, ocean current, and polar ecosystems. There have been unprecedented decreases in the amount of Arctic sea ice due to global warming. In this study, a novel 1-month sea ice concentration (SIC) prediction model is proposed, with eight predictors using a deep-learning approach, convolutional neural networks (CNNs). This monthly SIC prediction model based on CNNs is shown to perform better predictions (mean absolute error - MAE - of 2.28 %, anomaly correlation coefficient - ACC - of 0.98, root-mean-square error - RMSE - of 5.76 %, normalized RMSE - nRMSE - of 16.15 %, and NSE - Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency - of 0.97) than a random-forest-based (RF-based) model (MAE of 2.45 %, ACC of 0.98, RMSE of 6.61 %, nRMSE of 18.64 %, and NSE of 0.96) and the persistence model based on the monthly trend (MAE of 4.31 %, ACC of 0.95, RMSE of 10.54 %, nRMSE of 29.17 %, and NSE of 0.89) through hindcast validations. The spatio-temporal analysis also confirmed the superiority of the CNN model. The CNN model showed good SIC prediction results in extreme cases that recorded unforeseen sea ice plummets in 2007 and 2012 with RMSEs of less than 5.0 %. This study also examined the importance of the input variables through a sensitivity analysis. In both the CNN and RF models, the variables of past SICs were identified as the most sensitive factor in predicting SICs. For both models, the SIC-related variables generally contributed more to predict SICs over ice-covered areas, while other meteorological and oceanographic variables were more sensitive to the prediction of SICs in marginal ice zones. The proposed 1-month SIC prediction model provides valuable information which can be used in various applications, such as Arctic shipping-route planning, management of the fishing industry, and long-term sea ice forecasting and dynamics

Arctic lead detection using a waveform mixture algorithm from CryoSat-2 data

We propose a waveform mixture algorithm to detect leads from CryoSat-2 data, which is novel and different from the existing threshold-based lead detection methods. The waveform mixture algorithm adopts the concept of spectral mixture analysis, which is widely used in the field of hyperspectral image analysis. This lead detection method was evaluated with high-resolution (250 m) MODIS images and showed comparable and promising performance in detecting leads when compared to the previous methods. The robustness of the proposed approach also lies in the fact that it does not require the rescaling of parameters (i.e., stack standard deviation, stack skewness, stack kurtosis, pulse peakiness, and backscatter sigma(0)), as it directly uses L1B waveform data, unlike the existing threshold-based methods. Monthly lead fraction maps were produced by the waveform mixture algorithm, which shows interannual variability of recent sea ice cover during 2011-2016, excluding the summer season (i.e., June to September). We also compared the lead fraction maps to other lead fraction maps generated from previously published data sets, resulting in similar spatiotemporal patterns

Detection of deterministic and probabilistic convection initiation using Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager data

The detection of convective initiation (CI) is very important because convective clouds bring heavy rainfall and thunderstorms that typically cause severe socio-economic damage. In this study, deterministic and probabilistic CI detection models based on decision trees (DT), random forest (RF), and logistic regression (LR) were developed using Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) data obtained from June to August 2016 over the Korean Peninsula. A total of 12 interest fields that contain brightness temperature, spectral differences of the brightness temperatures, and their time trends were used to develop CI detection models. While, in our study, the interest field of 11.2 mu m T-b was considered the most crucial for detecting CI in the deterministic models and the probabilistic RF model, the trispectral difference, i.e. (8.6-11.2 mu m)-(11.2-12.4 mu m), was determined to be the most important one in the LR model. The performance of the four models varied by CI case and validation data. Nonetheless, the DT model typically showed higher probability of detection (POD), while the RF model produced higher overall accuracy (OA) and critical success index (CSI) and lower false alarm rate (FAR) than the other models. The CI detection of the mean lead times by the four models were in the range of 20-40 min, which implies that convective clouds can be detected 30 min in advance, before precipitation intensity exceeds 35 dBZ over the Korean Peninsula in summer using the Himawari-8 AHI data

A novel framework of detecting convective initiation combining automated sampling, machine learning, and repeated model tuning from geostationary satellite data

This paper proposes a complete framework of a machine learning-based model that detects convective initiation (CI) from geostationary meteorological satellite data. The suggested framework consists of three main processes: (1) An automated sampling tool; (2) machine learning-based CI detection modelling; (3) repeated model tuning through validation. In this study, the automated sampling tool was able to track the CI objects iteratively, even without ancillary data such as an atmospheric motion vector (AMV). The collected samples were used to train the machine learning model for CI detection. Random forest (RF) was used to classify the CI and non-CI. To enhance the advantages of the machine learning approach, we adopted model tuning to iteratively update the training dataset from each validation result by adding hits and misses to the CI samples, and false alarms and correct negatives to the non-CI samples. Using 12 interest fields from the Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) over the Korean Peninsula, this simple and intuitive tuning process increased the overall probability of detection (POD) from 0.79 to 0.82 and decreased the overall false alarm rate (FAR) from 0.46 to 0.37 with around 40 min of the lead-time. Amongst the 12 interest fields, Tb(11.2) ??m was identified as the most significant predictor in the RF model, followed by Tb(8.6-11.2) ??m, and Tb(6.2-7.3) ??m. The effect of model tuning on the CI detection performance was also analyzed using spatiotemporal validation maps. By automatically collecting and updating the machine learning training dataset, the suggested framework is expected to help the maintenance of the CI detection model from an operational perspective

Estimation of Water Quality Index for Coastal Areas in Korea Using GOCI Satellite Data Based on Machine Learning Approaches

In Korea, most industrial parks and major cities are located in coastal areas, which results in serious environmental problems in both coastal land and ocean. In order to effectively manage such problems especially in coastal ocean, water quality should be monitored. As there are many factors that influence water quality, the Korean Government proposed an integrated Water Quality Index (WQI) based on in situ measurements of ocean parameters(bottom dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a concentration, secchi disk depth, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and dissolved inorganic phosphorus) by ocean division identified based on their ecological characteristics. Field-measured WQI, however, does not provide spatial continuity over vast areas. Satellite remote sensing can be an alternative for identifying WQI for surface water. In this study, two schemes were examined to estimate coastal WQI around Korea peninsula using in situ measurements data and Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) satellite imagery from 2011 to 2013 based on machine learning approaches. Scheme 1 calculates WQI using estimated water quality-related factors using GOCI reflectance data, and scheme 2 estimates WQI using GOCI band reflectance data and basic products(chlorophyll-a, suspended sediment, colored dissolved organic matter). Three machine learning approaches including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and a modified regression tree(Cubist) were used. Results show that estimation of secchi disk depth produced the highest accuracy among the ocean parameters, and RF performed best regardless of water quality-related factors. However, the accuracy of WQI from scheme 1 was lower than that from scheme 2 due to the estimation errors inherent from water quality-related factors and the uncertainty of bottom dissolved oxygen. In overall, scheme 2 appears more appropriate for estimating WQI for surface water in coastal areas and chlorophyll-a concentration was identified the most contributing factor to the estimation of WQI.ope

Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Estimation from CryoSat-2 Satellite Data Using Machine Learning-Based Lead Detection

Satellite altimeters have been used to monitor Arctic sea ice thickness since the early 2000s. In order to estimate sea ice thickness from satellite altimeter data, leads (i.e., cracks between ice floes) should first be identified for the calculation of sea ice freeboard. In this study, we proposed novel approaches for lead detection using two machine learning algorithms: decision trees and random forest. CryoSat-2 satellite data collected in March and April of 2011-2014 over the Arctic region were used to extract waveform parameters that show the characteristics of leads, ice floes and ocean, including stack standard deviation, stack skewness, stack kurtosis, pulse peakiness and backscatter sigma-0. The parameters were used to identify leads in the machine learning models. Results show that the proposed approaches, with overall accuracy >90%, produced much better performance than existing lead detection methods based on simple thresholding approaches. Sea ice thickness estimated based on the machine learning-detected leads was compared to the averaged Airborne Electromagnetic (AEM)-bird data collected over two days during the CryoSat Validation experiment (CryoVex) field campaign in April 2011. This comparison showed that the proposed machine learning methods had better performance (up to r = 0.83 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 0.29 m) compared to thickness estimation based on existing lead detection methods (RMSE = 0.86-0.93 m). Sea ice thickness based on the machine learning approaches showed a consistent decline from 2011-2013 and rebounded in 2014.open0

A systematic review of progress on hepatocellular carcinoma research over the past 30 years: a machine-learning-based bibliometric analysis

IntroductionResearch on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has grown significantly, and researchers cannot access the vast amount of literature. This study aimed to explore the research progress in studying HCC over the past 30 years using a machine learning-based bibliometric analysis and to suggest future research directions.MethodsComprehensive research was conducted between 1991 and 2020 in the public version of the PubMed database using the MeSH term “hepatocellular carcinoma.” The complete records of the collected results were downloaded in Extensible Markup Language format, and the metadata of each publication, such as the publication year, the type of research, the corresponding author’s country, the title, the abstract, and the MeSH terms, were analyzed. We adopted a latent Dirichlet allocation topic modeling method on the Python platform to analyze the research topics of the scientific publications.ResultsIn the last 30 years, there has been significant and constant growth in the annual publications about HCC (annual percentage growth rate: 7.34%). Overall, 62,856 articles related to HCC from the past 30 years were searched and finally included in this study. Among the diagnosis-related terms, “Liver Cirrhosis” was the most studied. However, in the 2010s, “Biomarkers, Tumor” began to outpace “Liver Cirrhosis.” Regarding the treatment-related MeSH terms, “Hepatectomy” was the most studied; however, recent studies related to “Antineoplastic Agents” showed a tendency to supersede hepatectomy. Regarding basic research, the study of “Cell Lines, Tumors,’’ appeared after 2000 and has been the most studied among these terms.ConclusionThis was the first machine learning-based bibliometric study to analyze more than 60,000 publications about HCC over the past 30 years. Despite significant efforts in analyzing the literature on basic research, its connection with the clinical field is still lacking. Therefore, more efforts are needed to convert and apply basic research results to clinical treatment. Additionally, it was found that microRNAs have potential as diagnostic and therapeutic targets for HCC

CryoSat Ice Baseline-D validation and evolutions

The ESA Earth Explorer CryoSat-2 was launched on 8 April 2010 to monitor the precise changes in the thickness of terrestrial ice sheets and marine floating ice. To do that, CryoSat orbits the planet at an altitude of around 720 km with a retrograde orbit inclination of 92∘ and a quasi repeat cycle of 369 d (30 d subcycle). To reach the mission goals, the CryoSat products have to meet the highest quality standards to date, achieved through continual improvements of the operational processing chains. The new CryoSat Ice Baseline-D, in operation since 27 May 2019, represents a major processor upgrade with respect to the previous Ice Baseline-C. Over land ice the new Baseline-D provides better results with respect to the previous baseline when comparing the data to a reference elevation model over the Austfonna ice cap region, improving the ascending and descending crossover statistics from 1.9 to 0.1 m. The improved processing of the star tracker measurements implemented in Baseline-D has led to a reduction in the standard deviation of the point-to-point comparison with the previous star tracker processing method implemented in Baseline-C from 3.8 to 3.7 m. Over sea ice, Baseline-D improves the quality of the retrieved heights inside and at the boundaries of the synthetic aperture radar interferometric (SARIn or SIN) acquisition mask, removing the negative freeboard pattern which is beneficial not only for freeboard retrieval but also for any application that exploits the phase information from SARIn Level 1B (L1B) products. In addition, scatter comparisons with the Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project (BGEP; https://www.whoi.edu/beaufortgyre, last access: October 2019) and Operation IceBridge (OIB; Kurtz et al., 2013) in situ measurements confirm the improvements in the Baseline-D freeboard product quality. Relative to OIB, the Baseline-D freeboard mean bias is reduced by about 8 cm, which roughly corresponds to a 60 % decrease with respect to Baseline-C. The BGEP data indicate a similar tendency with a mean draft bias lowered from 0.85 to −0.14 m. For the two in situ datasets, the root mean square deviation (RMSD) is also well reduced from 14 to 11 cm for OIB and by a factor of 2 for the BGEP. Observations over inland waters show a slight increase in the percentage of good observations in Baseline-D, generally around 5 %–10 % for most lakes. This paper provides an overview of the new Level 1 and Level 2 (L2) CryoSat Ice Baseline-D evolutions and related data quality assessment, based on results obtained from analyzing the 6-month Baseline-D test dataset released to CryoSat expert users prior to the final transfer to operations