International Trade in the Health Sector: Forgotten Frontier?

This issue of Commonwealth Trade Hot Topics provides an overview of international trade in health care goods and services, and highlights some opportunities and challenges, especially those relevant to developing countries

Modelling the Economic Impact of Brexit on the Welsh Economy

We provide an impact assessment of Brexit using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model. Three scenarios are considered: (a) no deal with the EU i.e. revert to WTO scenario in March 2019; (b) agree an extension to Article 50 between the UK and EU a status quo scenario; (c) negotiate a comprehensive EU-Canada style trade agreement between the EU and UK. We did not examine the option of EEA membership as this would cut across the UK Government?s red lines as announced in the Prime Minister?s Lancaster House speech. Our results show that the impact on the Welsh economy will be felt primarily through reductions in GDP, GDP per capita, trade, investment and employment. In sum, Wales loses under all scenarios, but with smaller losses under the status quo scenario. Continuation of an extended status quo for a limited period of time is the best policy option. A comprehensive EU-Canada style trade agreement is the next best option. Reverting to trading on WTO terms should there be a No Deal between the EU and UK, i.e. the two-year Article 50 process comes to an end without an agreement, will generate the highest losses.publishersversio

Regional Trade Agreements in the Atlantic Region: The Path to Global Trade Governance?

This paper explores whether Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) act as stumbling blocks or stepping stones to the development of the multilateral trading system. It does this by focusing on the governance structures of regional trade agreements in the Atlantic region and commenting on the evolving pattern of trade governance in the region. It conceptualises the evolution of these RTAs and how such agreements contribute to global trade and investment governance. It also comments on areas of convergence and divergence between these Atlantic RTAs and the WTO’s benchmarks for the operation of the multilateral system. It concludes that the Atlantic RTAs can and do act as potential stepping stones to the development of the multilateral trading system and comments that the recent signing of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement is a positive example of this. The paper also suggests that the adoption of the America First policy of the United States may well act as a brake on further developments in trade-creating RTAs adopting common or compatible governance structures

Is There Any Potential in Service Trade of South Asia?

: Like many developing economies, services have emerged as crucial economic activities in South Asia, yet this cannot increase the rapid growth in the intra-trade in the region. To find out the service trade potential in the region, this paper uses revealed comparative advantage indices to assess the comparative advantage and the indicative trade potential of different South Asian countries in various services sub-sectors. The study reveals that there stands complementarities in the trade of services as Pakistan and Sri Lanka have a competitive advantage in Transport Services, while India has a competitive advantage in Computer and Information Services and Other Business Services. In travel services, Maldives and Nepal possess competitiveness while Bangladesh in Government Services. The study reveals that competitive services have not explored the potential yet. India being the most robust economy of the region must provide a pivotal role in making negotiations and commitments under SAARC Agreement on Trade in Services (SATIS) particularly in competitive services

An anatomy of the impact of COVID-19 on the global and intra-Commonwealth trade in goods

This article employs gravity modeling to examine the effect of COVID-19 on global and intra-Commonwealth trade. It uses bilateral monthly exports, number of COVID-19 cases and deaths and the stringency of measures. The main novelty is the use of price indices as proxies for multilateral resistance terms, which allow us to identify, supply, and demand effects of COVID-19 on bilateral trade. The incidence of COVID-19 impacts Commonwealth trade flows, the effect varies with the development level. High numbers of COVID-19 cases, including deaths, in low-income importers reduced Commonwealth exports unlike high-income importers that show higher exports. The incidence of COVID in an exporters' neighbouring countries impacted trade and restrictions in high-income countries increased Commonwealth trade. Short-term trends project a negative change in both exports and imports of Commonwealth countries