Climate resilient and climate vulnerable WASH service delivery models in Melanesian urban informal settlements

The Planning for Climate-resilient Water, Sanitation and Hygiene in Urban Informal Settlements research objective was to investigate how urban planning processes in Melanesia be strengthened through participation and integration to improve the resilience of WASH service delivery in informal settlements within the urban footprint. By doing this, we seek to increase the inclusiveness of WASH planning in urban Melanesia so residents in informal settlements have access to more resilience WASH services. This study provides regionally appropriate evidence about what kinds of processes and systems could be explored within different urban contexts in Fiji, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea. The mixed methods research included desktop research, spatial analysis, household surveys, interviews, photovoice techniques, and stakeholder engagement. Based on this 1-year research program, some key lessons have emerged for practitioners and policymakers. This technical brief outlines some of the most important

Policy review – water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and climate change in urban planning systems in Melanesia

This document summarises a policy and legislation review conducted as part of the Water for Women funded research project conducted by the International WaterCentre (IWC), The University of the South Pacific (USP) and their partners. The overarching research question for this work is How can urban planning processes in Melanesia be strengthened through participation and integration to improve the resilience of WASH service delivery in informal settlements and areas identified for housing growth within the urban footprint? The sub-question this document intends to contribute towards is to: Understand what existing planning processes (knowledge, information systems/platforms, plans and policies) are in place for future and existing areas of growth and informal settlements. Following a broad overview of urban planning in Melanesia, this document is structured by city (Port Moresby, Suva, Port Vila and Honiara). The policy and legislative review attempted to collect the central documents for each of the following themes – urban planning, WASH, and climate change, as well as any overarching strategy or policy for development in the country of relevance. Fifty-eight (58) documents were reviewed across the four cities (Figure 1). In the following sections, those documents are briefly described, and then specific review of the main urban planning document for the city is reviewed using separate lenses of WASH; climate change; and informal settlements. Each of the documents was designated as (1) strategy, policy or implementation plan, (2) town planning scheme or urban development plan or (3) legislation or regulation; and further classified in terms of the dominant theme, as (1) cross-cutting (e.g., national sustainable development plans, (2) water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) and water resource management (WRM), (3) urban development or planning and (4) climate change. A comparison of terminology using a pairwise word search in each of the four thematic groupings was conducted to assess the integration of these themes within across documents. In addition to the review of documents, stakeholder interviews with key informants were conducted in Suva (Fiji) and Port Vila (Vanuatu) to better understand the current urban planning, WASH and climate change landscape in those cities. Interviews were conducted with water utilities (3), national government department officials (5), and local government officials (2)

Opportunities for collaborative and integrated planning processes for climate - resilient urban WASH in informal settlements

There are existing urban planning processes in Melanesian cities, however they are often reactionary, out-dated, and siloed from development requirements of specific sectors. • Those with responsibility for urban planning mostly don’t consider themselves to hold a mandate to be involved in WASH (water, sanitation and hygiene) service planning, or informal settlements, and water utilities mostly don’t consider themselves as leaders in planning WASH services in informal settlements due to tenure and urban planning constraints. There are examples of this changing. • Existing planning processes for WASH in urban Melanesia mostly don’t integrate climate resilience and adaptation information, activities and impacts. • There is some progress being made in Melanesian urban informal settlements with respect to formalisation and upgrading: Fiji is currently formalising 46 settlements across the country including service provision, Solomon Water has connected over 2,800 households in settlements to piped water in the last year, Papua New Guinea’s new Port Moresby Urban Development Plan describes their ongoing settlement upgrade process, and Vanuatu’s urban wastewater taskforce is considering sanitation in urban settlements. Notwithstanding progress, WASH services remain very unevenly distributed across Melanesian urban centres, particularly in urban informal settlements

flat10MIP: An emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero, and negative CO2 emissions

The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth System Models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from this behavior could impact estimates of required net zero timings and negative emissions requirements to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. However, existing ESM diagnostic experiments do not allow for direct estimation of these deviations as a function of defined emissions pathways. Here we perform a set of climate model diagnostic experiments for the assessment of Transient Climate Response to cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC), and climate reversibility metrics in an emissions-driven framework. The emissions-driven experiments provide consistent independent variables simplifying simulation, analysis and interpretation with emissions rates more comparable to recent levels than existing protocols using model-specific compatible emissions from the CMIP DECK 1pctCO2 experiment, where emissions are strongly weighted towards the end of the experiment at significantly greater than present day values. A base experiment, ‘esm-flat10’, has constant emissions of CO2 of 10 GtC per year (near-present day values), and initial results show that TCRE estimated in this experiment is about 0.1 K less than that obtained using 1pctCO2. A subset of ESMs exhibit land carbon sinks which saturate during this experiment. A branch experiment, esm-flat10-zec, measures ZEC, which we find is reduced by 25–50 % compared with 1pctCO2 branch experiments. A final experiment, esm-flat10-cdr, assesses climate reversibility under negative emissions, where we find that peak warming may occur before or after net zero and residual warming after removal of all greenhouse gases is well described by ZEC in most models and that current Simple Climate Model (SCM) distributions may be over-estimate temperature reversibility compared with ESMs. We propose a set of climate diagnostic indicators to quantify various aspects of climate reversibility. These experiments were suggested as potential candidates in CMIP7 and have since been adopted as “fast track” simulations

Formative Research Using Settings and Motives to Explore Child Faeces Disposal and Management in Rural Solomon Islands.

Unsafe child faeces management can lead to adverse health and wellbeing outcomes for children. In Solomon Islands, diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of under-5 mortality, though there is limited research into CFM practices and promotion of safe behaviours. The formative research applied a Behaviour-Centred Design framework to investigate the habits, motives and settings related to child faeces management in rural Solomon Islands villages. Data were collected through structured recall demonstrations by caregivers (n = 61), household infrastructure observations (n = 57), semi-structured interviews with caregivers (n = 121) and community leaders (n = 30), focus group discussions (n = 26), and three participatory activities with caregivers. The findings identified a range of CFM-related behaviours, some of which would be considered safe and some, such as outside defecation and disposal to a waterway, as unsafe. Convenience is important in shaping CFM practice and may help health benefits to be achieved without women bearing the cost of an increased work burden. Nurture and disgust may provide the basis for behaviour change communication in SI as they have elsewhere. Critically, the participation in and promotion of safe CFM by fathers in households should be promoted, and motivating such behaviours might be achieved through focus on nurture as a motive

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).</p

The Community Land Model version 5 : description of new features, benchmarking, and impact of forcing uncertainty

The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is used in several global and regional modeling systems. In this paper, we introduce model developments included in CLM version 5 (CLM5), which is the default land component for CESM2. We assess an ensemble of simulations, including prescribed and prognostic vegetation state, multiple forcing data sets, and CLM4, CLM4.5, and CLM5, against a range of metrics including from the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMBv2) package. CLM5 includes new and updated processes and parameterizations: (1) dynamic land units, (2) updated parameterizations and structure for hydrology and snow (spatially explicit soil depth, dry surface layer, revised groundwater scheme, revised canopy interception and canopy snow processes, updated fresh snow density, simple firn model, and Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport), (3) plant hydraulics and hydraulic redistribution, (4) revised nitrogen cycling (flexible leaf stoichiometry, leaf N optimization for photosynthesis, and carbon costs for plant nitrogen uptake), (5) global crop model with six crop types and time‐evolving irrigated areas and fertilization rates, (6) updated urban building energy, (7) carbon isotopes, and (8) updated stomatal physiology. New optional features include demographically structured dynamic vegetation model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator), ozone damage to plants, and fire trace gas emissions coupling to the atmosphere. Conclusive establishment of improvement or degradation of individual variables or metrics is challenged by forcing uncertainty, parametric uncertainty, and model structural complexity, but the multivariate metrics presented here suggest a general broad improvement from CLM4 to CLM5

Basic science232. Certolizumab pegol prevents pro-inflammatory alterations in endothelial cell function

Background: Cardiovascular disease is a major comorbidity of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and a leading cause of death. Chronic systemic inflammation involving tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF) could contribute to endothelial activation and atherogenesis. A number of anti-TNF therapies are in current use for the treatment of RA, including certolizumab pegol (CZP), (Cimzia ®; UCB, Belgium). Anti-TNF therapy has been associated with reduced clinical cardiovascular disease risk and ameliorated vascular function in RA patients. However, the specific effects of TNF inhibitors on endothelial cell function are largely unknown. Our aim was to investigate the mechanisms underpinning CZP effects on TNF-activated human endothelial cells. Methods: Human aortic endothelial cells (HAoECs) were cultured in vitro and exposed to a) TNF alone, b) TNF plus CZP, or c) neither agent. Microarray analysis was used to examine the transcriptional profile of cells treated for 6 hrs and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) analysed gene expression at 1, 3, 6 and 24 hrs. NF-κB localization and IκB degradation were investigated using immunocytochemistry, high content analysis and western blotting. Flow cytometry was conducted to detect microparticle release from HAoECs. Results: Transcriptional profiling revealed that while TNF alone had strong effects on endothelial gene expression, TNF and CZP in combination produced a global gene expression pattern similar to untreated control. The two most highly up-regulated genes in response to TNF treatment were adhesion molecules E-selectin and VCAM-1 (q 0.2 compared to control; p > 0.05 compared to TNF alone). The NF-κB pathway was confirmed as a downstream target of TNF-induced HAoEC activation, via nuclear translocation of NF-κB and degradation of IκB, effects which were abolished by treatment with CZP. In addition, flow cytometry detected an increased production of endothelial microparticles in TNF-activated HAoECs, which was prevented by treatment with CZP. Conclusions: We have found at a cellular level that a clinically available TNF inhibitor, CZP reduces the expression of adhesion molecule expression, and prevents TNF-induced activation of the NF-κB pathway. Furthermore, CZP prevents the production of microparticles by activated endothelial cells. This could be central to the prevention of inflammatory environments underlying these conditions and measurement of microparticles has potential as a novel prognostic marker for future cardiovascular events in this patient group. Disclosure statement: Y.A. received a research grant from UCB. I.B. received a research grant from UCB. S.H. received a research grant from UCB. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interes