Model confidence sets and forecast combination: an application to age-specific mortality

Background: Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. Objective: The crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in the determination of optimal weights from a finite sample. If the weights are selected sub-optimally, this can affect the accuracy of the model-averaged forecasts. Instead of choosing the optimal weights, we consider trimming a set of models before equally averaging forecasts from the selected superior models. Motivated by Hansen et al. (2011), we apply and evaluate the model confidence set procedure when combining mortality forecasts. Data & Methods: The proposed model averaging procedure is motivated by Samuels and Sekkel (2017) based on the concept of model confidence sets as proposed by Hansen et al. (2011) that incorporates the statistical significance of the forecasting performance. As the model confidence level increases, the set of superior models generally decreases. The proposed model averaging procedure is demonstrated via national and sub-national Japanese mortality for retirement ages between 60 and 100+. Results: Illustrated by national and sub-national Japanese mortality for ages between 60 and 100+, the proposed model-average procedure gives the smallest interval forecast errors, especially for males. Conclusion: We find that robust out-of-sample point and interval forecasts may be obtained from the trimming method. By robust, we mean robustness against model misspecification

No evidence of an association between mitochondrial DNA variants and osteoarthritis in 7393 cases and 5122 controls.

OBJECTIVES: Osteoarthritis (OA) has a complex aetiology with a strong genetic component. Genome-wide association studies implicate several nuclear genes in the aetiology, but a major component of the heritability has yet to be defined at the molecular level. Initial studies implicate maternally inherited variants of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) in subgroups of patients with OA based on gender and specific joint involvement, but these findings have not been replicated. METHODS: The authors studied 138 maternally inherited mtDNA variants genotyped in a two cohort genetic association study across a total of 7393 OA cases from the arcOGEN consortium and 5122 controls genotyped in the Wellcome Trust Case Control consortium 2 study. RESULTS: Following data quality control we examined 48 mtDNA variants that were common in cohort 1 and cohort 2, and found no association with OA. None of the phenotypic subgroups previously associated with mtDNA haplogroups were associated in this study. CONCLUSIONS: We were not able to replicate previously published findings in the largest mtDNA association study to date. The evidence linking OA to mtDNA is not compelling at present

A simplified (modified) Duke Activity Status Index (M-DASI) to characterise functional capacity: A secondary analysis of the Measurement of Exercise Tolerance before Surgery (METS) study

Background Accurate assessment of functional capacity, a predictor of postoperative morbidity and mortality, is essential to improving surgical planning and outcomes. We assessed if all 12 items of the Duke Activity Status Index (DASI) were equally important in reflecting exercise capacity. Methods In this secondary cross-sectional analysis of the international, multicentre Measurement of Exercise Tolerance before Surgery (METS) study, we assessed cardiopulmonary exercise testing and DASI data from 1455 participants. Multivariable regression analyses were used to revise the DASI model in predicting an anaerobic threshold (AT) >11 ml kg −1 min −1 and peak oxygen consumption (VO 2 peak) >16 ml kg −1 min −1, cut-points that represent a reduced risk of postoperative complications. Results Five questions were identified to have dominance in predicting AT>11 ml kg −1 min −1 and VO 2 peak>16 ml.kg −1min −1. These items were included in the M-DASI-5Q and retained utility in predicting AT>11 ml.kg −1.min −1 (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic [AUROC]-AT: M-DASI-5Q=0.67 vs original 12-question DASI=0.66) and VO 2 peak (AUROC-VO2 peak: M-DASI-5Q 0.73 vs original 12-question DASI 0.71). Conversely, in a sensitivity analysis we removed one potentially sensitive question related to the ability to have sexual relations, and the ability of the remaining four questions (M-DASI-4Q) to predict an adequate functional threshold remained no worse than the original 12-question DASI model. Adding a dynamic component to the M-DASI-4Q by assessing the chronotropic response to exercise improved its ability to discriminate between those with VO 2 peak>16 ml.kg −1.min −1 and VO 2 peak<16 ml.kg −1.min −1. Conclusions The M-DASI provides a simple screening tool for further preoperative evaluation, including with cardiopulmonary exercise testing, to guide perioperative management

Disentangling the Trichoderma viridescens complex

Trichoderma viridescens is recognised as a species complex. Multigene analyses based on the translation elongation factor 1-alpha encoding gene (tef1), a part of the rpb2 gene, encoding the second largest RNA polymerase subunit and the larger subunit of ATP citrate lyase (acl1) reveals 13 phylogenetic species with little or no phenotypic differentiation. This is the first use of acl1 in Trichoderma phylogenetics. The typification of T. viridescens s.str. is clarified and Hypocrea viridescens is replaced by the new name T. paraviridescens. Besides these two species, eleven are phylogenetically recognised and T. olivascens, T. viridarium, T. virilente, T. trixiae, T. viridialbum, T. appalachiense, T. neosinense, T. composticola, T. nothescens and T. sempervirentis are formally described and illustrated. Several species produce yellow diffusing pigment on cornmeal dextrose agar, particularly after storage at 15 °C, while T. olivascens is characterised by the formation of an olivaceous pigment. The results are compared with earlier publications on this group of species

Correlation of electroencephalogram, respiration and movement in the Rett syndrome

Day time video records of 14 girls with the Rett syndrome (RS) (6-17, mean 7 years) were analysed to correlate episodic abnormalities in respiration, movement and electroencephalograms (EEG). Records were compared with those of 12 healthy girls (6-18, median 14 years) who hyperventilated voluntarily. Three RS girls (6-7 years) had minimal respiratory dysrhythmia and showed no correlation between EEG respiration and movement. The other 11 RS girls (6-17 years) had severe awake respiratory dysrhythmia; 10 showing hyperventilation (with hypocapnia) which alternated with active expiratory apnoeic pauses and one with the latter only. All had periods of awake regular breathing with normal respiratory gases. In these girls EEG showed non-epileptic generalised slow activity some of which was paroxysmal. In the six youngest (6-10 years) of these 11 RS girls, non-epileptic paroxysms of EEG slow activity at 1 1/2-4 Hz occurred and were associated with periods of normal breathing and normal pCO2 levels whether girls were alert, drowsy or asleep, but were uncommon during episodes of hyperventilation (and hypocapnia). In four of these girls the EEG paroxysms occupied less than or equal to 1-3% of the time during periods of respiratory dysrhythmia (81 minutes) and 8-100% of the time during alert periods with normal breathing (29 minutes), p less than or equal to 0.001 for this difference. Short bursts of EEG slowing occasionally followed prolonged apnoeic pauses. In two cases brief partial complex seizures occurred. In five of these girls stereotypic movements exacerbated during episodes of respiratory dysrhythmia and reduced during normal breathing

Supplementary Material for: Sex differences in health conditions associated with sexual assault in a large hospital population

Introduction: Sexual assault is an urgent public health concern with both immediate and long-lasting health consequences, affecting 44% of women and 25% of men during their lifetimes. Large studies are needed to understand the unique healthcare needs of this patient population. Methods: We mined clinical notes to identify patients with a history of sexual assault in the electronic health record (EHR) at Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC), a large university hospital in the Southeastern United States, from 1989 to 2021 (N=3,376,424). Using a phenome-wide case-control study, we identified diagnoses co-occurring with disclosures of sexual assault. We performed interaction tests to examine whether sex modified any of these associations. Association analyses were restricted to a subset of patients receiving regular care at VUMC (N=833,185). Results: The phenotyping approach identified 14,496 individuals (0.43%) across the VUMC-EHR with documentation of sexual assault and achieved a positive predictive value of 93.0% (95% CI=85.6%-97.0%), determined by manual patient chart review. Out of 1,703 clinical diagnoses tested across all subgroup analyses, 465 were associated with sexual assault. Sex-by-trauma interaction analysis revealed 55 sex-differential associations and demonstrated increased odds of psychiatric diagnoses in male survivors. Discussion / Conclusion: This case-control study identified associations between disclosures of sexual assault and hundreds of health conditions, many of which demonstrated sex-differential effects. The findings of this study suggest that patients who have experienced sexual assault are at risk for developing wide-ranging medical and psychiatric comorbidities and that male survivors may be particularly vulnerable to developing mental illness