Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Escolaridade e volume de produção têm associação com a percepção de risco de produtores de leite no uso de produtos veterinários

O presente estudo teve por objetivo avaliar a correspondência entre fatores socioeconômicos de 171 produtores de leite (escolaridade, volume de produção diária e tempo na atividade) de 96 municípios do Estado de São Paulo, e a percepção de risco no uso de produtos veterinários, por meio de entrevista individual e da análise de correspondência múltipla. Produtores com grau de escolaridade fundamental tendem a ordenhar animais tratados com carrapaticidas, não descartar o leite de vacas em tratamento para mastite, não receber bonificação por qualidade e não usar EPIs. Já produtores com grau de instrução superior tendem a declarar que descartam o leite de vacas em tratamento para a mastite, a receber bonificação por qualidade, a participar de treinamento e a usar EPIs. Produtores com menos de 50 litros de leite diários tendem a declarar que não observam o período de carência dos produtos veterinários e são os que mais responderam incorretamente o período de carência de dois produtos empregados na propriedade, vermifugam animais em lactação e não recebem bonificação por qualidade. Produtores com mais de 500 litros de leite diários tendem a declarar que observam o período de carência dos produtos veterinários, tendem a responder corretamente o período de carência de dois produtos, a receber bonificação por qualidade, a participar de treinamento e a usar EPIs. Foi possível evidenciar que dentro das variáveis selecionadas há categorias ou grupos de produtores de leite para os quais o perigo sanitário é mais visível e outros para os quais o perigo é menos visível. Nesse contexto, é necessário e urgente a execução de programas sanitários contemporâneos nas unidades rurais de produção de leite, a atualização dos serviços de assistência técnica e extensão rural (pública e privada), com enfoque distinto e complementar ao atual e o desenvolvimento de ações efetivas de educação sanitária

Estratégia para erradicação de focos da Doença de Aujeszky em suínos no Estado de São Paulo

Este trabalho teve como objetivo a avaliação de duas estratégias para erradicação de focos da doença de Aujeszky (DA) em suínos criados comercialmente no estado de São Paulo. Foram identificados dois focos da enfermidade, no município de Cerqueira César, um apresentando somente animais sororreagentes (Foco 1) e outro, casos clínicos da doença (Foco 2). Foram avaliadas duas estratégias de erradicação, uma por eliminação dos sororreagentes e outra por despovoamento gradual, com acompanhamento durante 12 meses. A erradicação por eliminação dos sororreagentes foi aplicada no Foco 1 e compreendeu na identificação por exame sorológico, isolamento e abate dos positivos; vacinação dos negativos e reposição no plantel com animais provenientes de propriedade livre. No início dos trabalhos, 68% do plantel era positivo e ao final 51%. No Foco 2 utilizou-se o despovoamento gradual, onde todos os animais foram enviados ao abate sanitário, realizado vazio sanitário nas instalações, seguido pelo repovoamento com animais livres. Esta última estratégia, nas condições desse trabalho, mostrou-se a mais eficaz, pois erradicou a DA.This study aimed to evaluate strategies for eradication of Aujeszky Disease (AD) virus infection after outbreaks in swine production systems in São Paulo state. Two outbreaks were identified in Cerqueira César county. The first outbreak coursed with seropositive pigs (outbreak 1), and the other with pigs presenting clinical signs (outbreak 2). In order to eradicate the infection, two sanitary strategies were tested: (1) eradication of animals with positive serology and (2) by gradual depopulation, with a follow up of 12 months. The serology eradication was used in outbreak 1, and included the identification, isolation and slaughter of positive animals; followed by vaccination of negative animals and replacement with pigs from farms free of the disease. At the beginning, 68% of pigs were positive, and at the end it declined to 51%. In outbreak 2, gradual depopulation was used, and all animals were sent to sanitary slaughter, until facilities were completely empty. Afterwards, animals free of the disease were used for repopulation. It was seen that the last strategy was more effective because eradicated the infection

Geographical Distribution of Vampire Bat-related Cattle Rabies in Brazil

Seventy-seven rabies virus (RV) isolates originating from Brazilian cattle were genetically characterized. Partial nucleoprotein gene sequences of these isolates were phylogenetically and geographically analyzed. Cattle isolates, which clustered with the vampire bat-related RV group, were further subdivided into nine genetic subgroups. These subgroups were distributed widely in lowland regions, with some subgroups separated from each other by mountain ranges. In addition, separation of the groups in mountainous regions was correlated with altitude. These results indicate that cattle rabies is derived from several regionally-defined variants, which suggests that its geographical distribution is related to that of the vampire bat population

Geographical Distribution of Vampire Bat-related Cattle Rabies in Brazil

Seventy-seven rabies virus (RV) isolates originating from Brazilian cattle were genetically characterized. Partial nucleoprotein gene sequences of these isolates were phylogenetically and geographically analyzed. Cattle isolates, which clustered with the vampire bat-related RV group, were further subdivided into nine genetic subgroups. These subgroups were distributed widely in lowland regions, with some subgroups separated from each other by mountain ranges. In addition, separation of the groups in mountainous regions was correlated with altitude. These results indicate that cattle rabies is derived from several regionally-defined variants, which suggests that its geographical distribution is related to that of the vampire bat population